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Southern Miss vs Texas State Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 09 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 80-70 (OT)
29-28 36-37 15-5
Position#174
Record9-7
FormWLLWW
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game73.3
vs
Position#125
Record9-7
FormWLWLW
Points / game74.8
Allowed / game71.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Southern Miss v Texas State
08 Jan 2026
SOUT80
TEXA70
11 Jan 2025
SOUT92
TEXA88
07 Mar 2024
SOUT59
TEXA75
17 Feb 2024
SOUT78
TEXA74
28 Jan 2023
SOUT67
TEXA58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southern Miss winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Texas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southern MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Martin
#72
W
70-60
70
60
+10
H23/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
82-75
82
75
+7
A04/12
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
64-88
64
88
-24
A06/12
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
67-71
67
71
-4
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H19/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
86-93
86
93
-7
H20/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
62-90
62
90
-28
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
87-73
87
73
+14
A01/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
74-67
74
67
+7
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
41-22
29-38
31-29
51-46
34-34
30-54
29-31
39-29
29-31
38-40
24-17
38-37
32-39
54-54
30-41
32-49
45-38
42-35
33-27
41-40
145.3Avg total
72.2Scored
73.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)76.173.3149.4+2.856%
Season at home (7)79.066.6145.6+12.486%
Season away (9)73.878.6152.3-4.833%
Last 10 (10)72.273.1145.3-0.960%
Last 5 (5)74.275.4149.6-1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)69.078.8147.8-9.810%
vs Similar ◀ (14)70.674.1144.6-3.536%
vs Weaker (6)81.765.5147.2+16.2100%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UALR
#295
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
93-41
93
41
+52
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
52-66
52
66
-14
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
74-78 OT
74
78
-4
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
70-89
70
89
-19
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
67-65
67
65
+2
H20/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
80-100
80
100
-20
A31/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
84-79
84
79
+5
A03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
28-26
37-30
51-27
42-14
33-33
19-33
34-34
32-32
28-40
44-37
38-38
48-45
32-41
38-48
25-39
42-26
33-45
47-55
46-40
38-39
147.7Avg total
74.3Scored
73.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)74.871.0145.8+3.856%
Season at home (10)78.965.2144.1+13.780%
Season away (6)67.880.7148.5-12.817%
Last 10 (10)74.373.4147.7+0.950%
Last 5 (5)77.483.2160.6-5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)69.080.7149.7-11.717%
vs Similar ◀ (9)74.881.8156.6-7.033%
vs Weaker (15)77.365.5142.8+11.773%
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: -2.8-2.82nd half: +2.8+2.8
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.9+1.91st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: -2.8-2.82nd half: +2.8+2.8
Southern MissTexas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Southern MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Martin
#72
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H23/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A04/12
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A06/12
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
29-31
29
31
-2
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
24-17
24
17
+7
H19/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H20/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A01/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
33-27
33
27
+6
A03/01
NCAA
63.7Avg total
32.8Scored
30.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.534.467.9-0.940%-
Last 30 at home (14)33.832.165.9+1.743%-
Last 30 away (16)33.236.469.6-3.238%-
Last 10 (10)32.830.963.7+1.950%-
Last 5 (5)32.832.465.2+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)33.737.070.7-3.330%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)31.433.665.1-2.229%-
vs Weaker (6)37.831.869.7+6.083%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UALR
#295
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H20/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A31/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A03/01
NCAA
71.1Avg total
34.8Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.233.668.8+1.643%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.232.468.7+3.850%-
Last 30 away (12)33.735.268.9-1.633%-
Last 10 (10)34.836.371.1-1.530%-
Last 5 (5)34.840.675.4-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)33.036.569.5-3.517%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)31.338.269.6-6.90%-
vs Weaker (15)38.429.668.0+8.880%-
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Southern Miss wins
3
Texas State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26ALouisiana Lafayette74-67
01/01/26ALouisiana Monroe87-73
30/12/25ALSU62-90
20/12/25HArkansas State86-93
19/12/25HLouisiana Lafayette62-54
13/12/25AOle Miss67-71
09/12/25HGrambling St.68-60
06/12/25AMiami (FL)64-88
04/12/25ARadford82-75
23/11/25HUT Martin70-60
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26ALouisiana Monroe84-79
31/12/25ATroy80-100
20/12/25HSouth Alabama67-65
18/12/25HArkansas State70-89
11/12/25HSouthern Univ.86-83
04/12/25ARice72-77
29/11/25HLehigh74-78 OT
28/11/25ASeattle52-66
25/11/25HTexas Lutheran93-41
22/11/25HUALR65-56

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southern Miss
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW56%
HomeWWWWL86%
AwayLLLWW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %56%86%33%
Points / game76.179.073.8
Allowed / game73.366.678.6
Point differential+2.8+12.4-4.8
Avg total149.4145.6152.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%43%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)-0% (3)
Overtime %6%0%11%
Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW56%
HomeWLWLW80%
AwayLLLLW17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16106
Win %56%80%17%
Points / game74.878.967.8
Allowed / game71.065.280.7
Point differential+3.8+13.7-12.8
Avg total145.8144.1148.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %6%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Georgia Southern1712571%84.479.4+5.1
2 Arkansas State1611569%83.377.8+5.6
3 Marshall1611569%79.874.9+4.9
4 Troy1610662%85.777.4+8.3
5 Appalachian State1710759%73.166.7+6.4
6 South Alabama169756%72.467.9+4.5
7 Texas State169756%74.871.0+3.8
8 Southern Miss169756%76.173.3+2.8
9 James Madison168850%75.177.0-1.9
10 Coastal Carolina178947%72.872.4+0.4
11 Old Dominion1751229%73.677.4-3.8
12 Georgia State1751229%69.674.9-5.3
13 Louisiana Monroe1631319%74.283.2-9.0
14 Louisiana Lafayette1631319%58.568.6-10.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Southern Miss29361580
Texas State2837570
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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