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Texas State vs Southern Miss Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 18 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 85-82 (OT)
39-39 38-38 8-5
Position#207
Record10-8
FormLLWLW
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game71.1
vs
Position#324
Record8-10
FormLLWWL
Points / game73.3
Allowed / game76.5
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Texas State v Southern Miss
13 Nov 2026
TEXA v SOUT
upcoming
06 Mar 2026
TEXA77
SOUT81
17 Jan 2026
TEXA74
SOUT67
18 Jan 2025
TEXA85
SOUT82
03 Feb 2024
TEXA60
SOUT55
24 Feb 2023
TEXA69
SOUT79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Southern Miss winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlington Baptist Patriots
#621
W
97-49
97
49
+48
H05/12
NCAA
Rice
#281
W
75-66
75
66
+9
H08/12
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#162
L
80-89
80
89
-9
A14/12
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#201
W
83-61
83
61
+22
H21/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H29/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A03/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
L
61-72
61
72
-11
A04/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
74-73
74
73
+1
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
A11/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
94-80
94
80
+14
H16/01
NCAA
1H
2H
50-29
47-20
35-31
40-35
40-43
40-46
42-33
41-28
39-32
33-48
25-37
46-40
30-38
31-34
32-41
42-32
30-45
46-31
46-35
48-45
153.4Avg total
79.5Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)77.271.1148.2+6.156%
Season at home (9)81.065.4146.4+15.678%
Season away (9)73.376.7150.0-3.333%
Last 10 (10)79.573.9153.4+5.650%
Last 5 (5)77.678.8156.4-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)71.571.8143.3-0.367%
vs Similar (14)70.670.6141.1+0.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)84.068.6152.6+15.470%
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulane
#139
L
58-86
58
86
-28
A11/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#73
L
46-77
46
77
-31
H14/12
NCAA
Lamar
#123
L
65-69
65
69
-4
H18/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
68-66
68
66
+2
H21/12
NCAA
William Carey
#426
W
80-70
80
70
+10
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
72-83
72
83
-11
A03/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
W
84-67
84
67
+17
H10/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
92-88 OT
92
88
+4
H11/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
62-75
62
75
-13
A16/01
NCAA
1H
2H
23-38
35-48
28-38
18-39
31-36
34-33
39-34
29-32
35-31
45-39
31-33
41-50
38-38
33-36
39-40
45-27
45-30
31-46
33-42
29-33
145.3Avg total
69.8Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)73.376.5149.8-3.244%
Season at home (10)76.369.9146.2+6.480%
Season away (8)69.584.8154.2-15.20%
Last 10 (10)69.875.5145.3-5.740%
Last 5 (5)76.277.4153.6-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)70.278.1148.2-7.938%
vs Similar (11)69.571.7141.2-2.327%
vs Weaker (3)87.369.3156.7+18.0100%
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: +5.5+5.52nd half: -4.3-4.3
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +0.5+0.51st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: +5.5+5.52nd half: -4.3-4.3
Texas StateSouthern Miss
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlington Baptist Patriots
#621
W
50-29
50
29
+21
H05/12
NCAA
Rice
#281
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H08/12
NCAA
Florida Atlantic
#162
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#201
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H21/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H29/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
25-37
25
37
-12
A03/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A04/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A11/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H16/01
NCAA
73.3Avg total
36.9Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.033.567.6+0.553%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.331.468.6+5.979%-
Last 30 away (16)31.235.466.6-4.231%-
Last 10 (10)36.936.473.3+0.550%-
Last 5 (5)32.639.271.8-6.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)29.536.265.7-6.733%-
vs Similar (14)32.633.465.9-0.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)38.832.271.0+6.670%-
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulane
#139
L
23-38
23
38
-15
A11/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#73
L
28-38
28
38
-10
H14/12
NCAA
Lamar
#123
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H18/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H21/12
NCAA
William Carey
#426
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A03/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#346
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H10/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H11/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A16/01
NCAA
70.2Avg total
34.2Scored
36.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.337.070.3-3.827%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.233.968.1+0.441%-
Last 30 away (13)32.041.273.2-9.28%-
Last 10 (10)34.236.070.2-1.830%-
Last 5 (5)37.236.673.8+0.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)32.938.671.5-5.825%-
vs Similar (11)32.036.068.0-4.018%-
vs Weaker (3)40.032.372.3+7.767%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Texas State wins
4
Southern Miss wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/01/25HGeorgia State94-80
11/01/25ASouthern Miss88-92 OT
10/01/25ATroy74-73
04/01/25AAppalachian State61-72
03/01/25AMarshall71-77
29/12/24HUT Arlington72-80
21/12/24HGeorgia Southern83-61
14/12/24AFlorida Atlantic80-89
08/12/24HRice75-66
05/12/24HArlington Baptist Patriots97-49
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/01/25ASouth Alabama62-75
11/01/25HTexas State92-88 OT
10/01/25HLouisiana Monroe84-67
04/01/25AOld Dominion71-74
03/01/25AJames Madison72-83
31/12/24HWilliam Carey80-70
21/12/24HMarshall68-66
18/12/24HLamar65-69
14/12/24HOle Miss46-77
11/12/24ATulane58-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW56%
HomeWWWLW78%
AwayLLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %56%78%33%
Points / game77.281.073.3
Allowed / game71.165.476.7
Point differential+6.1+15.6-3.3
Avg total148.2146.4150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%56%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)-50% (4)
Overtime %6%0%11%
Southern Miss
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL44%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18108
Win %44%80%0%
Points / game73.376.369.5
Allowed / game76.569.984.8
Point differential-3.2+6.4-15.2
Avg total149.8146.2154.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %6%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 South Alabama1914574%73.961.6+12.3
2 Arkansas State1914574%79.170.1+9.0
3 Appalachian State1811761%69.662.2+7.4
4 Troy1811761%73.566.4+7.1
5 Texas State1810856%77.271.1+6.1
6 Marshall2011955%75.071.0+4.0
7 James Madison1910953%72.769.7+2.9
8 Georgia Southern1910953%74.078.8-4.8
9 Southern Miss1881044%73.376.5-3.2
10 Coastal Carolina1981142%69.269.7-0.6
11 Old Dominion1981142%67.972.4-4.5
12 Georgia State1971237%72.279.3-7.1
13 Louisiana Lafayette1961332%65.975.2-9.3
14 Louisiana Monroe2041620%70.273.5-3.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Texas State3938885
Southern Miss3938582
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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