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Texas State vs South Alabama Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 20 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 20:30
Final 67-65
25-39 42-26
Position#125
Record7-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game68.6
vs
Position#120
Record7-5
FormWLLLW
Points / game74.8
Allowed / game70.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Texas State v South Alabama
20 Dec 2025
TEXA67
SOUT65
22 Feb 2025
TEXA93
SOUT92
01 Feb 2024
TEXA74
SOUT66
22 Feb 2023
TEXA67
SOUT76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
South Alabama winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H13/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H15/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H19/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
93-41
93
41
+52
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
52-66
52
66
-14
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
74-78 OT
74
78
-4
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
70-89
70
89
-19
H18/12
NCAA
1H
2H
38-26
42-43
47-30
30-37
32-22
31-27
28-26
37-30
51-27
42-14
33-33
19-33
34-34
32-32
28-40
44-37
38-38
48-45
32-41
38-48
140.7Avg total
73.2Scored
67.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)74.268.6142.8+5.654%
Season at home (9)80.265.2145.4+15.078%
Season away (4)60.876.2137.0-15.50%
Last 10 (10)73.267.5140.7+5.760%
Last 5 (5)70.878.6149.4-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)69.779.6149.3-9.929%
vs Similar ◀ (7)75.181.6156.7-6.429%
vs Weaker (16)78.667.2145.8+11.369%
This opponent (South Alabama) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South AlabamaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spring Hill
#617
W
99-50
99
50
+49
H08/11
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H13/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
L
62-72
62
72
-10
H15/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
71-65
71
65
+6
A20/11
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
72-80
72
80
-8
A22/11
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
82-58
82
58
+24
A30/11
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
L
75-77
75
77
-2
H03/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
65-91
65
91
-26
A06/12
NCAA
North Texas
#138
L
57-58
57
58
-1
H14/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
96-92 OT
96
92
+4
A18/12
NCAA
1H
2H
60-32
39-18
35-30
31-34
28-33
34-39
25-31
46-34
26-36
46-44
44-31
38-27
36-32
39-45
31-36
34-55
26-30
31-28
27-45
44-26
145.2Avg total
74.5Scored
70.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)74.870.9145.7+3.858%
Season at home (6)72.565.2137.7+7.350%
Season away (6)77.076.7153.7+0.367%
Last 10 (10)74.570.7145.2+3.850%
Last 5 (5)75.075.2150.2-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)65.091.0156.0-26.00%
vs Similar ◀ (11)67.568.5136.0-1.145%
vs Weaker (17)74.868.0142.8+6.871%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.4+4.41st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: +1.7+1.72nd half: +3.2+3.2
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.4+4.41st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: +1.7+1.72nd half: +3.2+3.2
Texas StateSouth Alabama
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
38-26
38
26
+12
H13/11
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H15/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H19/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H18/12
NCAA
67.8Avg total
36.1Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.333.568.8+1.943%-
Last 30 at home (18)37.432.269.6+5.256%-
Last 30 away (12)32.235.367.6-3.125%-
Last 10 (10)36.131.767.8+4.450%-
Last 5 (5)33.037.270.2-4.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.937.170.0-4.314%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)32.037.169.1-5.10%-
vs Weaker (16)37.930.268.1+7.675%-
This opponent (South Alabama) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
South AlabamaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spring Hill
#617
W
60-32
60
32
+28
H08/11
NCAA
Central Michigan
#323
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H13/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H15/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
L
25-31
25
31
-6
A20/11
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
26-36
26
36
-10
A22/11
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
44-31
44
31
+13
A30/11
NCAA
New Mexico State
#178
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H03/12
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A06/12
NCAA
North Texas
#138
L
26-30
26
30
-4
H14/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
L
27-45
27
45
-18
A18/12
NCAA
67.4Avg total
33.8Scored
33.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.331.465.7+2.953%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.531.568.0+5.167%-
Last 30 away (15)32.131.363.4+0.740%-
Last 10 (10)33.833.667.4+0.240%-
Last 5 (5)32.834.867.6-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)31.036.067.0-5.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)31.830.462.2+1.545%-
vs Weaker (17)34.631.866.4+2.859%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Texas State wins
4
South Alabama wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/12/25HArkansas State70-89
11/12/25HSouthern Univ.86-83
04/12/25ARice72-77
29/11/25HLehigh74-78 OT
28/11/25ASeattle52-66
25/11/25HTexas Lutheran93-41
22/11/25HUALR65-56
19/11/25HAbilene Christian63-49
15/11/25HTexas Southern77-67
13/11/25HUTSA Roadrunners80-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/12/25ALouisiana Monroe96-92 OT
14/12/25HNorth Texas57-58
06/12/25AEast Tennessee St65-91
03/12/25HNew Mexico State75-77
30/11/25AUTSA Roadrunners82-58
22/11/25AUAB72-80
20/11/25AJacksonville State71-65
15/11/25HCoppin State62-72
13/11/25HCentral Michigan66-64
08/11/25HSpring Hill99-50

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL54%
HomeWWLWL78%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1394
Win %54%78%0%
Points / game74.280.260.8
Allowed / game68.665.276.2
Point differential+5.6+15.0-15.5
Avg total142.8145.4137.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%56%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %8%11%0%
South Alabama
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW58%
HomeWWLLL50%
AwayWLWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %58%50%67%
Points / game74.872.577.0
Allowed / game70.965.276.7
Point differential+3.8+7.3+0.3
Avg total145.7137.7153.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%17%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)33% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %8%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State128467%81.178.6+2.5
2 Georgia Southern149564%83.177.9+5.3
3 Troy138562%87.578.7+8.8
4 Southern Miss127558%75.770.8+4.8
5 South Alabama127558%74.870.9+3.8
6 Marshall127558%78.176.8+1.3
7 James Madison127558%74.574.4+0.1
8 Appalachian State148657%73.465.9+7.5
9 Texas State137654%74.268.6+5.6
10 Coastal Carolina137654%73.271.4+1.8
11 Old Dominion134931%74.277.2-2.9
12 Louisiana Monroe1331023%73.282.1-8.9
13 Georgia State1331023%65.876.5-10.8
14 Louisiana Lafayette1321115%57.569.7-12.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas State254267
South Alabama392665
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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