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Tarleton vs California Baptist Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 81-76 (OT)
29-28 35-36 17-12
Position#255
Record10-5
FormWWWWL
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game71.7
vs
Position#41
Record10-5
FormWWWLL
Points / game73.1
Allowed / game70.3
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Tarleton v California Baptist
03 Jan 2026
TARL81
CALI76
16 Jan 2025
TARL67
CALI57
24 Feb 2024
TARL82
CALI65
20 Jan 2022
TARL84
CALI88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tarleton winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
California Baptist winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TarletonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Angelo State
#430
W
77-54
77
54
+23
H18/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
90-74
90
74
+16
A21/11
NCAA
State Mustangs
#390
W
67-57
67
57
+10
H28/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
58-76
58
76
-18
A02/12
NCAA
Howard Payne
#667
W
119-54
119
54
+65
H04/12
NCAA
Cameron
#466
W
93-63
93
63
+30
H07/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
88-64
88
64
+24
A17/12
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
78-54
78
54
+24
H20/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
69-63
69
63
+6
A30/12
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
85-91
85
91
-6
H02/01
NCAA
1H
2H
44-25
33-29
37-38
53-36
25-36
42-21
29-31
29-45
59-29
60-25
53-23
40-40
43-40
45-24
49-35
29-19
35-30
34-33
40-43
45-48
147.4Avg total
82.4Scored
65.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)80.171.7151.8+8.567%
Season at home (8)85.064.0149.0+21.088%
Season away (7)74.680.4155.0-5.943%
Last 10 (10)82.465.0147.4+17.480%
Last 5 (5)82.667.0149.6+15.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)63.373.9137.2-10.619%
vs Similar ◀ (8)71.267.8139.0+3.575%
vs Weaker (3)95.057.3152.3+37.7100%
This opponent (California Baptist) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
California BaptistUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
76-61
76
61
+15
H25/11
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
W
75-69
75
69
+6
A30/11
NCAA
Colorado
#183
L
70-78
70
78
-8
A02/12
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
L
60-91
60
91
-31
A04/12
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
L
85-91
85
91
-6
A07/12
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
W
88-83
88
83
+5
A13/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
75-67
75
67
+8
H17/12
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
74-67
74
67
+7
H21/12
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
66-73
66
73
-7
A30/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A01/01
NCAA
1H
2H
40-39
36-22
30-30
45-39
34-32
36-46
26-42
34-49
38-41
47-50
47-41
41-42
34-32
41-35
38-34
36-33
39-33
27-40
26-28
25-35
146.3Avg total
72.0Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)73.170.3143.4+2.967%
Season at home (7)76.163.6139.7+12.6100%
Season away (8)70.576.1146.6-5.638%
Last 10 (10)72.074.3146.3-2.350%
Last 5 (5)70.870.6141.4+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)70.071.8141.8-1.820%
vs Similar ◀ (9)66.168.7134.8-2.656%
vs Weaker (16)73.766.1139.8+7.681%
This opponent (Tarleton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +8.4+8.41st half: +0.0+0.02nd half2nd half: +9.0+9.02nd half: -2.3-2.3
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +8.4+8.41st half: +0.0+0.02nd half2nd half: +9.0+9.02nd half: -2.3-2.3
TarletonCalifornia Baptist
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TarletonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Angelo State
#430
W
44-25
44
25
+19
H18/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A21/11
NCAA
State Mustangs
#390
L
25-36
25
36
-11
H28/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
29-31
29
31
-2
A02/12
NCAA
Howard Payne
#667
W
59-29
59
29
+30
H04/12
NCAA
Cameron
#466
W
53-23
53
23
+30
H07/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A17/12
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
49-35
49
35
+14
H20/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A30/12
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H02/01
NCAA
74.4Avg total
41.4Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.333.668.9+1.650%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.529.568.1+9.073%-
Last 30 away (15)32.037.769.7-5.727%-
Last 10 (10)41.433.074.4+8.460%-
Last 5 (5)44.034.278.2+9.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)32.236.368.5-4.125%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)33.830.063.8+3.875%-
vs Weaker (3)50.334.785.0+15.7100%-
This opponent (California Baptist) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
California BaptistLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H25/11
NCAA
Oregon State
#195
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A30/11
NCAA
Colorado
#183
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A02/12
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A04/12
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A07/12
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A13/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H17/12
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H21/12
NCAA
Utah Valley State
#33
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A30/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
L
26-28
26
28
-2
A01/01
NCAA
70.4Avg total
35.2Scored
35.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.131.066.1+4.167%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.330.168.4+8.393%-
Last 30 away (15)31.932.063.9-0.140%-
Last 10 (10)35.235.270.4+0.060%-
Last 5 (5)36.833.670.4+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)33.833.066.8+0.860%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)31.730.462.1+1.256%-
vs Weaker (16)37.430.868.2+6.775%-
This opponent (Tarleton) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Tarleton wins
7
California Baptist wins
Tarletonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/01/26HUtah Valley State85-91
30/12/25AUT Arlington69-63
20/12/25HFlorida A&M78-54
17/12/25AMiss. Valley St.88-64
07/12/25HCameron93-63
04/12/25HHoward Payne119-54
02/12/25ACincinnati58-76
28/11/25HState Mustangs67-57
21/11/25ARice90-74
18/11/25HAngelo State77-54
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/01/26AUT Arlington51-63
30/12/25AUtah Valley State66-73
21/12/25HSacramento State74-67
17/12/25HSouthern Univ.75-67
13/12/25AEast. Washington88-83
07/12/25AUtah Utes85-91
04/12/25ABrigham Young60-91
02/12/25AColorado70-78
30/11/25AOregon State75-69
25/11/25HSan Diego Toreros76-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tarleton
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL67%
HomeWWWWL88%
AwayLWLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %67%88%43%
Points / game80.185.074.6
Allowed / game71.764.080.4
Point differential+8.5+21.0-5.9
Avg total151.8149.0155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%75%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
California Baptist
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL67%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLWLL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %67%100%38%
Points / game73.176.170.5
Allowed / game70.363.676.1
Point differential+2.9+12.6-5.6
Avg total143.4139.7146.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%71%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Western Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Valley State1612475%82.666.8+15.8
2 Tarleton1510567%80.171.7+8.5
3 California Baptist1510567%73.170.3+2.9
4 UT Arlington149564%71.363.6+7.6
5 Abilene Christian159660%72.770.2+2.5
6 Utah Tech169756%78.672.8+5.8
7 Southern Utah1441029%76.980.9-4.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Tarleton29351781
California Baptist28361276
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