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Tofas vs Mersin SK Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 10:00
Final 83-88
20-32 24-21 20-14 19-21
Position#9
Record8-10
FormLLWLL
Points / game82.8
Allowed / game82.5
vs
Position#13
Record6-12
FormLLWLW
Points / game82.6
Allowed / game85.9
TurkeyBasketbol Süper LigiRound 19· Tofas Spor Salonu
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Tofas v Mersin SK
07 Feb 2026
TOF83
MES88
27 Apr 2025
TOF87
MES65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tofas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mersin SK winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TofasTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTofas
Date
Competition
Cholet
#23
W
89-75
89
75
+14
86avg 83
H06/01
Champions League
Cholet
#23
L
86-105
86
105
-19
75avg 83
A09/01
Champions League
Petkim Spor
#14
W
82-76
82
76
+6
84avg 83
A11/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cholet
#23
W
84-82
84
82
+2
no box
H14/01
Champions League
Fenerbahce
#1
L
82-90
82
90
-8
no box
A18/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Alba Berlin
#11
L
90-94
90
94
-4
85avg 83
H20/01
Champions League
Galatasaray
#7
L
78-91
78
91
-13
68avg 83
H24/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AS Karditsas
#32
W
93-79
93
79
+14
91avg 83
A27/01
Champions League
Turk Telekom
#5
L
78-95
78
95
-17
75avg 83
A31/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AEK Athens
#1
L
90-93 OT
90
93
-3
85avg 83
H03/02
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-18
18-22
18-12
27-23
16-25
20-28
24-24
26-28
17-23
23-16
25-14
17-23
23-15
19-18
20-19
22-30
23-19
15-26
21-23
23-22
20-12
23-22
25-26
22-34
16-31
14-20
27-23
21-17
19-22
30-24
26-16
18-17
23-26
27-16
15-27
13-26
20-27
24-15
14-12
19-23
173.2Avg total
85.2Scored
88.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)82.882.5165.3+0.344%
Season at home (8)84.575.6160.1+8.988%
Season away (10)81.588.0169.5-6.510%
Last 10 (10)85.288.0173.2-2.840%
Last 5 (5)85.890.4176.2-4.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)82.084.3166.3-2.343%
vs Similar ◀ (11)83.585.6169.2-2.136%
vs Weaker (5)90.280.4170.6+9.880%
This opponent (Mersin SK) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mersin SKTurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSK
Date
Competition
Oostende
#46
W
84-76
84
76
+8
84avg 76
H17/12
Champions League
Bursaspor
#12
L
88-99
88
99
-11
84avg 76
A21/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Merkezefendi
#10
W
110-92
110
92
+18
110avg 76
H27/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#4
L
80-93
80
93
-13
79avg 76
A04/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Le Mans
#14
L
65-92
65
92
-27
60avg 76
H06/01
Champions League
Le Mans
#14
L
83-113
83
113
-30
74avg 76
A08/01
Champions League
Trabzonspor
#6
L
79-82
79
82
-3
74avg 76
H11/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Manisa
#11
W
81-77
81
77
+4
no box
H18/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
L
59-84
59
84
-25
46avg 76
A24/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#3
W
87-80 OT
87
80
+7
87avg 76
H31/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-16
26-17
23-15
17-28
22-20
23-24
20-23
23-32
33-23
33-18
18-22
26-29
16-23
27-29
24-20
13-21
17-15
17-24
12-29
19-24
16-31
15-19
27-31
25-32
25-30
21-21
16-17
17-14
19-25
24-23
19-13
19-16
16-22
12-19
13-19
18-24
16-24
24-12
25-16
10-23
170.4Avg total
81.6Scored
88.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)82.685.9168.6-3.333%
Season at home (10)86.286.8173.0-0.650%
Season away (8)78.184.9163.0-6.812%
Last 10 (10)81.688.8170.4-7.240%
Last 5 (5)77.887.2165.0-9.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)75.688.4164.0-12.812%
vs Similar ◀ (12)90.282.4172.6+7.883%
vs Weaker (1)77.088.0165.0-11.00%
This opponent (Tofas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: -5.6-5.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -3.5-3.5Q4: -5.6-5.6
TofasMersin SK
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TofasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cholet
#23
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H06/01
Champions League
Cholet
#23
L
36-53
36
53
-17
A09/01
Champions League
Petkim Spor
#14
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A11/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Cholet
#23
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H14/01
Champions League
Fenerbahce
#1
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A18/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Alba Berlin
#11
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H20/01
Champions League
Galatasaray
#7
L
30-51
30
51
-21
H24/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AS Karditsas
#32
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A27/01
Champions League
Turk Telekom
#5
W
50-42
50
42
+8
A31/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
AEK Athens
#1
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H03/02
Champions League
84.1Avg total
41.6Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.341.382.6+0.047%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.240.181.3+1.153%-
Last 30 away (15)41.442.583.9-1.140%-
Last 10 (10)41.642.584.1-0.970%-
Last 5 (5)43.243.086.2+0.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)41.140.281.3+0.957%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)39.642.882.5-3.29%-
vs Weaker (5)45.641.086.6+4.6100%-
This opponent (Mersin SK) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mersin SKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oostende
#46
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H17/12
Champions League
Bursaspor
#12
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A21/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Merkezefendi
#10
W
66-41
66
41
+25
H27/12
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Anadolu Efes
#4
L
43-52
43
52
-9
A04/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Le Mans
#14
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H06/01
Champions League
Le Mans
#14
L
31-50
31
50
-19
A08/01
Champions League
Trabzonspor
#6
L
46-51
46
51
-5
H11/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Manisa
#11
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H18/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Besiktas
#2
L
28-41
28
41
-13
A24/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Bahcesehir Kol.
#3
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H31/01
Basketbol Süper Ligi
85.5Avg total
42.0Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.643.784.2-3.140%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.944.987.8-2.144%-
Last 30 away (14)37.942.280.1-4.336%-
Last 10 (10)42.043.585.5-1.540%-
Last 5 (5)37.645.282.8-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.846.282.9-9.418%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)45.939.985.8+6.075%-
vs Weaker (1)41.046.087.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Tofas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tofastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tofas: 87.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.7 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.820.1
54.6%
54.0%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.59.9
38.8%
35.6%29.7
🏀 Free throws22.817.5
76.8%
76.0%17.5
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Mersin SKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mersin SK: 81.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.7 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.517.0
49.3%
54.0%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.010.6
35.3%
35.6%31.8
🏀 Free throws21.315.6
73.2%
76.0%15.6
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tofas
LLWLLLWWLW
Mersin SK
WLWLLLLWLW
#9
League position
#13
-2.3
Net rating
-9.8
103.8
Offensive rating
103.2
106.1
Defensive rating
113.0
56.1%
Effective FG%
51.0%
54.1%
Opp. effective FG%
57.6%
16.1%
Turnover %
16.5%
26.5%
Off. rebound %
35.7%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.33
38.8%
3-point %
35.3%
64.7%
Assist %
79.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence103.8 · 103.2Defence106.1 · 113.0Shooting56.1% · 51.0%3-point %38.8% · 35.3%Ball care16.1% · 16.5%Off. rebounds26.5% · 35.7%Free throws0.37 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Tofas   ■ Mersin SK
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Tofas wins
3
Mersin SK wins
DateGameScore
19/10/25Mersin SK v Tofas84-80
27/04/25Tofas v Mersin SK87-65
12/02/25Mersin SK v Tofas101-95
28/12/24Mersin SK v Tofas79-58
Tofaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/26HAEK Athens90-93 OT
31/01/26ATurk Telekom78-95
27/01/26AAS Karditsas93-79
24/01/26HGalatasaray78-91
20/01/26HAlba Berlin90-94
18/01/26AFenerbahce82-90
14/01/26HCholet84-82
11/01/26APetkim Spor82-76
09/01/26ACholet86-105
06/01/26HCholet89-75
Mersin SKlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26HBahcesehir Kol.87-80 OT
24/01/26ABesiktas59-84
18/01/26HManisa81-77
11/01/26HTrabzonspor79-82
08/01/26ALe Mans83-113
06/01/26HLe Mans65-92
04/01/26AAnadolu Efes80-93
27/12/25HMerkezefendi110-92
21/12/25ABursaspor88-99
17/12/25HOostende84-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tofas
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL44%
HomeWWWWL88%
AwayLLWLL10%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %44%88%10%
Points / game82.884.581.5
Allowed / game82.575.688.0
Point differential+0.3+8.9-6.5
Avg total165.3160.1169.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%62%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)100% (1)0% (4)
Overtime %6%0%10%
Mersin SK
Basketbol Süper Ligi 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW33%
HomeLWLWW50%
AwayLLLLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18108
Win %33%50%12%
Points / game82.686.278.1
Allowed / game85.986.884.9
Point differential-3.3-0.6-6.8
Avg total168.6173.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%10%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)60% (5)0% (2)
Overtime %6%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Fenerbahce1816289%89.478.5+10.9
2 Besiktas1815383%85.276.8+8.4
3 Trabzonspor1813572%86.981.2+5.7
4 Turk Telekom1812667%86.279.2+7.1
5 Bahcesehir Kol.1812667%81.879.4+2.3
6 Esenler Erokspor1811761%83.278.8+4.4
7 Galatasaray1811761%86.782.7+4.0
8 Anadolu Efes1810856%86.981.7+5.2
9 Tofas1881044%82.882.5+0.3
10 Merkezefendi1881044%81.886.1-4.3
11 Mersin SK1861233%82.685.9-3.3
12 Bursaspor1861233%80.887.3-6.5
13 Manisa1851328%77.584.1-6.6
14 Petkim Spor1851328%78.987.6-8.6
15 Karsiyaka1841422%79.589.2-9.7
16 Buyukcekmece1821611%79.388.8-9.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tofas2024201983
Mersin SK3221142188
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