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Toledo vs Buffalo Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 05 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 87-74
42-32 45-42
Position#167
Record13-8
FormWLWWW
Points / game78.8
Allowed / game78.1
Toledo 🏆
USA
vs
Position#333
Record7-14
FormWLLWL
Points / game72.4
Allowed / game81.7
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Toledo v Buffalo
08 Jan 2027
TOLE v BUFF
upcoming
06 Mar 2026
TOLE98
BUFF78
04 Feb 2025
TOLE87
BUFF74
16 Jan 2024
TOLE77
BUFF66
25 Feb 2023
TOLE101
BUFF71
25 Jan 2022
TOLE86
BUFF75
14 Feb 2020
TOLE67
BUFF83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Toledo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Buffalo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ToledoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#72
L
64-83
64
83
-19
A29/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
W
76-70
76
70
+6
A04/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
W
90-87
90
87
+3
H08/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
69-67
69
67
+2
H11/01
NCAA
Akron
#21
L
78-85
78
85
-7
A15/01
NCAA
Ball State
#243
W
93-75
93
75
+18
A18/01
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
64-83
64
83
-19
H22/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
W
84-71
84
71
+13
A24/01
NCAA
Ohio
#205
W
86-83
86
83
+3
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
89-85
89
85
+4
H01/02
NCAA
1H
2H
28-39
36-44
35-33
41-37
46-33
44-54
34-30
35-37
42-30
36-55
44-40
49-35
30-44
34-39
43-38
41-33
47-39
39-44
50-35
39-50
158.2Avg total
79.3Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)78.878.1156.9+0.762%
Season at home (10)79.177.1156.2+2.070%
Season away (11)78.579.0157.5-0.555%
Last 10 (10)79.378.9158.2+0.470%
Last 5 (5)83.279.4162.6+3.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.383.8158.1-9.433%
vs Similar (12)79.074.1153.1+4.975%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)90.372.2162.5+18.283%
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Temple
#180
L
71-91
71
91
-20
A29/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
79-93
79
93
-14
A04/01
NCAA
Ohio
#205
L
79-88
79
88
-9
H08/01
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
49-68
49
68
-19
H10/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
L
61-79
61
79
-18
A15/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
W
85-76
85
76
+9
A18/01
NCAA
Akron
#21
L
58-90
58
90
-32
H22/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
L
77-90
77
90
-13
A25/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
75-69
75
69
+6
H29/01
NCAA
Ball State
#243
L
76-89
76
89
-13
H01/02
NCAA
1H
2H
29-39
42-52
39-46
40-47
20-37
59-51
20-24
29-44
28-32
33-47
53-39
32-37
25-40
33-50
45-42
32-48
30-34
45-35
32-45
44-44
154.3Avg total
71.0Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)72.481.7154.0-9.333%
Season at home (10)75.278.8154.0-3.650%
Season away (11)69.884.3154.1-14.518%
Last 10 (10)71.083.3154.3-12.320%
Last 5 (5)74.282.8157.0-8.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)70.081.3151.3-11.322%
vs Similar (1)82.081.0163.0+1.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -5.7-5.72nd half2nd half: -3.4-3.42nd half: -6.6-6.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.8+3.81st half: -5.7-5.72nd half2nd half: -3.4-3.42nd half: -6.6-6.6
ToledoBuffalo
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ToledoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Purdue
#72
L
28-39
28
39
-11
A29/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A04/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H08/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H11/01
NCAA
Akron
#21
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A15/01
NCAA
Ball State
#243
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A18/01
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H22/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Ohio
#205
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A29/01
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H01/02
NCAA
76.0Avg total
39.9Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.235.173.3+3.163%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.132.769.8+4.560%-
Last 30 away (15)39.237.576.7+1.767%-
Last 10 (10)39.936.176.0+3.880%-
Last 5 (5)42.839.282.0+3.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)35.339.274.5-3.842%-
vs Similar (12)37.932.870.8+5.167%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)44.331.575.8+12.8100%-
This opponent (Buffalo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BuffaloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Temple
#180
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A29/12
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#41
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A04/01
NCAA
Ohio
#205
L
20-37
20
37
-17
H08/01
NCAA
Kent State
#74
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Bowling Green
#257
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A15/01
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A18/01
NCAA
Akron
#21
L
25-40
25
40
-15
H22/01
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#212
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A25/01
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H29/01
NCAA
Ball State
#243
L
32-45
32
45
-13
H01/02
NCAA
69.9Avg total
32.1Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.238.071.2-4.830%-
Last 30 at home (15)31.836.868.6-5.020%-
Last 30 away (15)34.639.273.8-4.640%-
Last 10 (10)32.137.869.9-5.720%-
Last 5 (5)37.040.077.0-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)32.238.070.2-5.830%-
vs Similar (1)43.043.086.0+0.00%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Toledo) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Toledo wins
1
Buffalo wins
DateGameScore
02/03/24Buffalo v Toledo79-85
17/01/24Toledo v Buffalo77-66
25/02/23Toledo v Buffalo101-71
21/01/23Buffalo v Toledo77-86
02/03/22Buffalo v Toledo76-92
26/01/22Toledo v Buffalo86-75
20/02/21Buffalo v Toledo70-80
14/02/20Toledo v Buffalo67-83
Toledolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/02/25HNorthern Illinois89-85
29/01/25AOhio86-83
24/01/25ABowling Green84-71
22/01/25HKent State64-83
18/01/25ABall State93-75
15/01/25AAkron78-85
11/01/25HCentral Michigan69-67
08/01/25HEastern Michigan90-87
04/01/25AWestern Michigan76-70
29/12/24APurdue64-83
Buffalolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/02/25HBall State76-89
29/01/25HCentral Michigan75-69
25/01/25AEastern Michigan77-90
22/01/25HAkron58-90
18/01/25AWestern Michigan85-76
15/01/25ABowling Green61-79
10/01/25HKent State49-68
08/01/25HOhio79-88
04/01/25AMiami (Ohio)79-93
29/12/24ATemple71-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Toledo
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW62%
HomeWWWLW70%
AwayWLWWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %62%70%55%
Points / game78.879.178.5
Allowed / game78.177.179.0
Point differential+0.7+2.0-0.5
Avg total156.9156.2157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%20%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (5)100% (4)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Buffalo
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL33%
HomeLLLWL50%
AwayLLLWL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %33%50%18%
Points / game72.475.269.8
Allowed / game81.778.884.3
Point differential-9.3-3.6-14.5
Avg total154.0154.0154.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%10%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mid-American conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Akron2116576%84.072.9+11.1
2 Miami (Ohio)2116576%82.373.0+9.3
3 Kent State2214864%70.064.4+5.6
4 Toledo2113862%78.878.1+0.7
5 Ohio21111052%79.975.5+4.4
6 Central Michigan21101148%74.170.0+4.1
7 Ball State21101148%76.173.7+2.4
8 UMass22101245%75.975.2+0.7
9 Eastern Michigan22101245%72.277.5-5.3
10 Bowling Green2171433%75.176.3-1.2
11 Western Michigan2171433%71.175.0-3.9
12 Buffalo2171433%72.481.7-9.3
13 Northern Illinois2151624%71.476.5-5.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Toledo424587
Buffalo324274
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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