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Tortona vs AEK Athens Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 19 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 83-82
27-21 18-16 23-24 15-21
Position#5
Record9-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game74.2
Tortona 🏆
vs
Position#4
Record8-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game84.5
Allowed / game77.3
EuropeChampions League· PalaFerraris
European cup2024
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tortona winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
AEK Athens winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TortonaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTortona
Date
Competition
Wurzburg
#19
L
79-80
79
80
-1
75avg 76
A28/01
Champions League
Trieste
#6
L
72-86
72
86
-14
60avg 76
A01/02
Lega A
AEK Athens
#4
L
86-93
86
93
-7
81avg 76
A04/02
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
66-98
66
98
-32
51avg 76
H09/02
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
79-86
79
86
-7
72avg 76
A12/02
Italian Cup
Trento
#4
W
89-85
89
85
+4
82avg 76
A01/03
Lega A
Promitheas
#31
W
97-77
97
77
+20
97avg 76
H04/03
Champions League
Varese
#12
W
89-82 OT
89
82
+7
85avg 76
H09/03
Lega A
Promitheas
#31
W
82-60
82
60
+22
80avg 76
A12/03
Champions League
Scafati
#15
W
102-79
102
79
+23
105avg 76
A16/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-18
20-21
20-14
23-27
23-26
12-18
17-17
20-25
20-27
24-15
19-23
23-28
19-20
19-34
14-20
14-24
21-24
12-18
27-20
19-24
18-24
20-16
25-26
26-19
30-26
21-13
29-16
17-22
18-14
23-19
13-20
21-22
20-19
12-10
32-16
18-15
23-15
22-21
33-13
24-30
166.7Avg total
84.1Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)81.974.2156.1+7.875%
Season at home (5)86.474.6161.0+11.8100%
Season away (7)78.773.9152.6+4.957%
Last 10 (10)84.182.6166.7+1.550%
Last 5 (5)91.876.6168.4+15.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)86.687.5174.1-0.962%
vs Similar ◀ (8)79.984.9164.8-5.025%
vs Weaker (13)84.074.4158.4+9.685%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAthens
Date
Competition
Promitheas
#31
W
97-76
97
76
+21
100avg 79
H29/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
86-85
86
85
+1
80avg 79
A01/02
Basket League
Tortona
#5
W
93-86
93
86
+7
92avg 79
H04/02
Champions League
Promitheas
#5
W
91-71
91
71
+20
93avg 79
H08/02
Basket League
PAOK
#12
L
65-84
65
84
-19
57avg 79
A13/02
Greek Cup
Panionios
#8
W
80-75
80
75
+5
83avg 79
A01/03
Basket League
Wurzburg
#19
W
77-71
77
71
+6
72avg 79
A04/03
Champions League
Peristeri
#9
W
96-67
96
67
+29
94avg 79
H08/03
Basket League
Wurzburg
#19
W
84-77
84
77
+7
86avg 79
H11/03
Champions League
Lavrio
#12
W
90-79
90
79
+11
90avg 79
A15/03
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-25
24-19
25-12
25-20
18-22
24-14
20-28
24-21
27-20
15-24
23-19
28-23
17-23
25-12
24-17
25-19
18-23
14-18
19-20
14-23
28-16
23-13
14-20
15-26
32-22
18-19
14-14
13-16
23-16
23-17
28-15
22-19
19-34
20-14
20-17
25-12
26-21
24-14
15-9
25-35
163.0Avg total
85.9Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)84.577.3161.8+7.280%
Season at home (6)88.374.2162.5+14.2100%
Season away (4)78.882.0160.8-3.250%
Last 10 (10)85.977.1163.0+8.890%
Last 5 (5)85.473.8159.2+11.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)75.295.5170.8-20.20%
vs Similar ◀ (3)88.382.0170.3+6.3100%
vs Weaker (22)86.277.9164.0+8.373%
This opponent (Tortona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +0.2+0.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +0.2+0.2
TortonaAEK Athens
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TortonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wurzburg
#19
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A28/01
Champions League
Trieste
#6
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A01/02
Lega A
AEK Athens
#4
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A04/02
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
38-54
38
54
-16
H09/02
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A12/02
Italian Cup
Trento
#4
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A01/03
Lega A
Promitheas
#31
W
51-39
51
39
+12
H04/03
Champions League
Varese
#12
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H09/03
Lega A
Promitheas
#31
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A12/03
Champions League
Scafati
#15
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A16/03
Lega A
79.1Avg total
39.3Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.441.081.4-0.640%-
Last 30 at home (12)40.342.883.1-2.433%-
Last 30 away (18)40.439.880.3+0.644%-
Last 10 (10)39.339.879.1-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)41.435.476.8+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)43.645.188.8-1.525%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)38.543.882.2-5.225%-
vs Weaker (13)40.236.776.8+3.562%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Promitheas
#31
W
47-44
47
44
+3
H29/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#10
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A01/02
Basket League
Tortona
#5
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H04/02
Champions League
Promitheas
#5
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H08/02
Basket League
PAOK
#12
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A13/02
Greek Cup
Panionios
#8
W
51-29
51
29
+22
A01/03
Basket League
Wurzburg
#19
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A04/03
Champions League
Peristeri
#9
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H08/03
Basket League
Wurzburg
#19
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H11/03
Champions League
Lavrio
#12
W
50-35
50
35
+15
A15/03
Basket League
82.7Avg total
44.1Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.439.582.9+3.860%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.538.683.1+5.960%-
Last 30 away (15)42.240.582.7+1.760%-
Last 10 (10)44.138.682.7+5.570%-
Last 5 (5)47.237.284.4+10.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.547.085.5-8.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)43.739.383.0+4.367%-
vs Weaker (22)44.738.182.9+6.673%-
This opponent (Tortona) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tortonatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tortona: 82.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.617.0
52.1%
52.1%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.011.5
34.8%
35.0%34.5
🏀 Free throws17.114.4
84.2%
74.0%14.4
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 85.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.2 points a game
48%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.422.7
54.8%
52.1%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.87.0
35.4%
35.0%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.918.7
75.1%
74.0%18.7
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tortona
WWWWWLLLLL
AEK Athens
WWWWWLWWWW
#5
League position
#4
+1.2
Net rating
+11.9
113.8
Offensive rating
115.0
112.5
Defensive rating
103.2
52.2%
Effective FG%
54.2%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
17.9%
Turnover %
17.0%
36.5%
Off. rebound %
31.8%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.41
34.8%
3-point %
35.4%
64.6%
Assist %
70.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence113.8 · 115.0Defence112.5 · 103.2Shooting52.2% · 54.2%3-point %34.8% · 35.4%Ball care17.9% · 17.0%Off. rebounds36.5% · 31.8%Free throws0.26 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)50% · 90%
■ Tortona   ■ AEK Athens
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Tortona wins
1
AEK Athens wins
DateGameScore
04/02/25AEK Athens v Tortona93-86
Tortonalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/03/25AScafati102-79
12/03/25APromitheas82-60
09/03/25HVarese89-82 OT
04/03/25HPromitheas97-77
01/03/25ATrento89-85
12/02/25ABrescia79-86
09/02/25HVirtus Bologna66-98
04/02/25AAEK Athens86-93
01/02/25ATrieste72-86
28/01/25AWurzburg79-80
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/25ALavrio90-79
11/03/25HWurzburg84-77
08/03/25HPeristeri96-67
04/03/25AWurzburg77-71
01/03/25APanionios80-75
13/02/25APAOK65-84
08/02/25HPromitheas91-71
04/02/25HTortona93-86
01/02/25AKolossos Rhodes86-85
29/01/25HPromitheas97-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tortona
Champions League 2024
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW75%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWLLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %75%100%57%
Points / game81.986.478.7
Allowed / game74.274.673.9
Point differential+7.8+11.8+4.9
Avg total156.1161.0152.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%60%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
AEK Athens
Champions League 2024
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW80%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %80%100%50%
Points / game84.588.378.8
Allowed / game77.374.282.0
Point differential+7.2+14.2-3.2
Avg total161.8162.5160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tenerife11110100%85.170.5+14.6
2 Unicaja1110191%95.577.5+18.0
3 Nymburk1311285%88.775.9+12.8
4 AEK Athens108280%84.577.3+7.2
5 Tortona129375%81.974.2+7.8
6 Murcia118373%84.877.5+7.3
7 Galatasaray149564%82.780.7+2.0
8 Manresa117464%89.481.8+7.5
9 Rytas117464%86.981.6+5.3
10 Bonn106460%81.281.4-0.2
11 Petkim Spor1710759%81.581.9-0.5
12 Nanterre148657%81.481.5-0.1
13 Wurzburg116555%85.084.1+0.9
14 Reggiana137654%79.580.8-1.3
15 Manisa137654%87.588.9-1.5
16 CSM Oradea21150%85.070.0+15.0
17 Levice21150%93.585.5+8.0
18 MoraBanc Andorra21150%91.086.0+5.0
19 Karsiyaka84450%80.877.0+3.8
20 Rilski Sportist21150%79.576.5+3.0
21 Norrkoping21150%77.075.5+1.5
22 Juventus21150%80.080.5-0.5
23 Sassari21150%74.075.5-1.5
24 Trepca21150%80.081.5-1.5
25 Fribourg Olympic21150%82.585.0-2.5
26 BC Kalev/Cramo21150%75.078.0-3.0
27 PAOK21150%75.079.5-4.5
28 Maccabi Ironi Ramat Gan94544%83.284.1-0.9
29 Hapoel Holon94544%78.179.4-1.3
30 Promitheas135838%80.986.0-5.1
31 Benfica83538%75.984.5-8.6
32 Szombathely145936%79.586.8-7.3
33 Oostende93633%77.178.9-1.8
34 Igokea62433%82.286.5-4.3
35 Saint Quentin93633%72.879.0-6.2
36 Peristeri82625%71.674.9-3.2
37 VEF Riga61517%77.380.3-3.0
38 Slask Wroclaw61517%74.582.3-7.8
39 FMP Beograd61517%74.283.8-9.7
40 Vechta61517%78.588.5-10.0
41 Chemnitz81712%77.585.8-8.2
42 Keravnos1010%79.082.0-3.0
43 Spartak Subotica1010%84.087.0-3.0
44 Sabah Baku1010%71.075.0-4.0
45 Cholet1010%70.076.0-6.0
46 BC Nokia1010%64.071.0-7.0
47 Antwerp Giants1010%73.091.0-18.0
48 Kolossos Rhodes6060%64.583.2-18.7
49 Szczecin6060%64.783.3-18.7
50 Den Bosch1010%72.092.0-20.0
51 Kutaisi1010%87.0111.0-24.0
52 Caledonia Gladiators1010%59.090.0-31.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 52 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Tortona2718231583
AEK Athens2116242182
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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