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Valencia vs Virtus Bologna Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Projected 97-84
Projected total 181.4
Scheduled
Position#3
Record8-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game96.4
Allowed / game88.9
Valencia
Vs
89%
■ VAL 89%■ VIR 11%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Virtus Bologna
Position#16
Record4-7
FormLLLWL
Points / game86.1
Allowed / game90.7
EuropeEuroleagueRound 13· Roig Arena
European cup2026
Meetings · Valencia v Virtus Bologna
19 Nov 2026
VAL v VIR
upcoming
03 Oct 2025
VAL103
VIR94
21 Dec 2023
VAL79
VIR71
06 Apr 2023
VAL79
VIR68
04 May 2022
VAL73
VIR83
09 Feb 2022
VAL83
VIR77
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Valencia faces Virtus Bologna in the EuroLeague on 19 November 2026, with the model designating Valencia as the clear favourite thanks to an 8-3 record, 96.4 points per game and a league position of 3, while Virtus Bologna sits 16th with a 4-7 record and 86.1 points per game. Valencia has won 4 of its 6 home games, scoring 96.2 and allowing 88.0, and has secured 4 of its last 5, including a 102-87 win over Bayern at home on 12 November; Virtus Bologna has won only 2 of 6 road games, scoring 85.8 and allowing 89.8, and has managed just 1 win in its last 5, a 95-81 victory over Verona at home on 9 November. Their head-to-head record stands at 6-3 in favour of Valencia, with the most recent encounter ending 94-81 for Valencia on 3 April 2026. Pythia projects a 97-84 score, a total of 181.4, and gives Valencia an 89% chance to win and an 11% chance for Virtus Bologna; the home line is -8.5 with a 68% probability of covering, and the total line is 184.5 with a 42% probability of the over.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valencia win
88.5%fair 1.13
Best odds1.27
Implied75.3%
Edge+13.2pp
Virtus Bologna win
11.5%fair 8.70
Best odds3.96
Implied24.7%
Edge-13.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 10 Nov 07:33 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValenciaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
88-91
88
91
-3
79avg 93
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
116-93
116
93
+23
113avg 93
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
W
104-93
104
93
+11
98avg 93
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
W
84-75
84
75
+9
69avg 93
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
86-78
86
78
+8
73avg 93
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
L
94-98
94
98
-4
86avg 93
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
111-79
111
79
+32
107avg 93
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
84-73
84
73
+11
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
100-93
100
93
+7
no box
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
102-87
102
87
+15
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-31
25-19
24-21
16-20
25-14
33-22
28-24
30-33
32-26
25-28
26-16
21-23
27-19
14-16
18-18
25-22
19-9
17-16
24-21
26-32
25-30
17-14
26-25
26-29
20-21
26-18
31-29
34-11
24-15
16-22
11-22
33-14
22-27
19-25
30-20
29-21
29-19
23-22
21-24
29-22
182.9Avg total
96.9Scored
86.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)96.488.9185.3+7.573%
Season at home (6)96.288.0184.2+8.267%
Season away (5)96.690.0186.6+6.680%
Last 10 (10)96.986.0182.9+10.980%
Last 5 (5)98.286.0184.2+12.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)89.085.0174.0+4.067%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)98.887.2186.0+11.681%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#20
W
86-78
86
78
+8
81avg 81
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
108-83
108
83
+25
113avg 81
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
L
81-90
81
90
-9
65avg 81
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#3
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
90avg 81
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
74-91
74
91
-17
62avg 81
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
L
101-103
101
103
-2
97avg 81
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#7
L
93-100
93
100
-7
no box
H02/11
Lega A
Dubai
#9
L
75-93
75
93
-18
no box
H06/11
Euroleague
Verona
#10
W
95-81
95
81
+14
no box
H09/11
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
91-103
91
103
-12
no box
A13/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-12
22-22
22-19
18-25
32-17
18-19
23-20
35-27
25-23
23-13
14-28
19-26
20-22
17-30
22-15
22-14
22-14
13-23
18-28
21-26
24-24
30-23
20-23
27-33
24-25
31-21
17-31
21-23
17-21
17-27
19-28
22-17
21-22
21-14
26-27
27-18
20-28
23-32
25-16
23-27
181.8Avg total
90.2Scored
91.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)86.190.7176.8-4.636%
Season at home (5)86.491.8178.2-5.440%
Season away (6)85.889.8175.7-4.033%
Last 10 (10)90.291.6181.8-1.440%
Last 5 (5)91.096.0187.0-5.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)78.889.2168.0-10.420%
vs Similar (6)94.294.7188.8-0.550%
vs Weaker (19)92.584.7177.3+7.868%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%12%0%1351%1401%1452%1504%1556%1609%16510%17012%17512%18012%1859%1908%1955%2004%2052%2101%2151%2200%225
1%1402%1506%16010%17012%1809%1905%2002%2101%220
Pythia expects about 181 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 180-184 (12%). The market's main line is 184.5.
Over/Under 179.5
Over 179.5
54.1%
@ 1.46-8.1pp
Under 179.5
45.9%
@ 2.40+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Under
1xBet
2.40
Over/Under 184.5 · main line
Over 184.5
41.8%
@ 1.93-8.2pp
Under 184.5
58.2%
@ 1.93+8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 189.5
Over 189.5
30.3%
@ 2.40-7.5pp
Under 189.5
69.7%
@ 1.46+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.46

📊 3. Team Totals

Valencia total 92.5
Over 92.5
69.2%
Under 92.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia total 96.5 · main line
Over 96.5
54.0%
@ 1.81+4.0pp
Under 96.5
46.0%
@ 1.81-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.81
Valencia total 100.5
Over 100.5
38.1%
Under 100.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Bologna total 83.5
Over 83.5
50.8%
Under 83.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus Bologna total 87.5 · main line
Over 87.5
35.1%
@ 1.75-16.5pp
Under 87.5
64.9%
@ 1.86+16.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
1.86
Virtus Bologna total 91.5
Over 91.5
21.8%
Under 91.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%9%0%-211%-181%-152%-122%-94%-64%-34%+08%+38%+69%+99%+129%+159%+188%+216%+245%+274%+302%+332%+361%+391%+420%+45
1%-182%-124%-64%+08%+69%+129%+186%+244%+302%+361%+42
Margin from Valencia's side (positive = Valencia win). Pythia's expected margin is +13.6; Valencia win by 1+ in 81% of simulations.
Spread Valencia -11.5
VAL -11.5
57.4%
@ 2.21+16.4pp
VIR +11.5
42.6%
@ 1.54-16.4pp
Best 5 market prices
VAL
1xBet
2.21
VIR
1xBet
1.54
Spread Valencia -8.5 · main line
VAL -8.5
67.8%
@ 1.92+17.6pp
VIR +8.5
32.2%
@ 1.94-17.6pp
Best 5 market prices
VAL
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.83
VIR
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.85
Spread Valencia -5.5
VAL -5.5
77.2%
@ 1.54+18.2pp
VIR +5.5
22.8%
@ 2.21-18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
VAL
1xBet
1.54
VIR
1xBet
2.21

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -0.1-0.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -0.1-0.1
ValenciaVirtus Bologna
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
58-36
58
36
+22
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H12/11
Euroleague
87.4Avg total
46.1Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 91.5
Last 30 (30)47.141.188.2+6.077%43%
Last 30 at home (15)49.139.688.7+9.580%53%
Last 30 away (15)45.142.687.7+2.573%33%
Last 10 (10)46.141.387.4+4.870%50%
Last 5 (5)44.242.686.8+1.660%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)45.331.376.7+14.0100%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)47.342.289.5+5.174%44%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Baskonia
#20
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#8
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#13
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#7
W
55-46
55
46
+9
H02/11
Lega A
Dubai
#9
L
34-48
34
48
-14
H06/11
Euroleague
Verona
#10
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H09/11
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#12
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A13/11
Euroleague
87.6Avg total
44.4Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 91.5
Last 30 (30)45.843.088.8+2.860%33%
Last 30 at home (16)48.242.490.6+5.969%44%
Last 30 away (14)42.943.786.6-0.850%21%
Last 10 (10)44.443.287.6+1.260%30%
Last 5 (5)45.647.493.0-1.860%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)40.842.082.8-1.220%20%
vs Similar (6)45.547.893.3-2.350%50%
vs Weaker (19)47.241.788.9+5.474%32%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Valencia -4.5 · main line
VAL -4.5
60.3%
@ 1.85+10.3pp
VIR +4.5
39.7%
@ 1.85-10.3pp
1st half Over/Under 91.5 · main line
Over
48.8%
@ 1.80-2.5pp
Under
51.2%
@ 1.90+2.5pp
Valencia 1st half total 48.5 · main line
Over
52.9%
@ 1.81+3.4pp
Under
47.1%
@ 1.77-3.4pp
Virtus Bologna 1st half total 43.5 · main line
Over
42.0%
@ 1.74-9.4pp
Under
58.0%
@ 1.84+9.4pp
1st half Spread Valencia -5.5
VAL -5.5
56.3%
@ 2.00+10.1pp
VIR +5.5
43.7%
@ 1.72-10.1pp
1st half Spread Valencia -3.5
VAL -3.5
64.1%
@ 1.72+10.3pp
VIR +3.5
35.9%
@ 2.00-10.3pp
1st half Over/Under 93.5
Over
41.2%
@ 2.07-3.5pp
Under
58.8%
@ 1.67+3.5pp
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
VAL
74.9%
@ 1.38+9.6pp
Draw
3.1%
@ 16.50-2.3pp
VIR
21.9%
@ 3.08-7.3pp

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Overtime
🔒 Pro
🔒 1 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Valencia -4.579.9%1.47
1xBet
1.47		----+18.4pp
Virtus Bologna under 89.572.0%1.66
1xBet
1.66		----+17.6pp
Valencia win88.5%1.25
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.24		---+13.2pp
1st half: Valencia (regulation)74.9%1.38
1xBet
1.38		----+9.6pp
Q1: Valencia or draw71.9%1.38
1xBet
1.38		-----
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 6 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 95.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.025.0
56.8%
55.2%50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.210.1
34.6%
35.7%30.3
🏀 Free throws20.715.6
75.4%
77.1%15.6
They take 73.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 92.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.821.9
55.0%
55.2%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.8
36.3%
35.7%29.4
🏀 Free throws24.819.7
79.4%
77.1%19.7
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Valencia
WWWWLWWWWL
Virtus Bologna
LWLLLLWLWW
#3
League position
#16
+8.9
Net rating
+3.7
108.3
Offensive rating
102.2
99.4
Defensive rating
98.4
54.8%
Effective FG%
54.8%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
8.8%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.37
34.6%
3-point %
36.3%
51.0%
Assist %
57.7%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence108.3 · 102.2Defence99.4 · 98.4Shooting54.8% · 54.8%3-point %34.6% · 36.3%Ball care8.8% · 14.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Valencia   ■ Virtus Bologna
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Valencia wins
3
Virtus Bologna wins
DateGameScore
03/04/26Virtus Bologna v Valencia81-94
03/10/25Valencia v Virtus Bologna103-94
29/02/24Virtus Bologna v Valencia87-74
21/12/23Valencia v Virtus Bologna79-71
06/04/23Valencia v Virtus Bologna79-68
17/11/22Virtus Bologna v Valencia89-59
04/05/22Valencia v Virtus Bologna73-83
09/02/22Valencia v Virtus Bologna83-77
10/11/21Virtus Bologna v Valencia96-97
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HBayern102-87
08/11/26ASan Pablo Burgos100-93
05/11/26AOlimpia Milano84-73
01/11/26AMoraBanc Andorra111-79
30/10/26ABarcelona94-98
27/10/26HFenerbahce86-78
25/10/26HBaskonia84-75
23/10/26AParis104-93
18/10/26HMurcia116-93
15/10/26HMaccabi Tel Aviv88-91
Virtus Bolognalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26AAnadolu Efes91-103
09/11/26HVerona95-81
06/11/26HDubai75-93
02/11/26HTrieste93-100
30/10/26HBesiktas101-103
28/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas74-91
25/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-94 OT
21/10/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv81-90
18/10/26HScafati108-83
16/10/26HBaskonia86-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valencia
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW73%
HomeWLLWW67%
AwayWWWLW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %73%67%80%
Points / game96.496.296.6
Allowed / game88.988.090.0
Point differential+7.5+8.2+6.6
Avg total185.3184.2186.6
Over 184.564%50%80%
Win by 10+55%50%60%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %9%17%0%
Virtus Bologna
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL36%
HomeWWLLL40%
AwayLWWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %36%40%33%
Points / game86.186.485.8
Allowed / game90.791.889.8
Point differential-4.6-5.4-4.0
Avg total176.8178.2175.7
Over 184.536%40%33%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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