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Valparaiso vs Illinois (Chi.) Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 66-59
31-32 35-27
Position#170
Record6-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game71.3
Allowed / game70.5
vs
Position#155
Record5-9
FormLLLWL
Points / game77.7
Allowed / game74.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Valparaiso v Illinois (Chi.)
08 Jan 2027
VALP v ILLI
upcoming
04 Jan 2026
VALP66
ILLI59
18 Jan 2025
VALP74
ILLI81
20 Jan 2024
VALP84
ILLI77
17 Jan 2023
VALP76
ILLI66
13 Nov 2021
VALP70
ILLI74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois (Chi.) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland State
#303
W
90-75
90
75
+15
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
56-64
56
64
-8
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
84-55
84
55
+29
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
98-58
98
58
+40
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
70-73
70
73
-3
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
70-86
70
86
-16
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
79-85
79
85
-6
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
48-58
48
58
-10
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
70-75
70
75
-5
A01/01
NCAA
1H
2H
39-27
51-48
30-36
26-28
37-17
47-38
27-23
38-42
53-30
45-28
40-31
30-42
30-39
40-47
39-36
40-49
22-22
26-36
25-36
45-39
144.1Avg total
73.7Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)71.370.5141.8+0.843%
Season at home (8)73.663.9137.5+9.862%
Season away (6)68.279.3147.5-11.217%
Last 10 (10)73.770.4144.1+3.330%
Last 5 (5)67.475.4142.8-8.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)63.175.4138.6-12.314%
vs Similar (16)72.575.2147.7-2.738%
vs Weaker (7)76.165.6141.7+10.657%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
High Point
#10
L
80-90
80
90
-10
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
W
84-73
84
73
+11
H22/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
74-88
74
88
-14
A26/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H03/12
NCAA
Yale
#22
L
66-80
66
80
-14
A07/12
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
84-87
84
87
-3
A13/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
54-60
54
60
-6
H17/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
76-88 OT
76
88
-12
A21/12
NCAA
Illinois Tech
#508
W
102-64
102
64
+38
H29/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
L
77-81
77
81
-4
H02/01
NCAA
1H
2H
39-41
41-49
37-27
47-46
29-50
45-38
26-35
36-28
32-35
34-45
43-30
41-57
27-23
27-37
38-31
33-40
50-24
52-40
40-36
37-45
153.3Avg total
75.9Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)77.774.2151.9+3.536%
Season at home (7)81.166.7147.9+14.457%
Season away (7)74.381.7156.0-7.414%
Last 10 (10)75.977.4153.3-1.520%
Last 5 (5)78.676.0154.6+2.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)71.275.0146.2-3.820%
vs Similar (12)71.877.4149.2-5.725%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)77.572.3149.8+5.258%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: -0.9-0.92nd half: -3.2-3.2
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: +2.9+2.92nd half2nd half: -0.9-0.92nd half: -3.2-3.2
ValparaisoIllinois (Chi.)
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland State
#303
W
39-27
39
27
+12
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H26/11
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
37-17
37
17
+20
H29/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
27-23
27
23
+4
A03/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#553
W
53-30
53
30
+23
H06/12
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H13/12
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A17/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
D
22-22
22
22
+0
A30/12
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A01/01
NCAA
63.9Avg total
34.2Scored
29.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.333.266.5+0.150%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.931.064.9+2.960%-
Last 30 away (15)32.735.568.1-2.840%-
Last 10 (10)34.229.763.9+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)31.232.864.0-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)32.135.067.1-2.957%-
vs Similar (16)32.733.065.7-0.344%-
vs Weaker (7)35.932.067.9+3.957%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
High Point
#10
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A20/11
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H22/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
29-50
29
50
-21
A26/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
26-35
26
35
-9
H03/12
NCAA
Yale
#22
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A07/12
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
43-30
43
30
+13
A13/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
W
27-23
27
23
+4
H17/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A21/12
NCAA
Illinois Tech
#508
W
50-24
50
24
+26
H29/12
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H02/01
NCAA
69.3Avg total
36.1Scored
33.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.735.070.7+0.747%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.833.470.2+3.362%-
Last 30 away (14)34.536.771.2-2.229%-
Last 10 (10)36.133.269.3+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)39.628.868.4+10.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)37.637.074.6+0.640%-
vs Similar (12)32.837.670.4-4.833%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)37.032.369.3+4.758%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Valparaiso wins
6
Illinois (Chi.) wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/01/26ASouthern Illinois70-75
30/12/25ANorthern Iowa48-58
21/12/25HMurray State79-85
17/12/25ANorthwestern70-86
13/12/25HNC Wilmington70-73
06/12/25HCalumet College98-58
03/12/25AMarquette72-75 OT
29/11/25HWestern Michigan84-55
26/11/25HSouthern Indiana56-64
20/11/25ACleveland State90-75
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/01/26HMurray State77-81
29/12/25HIllinois Tech102-64
21/12/25ACharlotte76-88 OT
17/12/25HNorthern Iowa54-60
13/12/25ABelmont84-87
07/12/25AYale66-80
03/12/25HArkansas-Pine Bluff62-63
26/11/25ARobert Morris74-88
22/11/25HSouthern Indiana84-73
20/11/25AHigh Point80-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL43%
HomeLWWLL62%
AwayWLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1486
Win %43%62%17%
Points / game71.373.668.2
Allowed / game70.563.979.3
Point differential+0.8+9.8-11.2
Avg total141.8137.5147.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%38%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)67% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %7%0%17%
Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL36%
HomeWLLWL57%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %36%57%14%
Points / game77.781.174.3
Allowed / game74.266.781.7
Point differential+3.5+14.4-7.4
Avg total151.9147.9156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%57%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %7%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont1613381%83.171.6+11.5
2 Illinois State1512380%79.965.2+14.7
3 Murray State1512380%88.478.2+10.2
4 Northern Iowa1411379%70.557.9+12.6
5 Bradley1510567%78.370.7+7.6
6 Indiana State158753%76.073.8+2.2
7 Drake147750%77.469.4+8.0
8 Southern Illinois157847%78.774.0+4.7
9 Valparaiso146843%71.370.5+0.8
10 Illinois (Chi.)145936%77.774.2+3.5
11 Evansville1541127%67.873.1-5.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso313566
Illinois (Chi.)322759
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