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Illinois (Chi.) vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 07 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 50-67
21-37 29-30
Position#154
Record18-13
FormWLWLW
Points / game77.4
Allowed / game74.0
vs
Position#248
Record13-18
FormLWWLL
Points / game75.6
Allowed / game75.2
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Illinois (Chi.) v Valparaiso
02 Dec 2026
ILLI v VALP
upcoming
21 Feb 2026
ILLI67
VALP71
06 Mar 2025
ILLI50
VALP67
02 Mar 2025
ILLI77
VALP73
06 Jan 2024
ILLI70
VALP64
19 Feb 2023
ILLI74
VALP73
01 Dec 2020
ILLI66
VALP50
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois (Chi.) winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
W
93-70
93
70
+23
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
83-88
83
88
-5
H01/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
79-81
79
81
-2
H06/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
67-79
67
79
-12
A08/02
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
53-63
53
63
-10
A12/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
63-58
63
58
+5
H16/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
57-74
57
74
-17
A20/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
82-77
82
77
+5
H22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
52-74
52
74
-22
A27/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
77-73
77
73
+4
H02/03
NCAA
1H
2H
55-39
38-31
41-52
42-36
37-45
42-36
22-30
45-49
20-31
33-32
35-30
28-28
28-45
29-29
39-31
43-46
26-41
26-33
39-32
38-41
144.3Avg total
70.6Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)77.474.0151.4+3.358%
Season at home (16)81.074.8155.8+6.262%
Season away (15)73.573.2146.7+0.353%
Last 10 (10)70.673.7144.3-3.140%
Last 5 (5)66.271.2137.4-5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)75.070.8145.8+4.260%
vs Similar ◀ (16)73.377.9151.2-4.644%
vs Weaker (7)78.773.7152.4+5.071%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#270
L
75-79
75
79
-4
H29/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
78-86
78
86
-8
A01/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
62-80
62
80
-18
A06/02
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
56-74
56
74
-18
H08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
W
101-86
101
86
+15
H13/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
L
69-79
69
79
-10
A17/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H20/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
W
83-79
83
79
+4
A23/02
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
65-76
65
76
-11
H27/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
L
73-77
73
77
-4
A02/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-29
41-50
38-45
40-41
31-39
31-41
23-33
33-41
56-39
45-47
44-40
25-39
26-30
40-34
31-37
52-42
29-28
36-48
32-39
41-38
150.8Avg total
72.8Scored
78.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)75.675.2150.7+0.442%
Season at home (17)80.472.1152.5+8.259%
Season away (14)69.878.9148.6-9.121%
Last 10 (10)72.878.0150.8-5.230%
Last 5 (5)71.275.0146.2-3.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.178.1148.3-8.014%
vs Similar ◀ (17)74.875.6150.4-0.847%
vs Weaker (5)81.473.8155.2+7.660%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.4-3.41st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +0.3+0.32nd half: -3.7-3.7
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -3.4-3.41st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +0.3+0.32nd half: -3.7-3.7
Illinois (Chi.)Valparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#30
W
55-39
55
39
+16
A30/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
41-52
41
52
-11
H01/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H06/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
22-30
22
30
-8
A08/02
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
20-31
20
31
-11
A12/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H16/02
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
28-45
28
45
-17
A20/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H22/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A27/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#248
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H02/03
NCAA
71.8Avg total
34.2Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.536.673.1-0.037%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.737.976.6+0.740%-
Last 30 away (15)34.435.269.6-0.833%-
Last 10 (10)34.237.671.8-3.440%-
Last 5 (5)33.435.869.2-2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)36.636.673.2+0.040%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)33.738.271.9-4.512%-
vs Weaker (7)39.033.672.6+5.471%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Illinois
#270
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H29/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A01/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
31-39
31
39
-8
A06/02
NCAA
Murray State
#214
L
23-33
23
33
-10
H08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
W
56-39
56
39
+17
H13/02
NCAA
Evansville
#319
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A17/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
L
26-30
26
30
-4
H20/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#270
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A23/02
NCAA
Bradley
#30
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H27/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#154
L
32-39
32
39
-7
A02/03
NCAA
70.3Avg total
34.4Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.835.470.2-0.647%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.532.870.4+4.771%-
Last 30 away (13)31.238.870.0-7.515%-
Last 10 (10)34.435.970.3-1.540%-
Last 5 (5)32.434.867.2-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)31.135.366.4-4.143%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)34.135.569.5-1.441%-
vs Weaker (5)36.838.875.6-2.060%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Illinois (Chi.) wins
2
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/25HValparaiso77-73
27/02/25ANorthern Iowa52-74
22/02/25HEvansville82-77
20/02/25ADrake57-74
16/02/25HMissouri State63-58
12/02/25AMurray State53-63
08/02/25ASouthern Illinois67-79
06/02/25HIllinois State79-81
01/02/25HIndiana State83-88
30/01/25ABradley93-70
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/25AIllinois (Chi.)73-77
27/02/25HBradley65-76
23/02/25ASouthern Illinois83-79
20/02/25HMissouri State66-64
17/02/25AEvansville69-79
13/02/25HBelmont101-86
08/02/25HMurray State56-74
06/02/25AIndiana State62-80
01/02/25AIllinois State78-86
29/01/25HSouthern Illinois75-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW58%
HomeLLWWW62%
AwayWLLLL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %58%62%53%
Points / game77.481.073.5
Allowed / game74.074.873.2
Point differential+3.3+6.2+0.3
Avg total151.4155.8146.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (11)60% (10)0% (1)
Overtime %10%12%7%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL42%
HomeLLWWL59%
AwayLLLWL21%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311714
Win %42%59%21%
Points / game75.680.469.8
Allowed / game75.272.178.9
Point differential+0.4+8.2-9.1
Avg total150.7152.5148.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%35%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (8)75% (4)75% (4)
Overtime %6%6%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake3027390%70.859.2+11.5
2 Bradley3124777%78.269.3+8.9
3 Belmont31211068%80.477.7+2.7
4 Northern Iowa31201165%73.967.3+6.6
5 Illinois State32191359%75.971.8+4.1
6 Illinois (Chi.)31181358%77.474.0+3.3
7 Murray State32161650%72.269.1+3.0
8 Indiana State32141844%80.179.5+0.6
9 Southern Illinois32141844%73.574.6-1.1
10 Valparaiso31131842%75.675.2+0.4
11 Evansville32112134%66.070.7-4.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois (Chi.)212950
Valparaiso373067
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