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Varese vs AEK Larnaca Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 12 Dec 2018
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 109-74
28-20 26-23 30-18 25-13
Position#4
Record5-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game72.0
Varese 🏆
vs
Position#27
Record4-2
FormWWWWW
Points / game74.8
Allowed / game76.7
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 1
European cup2018
Meetings · Varese v AEK Larnaca
12 Dec 2018
VAR109
ALA74
27 Jan 2016
VAR74
ALA72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
AEK Larnaca winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trieste
#10
W
78-66
78
66
+12
H28/10
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
L
77-85
77
85
-8
A30/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#14
L
68-74
68
74
-6
A04/11
Lega A
Rilski Sportist
#34
W
86-59
86
59
+27
H07/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Avellino
#9
L
79-83
79
83
-4
H11/11
Lega A
FC Porto
#36
W
89-71
89
71
+18
A14/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cremona
#3
W
82-79
82
79
+3
A18/11
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
W
91-66
91
66
+25
H21/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#5
W
85-67
85
67
+18
H25/11
Lega A
Venezia
#2
W
66-61
66
61
+5
A09/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-17
25-23
21-15
11-11
19-19
18-16
18-22
22-28
21-16
12-17
14-19
21-22
23-17
22-12
21-18
20-12
19-22
24-20
21-20
15-21
21-14
16-22
30-22
22-13
25-10
14-28
22-18
21-23
15-11
22-16
26-24
28-15
24-12
18-23
27-16
16-16
13-26
17-7
14-10
22-18
151.2Avg total
80.1Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)87.072.0159.0+15.083%
Season at home (3)87.066.7153.7+20.3100%
Season away (3)87.077.3164.3+9.767%
Last 10 (10)80.171.1151.2+9.070%
Last 5 (5)82.668.8151.4+13.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (16)77.373.6150.9+3.762%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)81.774.5156.2+7.271%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Apoel BC
#3
L
86-88 OT
86
88
-2
A27/10
Division A
Minsk
#15
L
75-87
75
87
-12
A31/10
FIBA Europe Cup
AEL
#7
W
82-76 OT
82
76
+6
H03/11
Division A
Balkan
#9
W
78-77
78
77
+1
A07/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#8
W
85-75
85
75
+10
A10/11
Division A
Belfius Mons
#35
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H14/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Apollon
#4
W
66-56
66
56
+10
H17/11
Division A
Minsk
#15
W
82-77
82
77
+5
H21/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Omonia
#5
W
80-50
80
50
+30
A24/11
Division A
Keravnos
#2
W
100-95 OT
100
95
+5
A08/12
Division A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-20
15-26
29-14
15-19
14-19
25-20
13-25
23-23
21-14
10-23
17-17
22-16
24-20
23-26
13-15
18-16
17-26
22-21
18-17
28-11
13-9
18-22
20-18
12-13
16-15
17-18
18-9
15-14
20-14
19-22
18-26
25-15
19-21
22-11
25-13
14-5
22-29
10-24
26-13
25-17
154.0Avg total
79.7Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)74.876.7151.5-1.867%
Season at home (3)71.072.7143.7-1.767%
Season away (3)78.780.7159.3-2.067%
Last 10 (10)79.774.3154.0+5.480%
Last 5 (5)78.268.0146.2+10.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)72.277.4149.6-5.150%
vs Similar (7)75.774.0149.7+1.771%
vs Weaker (15)82.968.5151.5+14.487%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.7+3.7Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +4.8+4.8
VareseAEK Larnaca
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trieste
#10
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H28/10
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A30/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#14
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A04/11
Lega A
Rilski Sportist
#34
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H07/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Avellino
#9
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H11/11
Lega A
FC Porto
#36
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A14/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cremona
#3
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A18/11
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H21/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#5
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H25/11
Lega A
Venezia
#2
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A09/12
Lega A
73.7Avg total
38.9Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.035.175.1+4.977%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.134.477.5+8.793%-
Last 30 away (15)37.035.872.8+1.260%-
Last 10 (10)38.934.873.7+4.180%-
Last 5 (5)37.033.870.8+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (16)39.535.875.3+3.775%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)40.634.374.9+6.479%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Apoel BC
#3
L
35-46
35
46
-11
A27/10
Division A
Minsk
#15
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A31/10
FIBA Europe Cup
AEL
#7
L
31-37
31
37
-6
H03/11
Division A
Balkan
#9
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A07/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#8
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A10/11
Division A
Belfius Mons
#35
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H14/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Apollon
#4
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H17/11
Division A
Minsk
#15
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Omonia
#5
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A24/11
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
32-53
32
53
-21
A08/12
Division A
76.7Avg total
36.7Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.137.076.0+2.153%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.535.072.5+2.553%-
Last 30 away (15)40.738.979.6+1.753%-
Last 10 (10)36.740.076.7-3.330%-
Last 5 (5)35.237.072.2-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)37.438.475.8-1.038%-
vs Similar (7)35.341.176.4-5.929%-
vs Weaker (15)41.734.376.0+7.573%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 76.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.519.6
52.3%
52.5%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.48.8
31.0%
34.1%26.4
🏀 Free throws15.510.7
69.0%
73.3%10.7
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Varese wins
1
AEK Larnaca wins
DateGameScore
27/01/16Varese v AEK Larnaca74-72
06/01/16AEK Larnaca v Varese65-61
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/12/18AVenezia66-61
25/11/18HBrindisi85-67
21/11/18HAlba Fehervar91-66
18/11/18ACremona82-79
14/11/18AFC Porto89-71
11/11/18HAvellino79-83
07/11/18HRilski Sportist86-59
04/11/18AReggiana68-74
30/10/18AAlba Fehervar77-85
28/10/18HTrieste78-66
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/12/18AKeravnos100-95 OT
24/11/18AOmonia80-50
21/11/18HMinsk82-77
17/11/18HApollon66-56
14/11/18HBelfius Mons63-62
10/11/18AParalimni85-75
07/11/18ABalkan78-77
03/11/18HAEL82-76 OT
31/10/18AMinsk75-87
27/10/18AApoel BC86-88 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
FIBA Europe Cup 2018
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW83%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %83%100%67%
Points / game87.087.087.0
Allowed / game72.066.777.3
Point differential+15.0+20.3+9.7
Avg total159.0153.7164.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
AEK Larnaca
FIBA Europe Cup 2018
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW67%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game74.871.078.7
Allowed / game76.772.780.7
Point differential-1.8-1.7-2.0
Avg total151.5143.7159.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bakken Bears770100%106.375.0+31.3
2 Sassari98189%94.276.0+18.2
3 Saratov76186%96.682.6+14.0
4 Varese65183%87.072.0+15.0
5 Nes Ziona118373%91.882.5+9.3
6 Karsiyaka75271%80.672.4+8.1
7 Lukoil Levski75271%87.080.4+6.6
8 s.Oliver Wurzburg75271%79.973.3+6.6
9 Szolnoki Olaj75271%82.778.3+4.4
10 Donar Groningen75271%78.774.9+3.9
11 Balkan96367%80.075.3+4.7
12 Alba Fehervar96367%84.182.4+1.7
13 Leiden96367%75.377.0-1.7
14 AEK Larnaca64267%74.876.7-1.8
15 Z-Mobile Prishtina74357%83.386.9-3.6
16 Kataja116555%80.282.3-2.1
17 Spirou Charleroi63350%81.070.5+10.5
18 Sakarya BB63350%80.075.2+4.8
19 Den Bosch84450%82.879.8+3.0
20 Aris63350%74.072.0+2.0
21 Minsk63350%82.882.2+0.7
22 Keravnos21150%64.068.0-4.0
23 Lavrio21150%70.074.5-4.5
24 Cluj Napoca21150%83.589.5-6.0
25 BC Lulea21150%64.080.0-16.0
26 Cherkaski Mavpy104640%80.184.3-4.2
27 Szombathely62433%74.384.5-10.2
28 BC Dnipro103730%71.776.9-5.2
29 Istanbul BB103730%72.279.4-7.2
30 Rilski Sportist82625%79.187.9-8.8
31 Belfius Mons61517%74.878.3-3.5
32 FC Porto61517%79.285.5-6.3
33 CSM Oradea61517%75.584.5-9.0
34 BC Steaua Bucuresti61517%71.386.5-15.2
35 Leicester Riders6060%74.587.7-13.2
36 HydroTruck Radom2020%67.080.5-13.5
37 Kapfenberg Bulls2020%59.573.5-14.0
38 Sodertalje2020%71.586.0-14.5
39 Kongsberg Miners2020%76.592.0-15.5
40 Svitavy2020%76.098.5-22.5
41 Pardubice6060%77.3100.8-23.5
42 Benfica2020%79.0105.5-26.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese28263025109
AEK Larnaca2023181374
← all games of the day
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