PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Varese vs Avellino Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Nov 2018
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 79-83
19-22 24-20 21-20 15-21
Position#7
Record3-2
FormWWLLW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game75.2
Varese
Italy
vs
Avellino 🏆
Italy
Position#9
Record3-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game92.6
Allowed / game83.4
ItalyLega ARound 6
Domestic2018-19
Meetings · Varese v Avellino
11 Nov 2018
VAR79
AVE83
18 Mar 2018
VAR82
AVE75
06 Nov 2016
VAR77
AVE79
07 Dec 2015
VAR81
AVE93
10 May 2015
VAR66
AVE73
03 Nov 2013
VAR85
AVE68
06 Oct 2012
VAR91
AVE83
11 Jan 2012
VAR94
AVE78
30 Jan 2011
VAR83
AVE85
08 Nov 2009
VAR74
AVE91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Avellino winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
L
64-69 OT
64
69
-5
no box
H16/05
Lega A
Brescia
#12
W
81-80
81
80
+1
110avg 113
H07/10
Lega A
Sassari
#4
L
60-71
60
71
-11
79avg 113
A14/10
Lega A
Rilski Sportist
#34
W
95-76
95
76
+19
no box
A17/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trento
#6
W
93-85
93
85
+8
123avg 113
H21/10
Lega A
FC Porto
#36
W
84-75
84
75
+9
no box
H24/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trieste
#10
W
78-66
78
66
+12
109avg 113
H28/10
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
L
77-85
77
85
-8
no box
A30/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#14
L
68-74
68
74
-6
164avg 113
A04/11
Lega A
Rilski Sportist
#34
W
86-59
86
59
+27
no box
H07/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-14
18-9
24-20
10-17
21-22
22-19
23-23
15-16
8-16
10-15
27-21
15-19
29-16
25-17
25-24
16-19
23-20
22-13
28-25
20-27
27-19
22-25
17-16
18-15
21-17
25-23
21-15
11-11
19-19
18-16
18-22
22-28
21-16
12-17
14-19
21-22
23-17
22-12
21-18
20-12
152.6Avg total
78.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)76.075.2151.2+0.860%
Season at home (3)84.077.0161.0+7.0100%
Season away (2)64.072.5136.5-8.50%
Last 10 (10)78.674.0152.6+4.660%
Last 5 (5)78.671.8150.4+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)76.072.0148.0+4.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (15)77.474.4151.8+3.060%
vs Weaker (14)81.678.1159.7+3.657%
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AvellinoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAvellino
Date
Competition
Cantu
#8
W
98-81
98
81
+17
137avg 121
H06/10
Lega A
Nizhny Novgorod
#18
W
100-93 OT
100
93
+7
no box
A09/10
Champions League
Cremona
#3
L
88-94
88
94
-6
no box
A14/10
Lega A
Ludwigsburg
#43
W
96-77
96
77
+19
no box
A17/10
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
90-96
90
96
-6
122avg 121
H21/10
Lega A
Anwil Wloclawek
#39
W
105-102 OT
105
102
+3
no box
H23/10
Champions League
Brescia
#12
W
77-74
77
74
+3
107avg 121
A27/10
Lega A
Murcia
#2
L
69-72
69
72
-3
no box
A30/10
Champions League
Trento
#6
W
110-72
110
72
+38
147avg 121
H03/11
Lega A
Banvit
#15
W
99-95
99
95
+4
no box
H07/11
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-20
26-26
22-19
18-16
23-19
17-22
17-11
18-23
23-26
21-16
25-26
19-26
24-15
23-16
24-23
25-23
25-26
21-22
24-18
20-30
28-26
23-23
24-24
19-21
13-20
21-19
21-15
22-20
14-28
19-8
24-19
12-17
32-18
26-26
28-10
24-18
33-30
26-22
22-25
18-18
178.8Avg total
93.2Scored
85.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)92.683.4176.0+9.260%
Season at home (3)99.383.0182.3+16.367%
Season away (2)82.584.0166.5-1.550%
Last 10 (10)93.285.6178.8+7.670%
Last 5 (5)92.083.0175.0+9.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)89.088.5177.5+0.550%
vs Similar ◀ (20)80.579.0159.4+1.550%
vs Weaker (6)88.874.7163.5+14.283%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +4.1+4.1Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -1.7-1.7
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +2.3+2.3Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +4.1+4.1Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -1.7-1.7
VareseAvellino
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#3
W
26-23
26
23
+3
H16/05
Lega A
Brescia
#12
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H07/10
Lega A
Sassari
#4
L
18-31
18
31
-13
A14/10
Lega A
Rilski Sportist
#34
W
54-33
54
33
+21
A17/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trento
#6
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H21/10
Lega A
FC Porto
#36
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H24/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Trieste
#10
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H28/10
Lega A
Alba Fehervar
#7
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A30/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#14
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A04/11
Lega A
Rilski Sportist
#34
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H07/11
FIBA Europe Cup
73.8Avg total
39.6Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.736.277.0+4.573%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.134.978.9+9.293%-
Last 30 away (16)37.837.475.2+0.456%-
Last 10 (10)39.634.273.8+5.480%-
Last 5 (5)42.036.278.2+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)42.036.078.0+6.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)40.136.876.9+3.373%-
vs Weaker (14)41.435.677.0+5.771%-
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AvellinoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cantu
#8
W
58-46
58
46
+12
H06/10
Lega A
Nizhny Novgorod
#18
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A09/10
Champions League
Cremona
#3
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A14/10
Lega A
Ludwigsburg
#43
W
47-31
47
31
+16
A17/10
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H21/10
Lega A
Anwil Wloclawek
#39
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H23/10
Champions League
Brescia
#12
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A27/10
Lega A
Murcia
#2
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A30/10
Champions League
Trento
#6
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H03/11
Lega A
Banvit
#15
W
59-52
59
52
+7
H07/11
Champions League
89.8Avg total
47.0Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.338.280.5+4.167%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.440.186.5+6.373%-
Last 30 away (15)38.136.374.5+1.860%-
Last 10 (10)47.042.889.8+4.260%-
Last 5 (5)47.044.091.0+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)44.042.886.8+1.250%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)40.238.278.5+2.060%-
vs Weaker (6)48.035.083.0+13.0100%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 75.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.918.2
52.1%
51.0%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.69.1
30.7%
35.1%27.3
🏀 Free throws17.311.4
65.9%
72.3%11.4
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Avellinotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Avellino: 84.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.824.3
58.1%
51.0%48.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.27.6
35.8%
35.1%22.8
🏀 Free throws16.212.9
79.6%
72.3%12.9
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Nov 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WLLWWWWLWL
Avellino
WWLWWLWLWW
#7
League position
#9
+0.3
Net rating
+6.3
102.0
Offensive rating
108.4
101.7
Defensive rating
102.1
49.4%
Effective FG%
56.7%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
47.0%
17.4%
Turnover %
18.3%
29.4%
Off. rebound %
20.8%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.26
30.7%
3-point %
35.8%
59.7%
Assist %
61.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence102.0 · 108.4Defence101.7 · 102.1Shooting49.4% · 56.7%3-point %30.7% · 35.8%Ball care17.4% · 18.3%Off. rebounds29.4% · 20.8%Free throws0.27 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Varese   ■ Avellino
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Varese wins
6
Avellino wins
DateGameScore
18/03/18Varese v Avellino82-75
12/11/17Avellino v Varese65-61
05/03/17Avellino v Varese75-82
06/11/16Varese v Avellino77-79 OT
26/03/16Avellino v Varese89-71
07/12/15Varese v Avellino81-93
10/05/15Varese v Avellino66-73
11/01/15Avellino v Varese67-91
16/02/14Avellino v Varese83-63
03/11/13Varese v Avellino85-68
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/18HRilski Sportist86-59
04/11/18AReggiana68-74
30/10/18AAlba Fehervar77-85
28/10/18HTrieste78-66
24/10/18HFC Porto84-75
21/10/18HTrento93-85
17/10/18ARilski Sportist95-76
14/10/18ASassari60-71
07/10/18HBrescia81-80
16/05/18HBrescia64-69 OT
Avellinolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/18HBanvit99-95
03/11/18HTrento110-72
30/10/18AMurcia69-72
27/10/18ABrescia77-74
23/10/18HAnwil Wloclawek105-102 OT
21/10/18HVirtus Bologna90-96
17/10/18ALudwigsburg96-77
14/10/18ACremona88-94
09/10/18ANizhny Novgorod100-93 OT
06/10/18HCantu98-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL60%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%100%0%
Points / game76.084.064.0
Allowed / game75.277.072.5
Point differential+0.8+7.0-8.5
Avg total151.2161.0136.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Avellino
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW60%
HomeWLW67%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%67%50%
Points / game92.699.382.5
Allowed / game83.483.084.0
Point differential+9.2+16.3-1.5
Avg total176.0182.3166.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Venezia660100%89.571.3+18.2
2 Olimpia Milano660100%98.080.3+17.7
3 Cremona54180%88.284.4+3.8
4 Brindisi64267%83.777.5+6.2
5 Avellino53260%92.683.4+9.2
6 Varese53260%76.075.2+0.8
7 Sassari63350%81.779.5+2.2
8 Cantu63350%83.785.0-1.3
9 Virtus Bologna63350%83.087.5-4.5
10 Trieste52340%82.884.2-1.4
11 Brescia62433%80.380.7-0.3
12 Torino62433%79.782.7-3.0
13 Reggiana62433%82.287.8-5.7
14 Pesaro51420%76.288.6-12.4
15 Trento61517%78.092.2-14.2
16 Pistoia5050%76.494.6-18.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese1924211579
Avellino2220202183
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.