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Virtus Roma vs Brescia Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 07 Mar 2021
Tip-off: 17:15
Scheduled
Position#16
Record2-7
FormLWLLL
Points / game74.9
Allowed / game87.7
vs
Position#11
Record9-11
FormWLWWW
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game83.6
ItalyLega ARound 21
Domestic2020-21
Meetings · Virtus Roma v Brescia
07 Mar 2021
VRO v BRE
upcoming
22 Dec 2019
VRO53
BRE83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virtus Roma win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Brescia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Virtus RomaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#4
L
62-98
62
98
-36
A14/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H27/09
Lega A
Brindisi
#3
L
67-92
67
92
-25
A04/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
72-92
72
92
-20
H11/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
71-93
71
93
-22
A18/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
69-84
69
84
-15
H25/10
Lega A
Brescia
#11
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
71-89
71
89
-18
H08/11
Lega A
Varese
#12
L
88-98
88
98
-10
A15/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
85-101
85
101
-16
A22/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-19
20-20
12-32
17-27
20-20
24-12
20-28
17-16
15-22
14-25
20-27
18-18
10-21
13-23
21-18
28-30
16-25
14-28
17-24
24-16
14-18
18-22
17-23
20-21
18-29
16-12
20-10
16-13
15-28
28-24
10-14
18-23
17-20
16-28
28-23
27-27
21-23
15-23
27-28
22-27
162.3Avg total
73.6Scored
88.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)74.987.7162.6-12.822%
Season at home (4)73.285.2158.5-12.025%
Season away (5)76.289.6165.8-13.420%
Last 10 (10)73.688.7162.3-15.120%
Last 5 (5)76.687.2163.8-10.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)74.490.9165.3-16.415%
vs Similar (2)81.076.5157.5+4.550%
vs Weaker (1)92.083.0175.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Levallois
#8
L
81-86
81
86
-5
A15/12
Eurocup
Cantu
#15
W
92-89 OT
92
89
+3
A20/12
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
87-100
87
100
-13
A27/12
Lega A
Cremona
#9
L
85-89
85
89
-4
H03/01
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
88-98
88
98
-10
A10/01
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
90-89
90
89
+1
A23/01
Lega A
Treviso
#7
L
91-94
91
94
-3
H31/01
Lega A
Trieste
#6
W
81-78
81
78
+3
A07/02
Lega A
Varese
#12
W
98-83
98
83
+15
H10/02
Lega A
Reggiana
#13
W
89-79
89
79
+10
H28/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-22
20-22
17-17
23-25
22-32
27-17
19-18
12-13
31-15
15-26
23-30
18-29
33-21
21-23
17-18
14-27
22-16
23-24
15-28
28-30
15-16
33-24
15-29
27-20
17-36
16-25
29-20
29-13
27-22
13-19
18-20
23-17
24-16
24-20
24-22
26-25
15-22
32-21
24-26
18-10
176.7Avg total
88.2Scored
88.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)82.083.6165.6-1.645%
Season at home (10)82.579.3161.8+3.250%
Season away (10)81.587.9169.4-6.440%
Last 10 (10)88.288.5176.7-0.350%
Last 5 (5)89.884.6174.4+5.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)76.083.6159.6-7.621%
vs Similar (15)84.984.8169.7+0.153%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)64.070.0134.0-6.00%
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.6-6.6Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -3.9-3.9Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -3.5-3.5Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.9+0.9
Virtus RomaBrescia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Virtus RomaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#4
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A14/09
Lega A - Super Cup
Fortitudo Bologna
#14
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H27/09
Lega A
Brindisi
#3
L
29-47
29
47
-18
A04/10
Lega A
Sassari
#5
L
23-44
23
44
-21
H11/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
30-53
30
53
-23
A18/10
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H25/10
Lega A
Brescia
#11
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A31/10
Lega A
Venezia
#4
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H08/11
Lega A
Varese
#12
L
33-48
33
48
-15
A15/11
Lega A
Cantu
#15
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A22/11
Lega A
77.9Avg total
33.7Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.947.184.0-10.220%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.445.381.6-8.929%-
Last 30 away (16)37.348.786.0-11.412%-
Last 10 (10)33.744.277.9-10.510%-
Last 5 (5)35.645.481.0-9.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)35.948.284.1-12.311%-
vs Similar (2)46.535.582.0+11.0100%-
vs Weaker (1)44.040.084.0+4.0100%-
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Levallois
#8
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A15/12
Eurocup
Cantu
#15
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A20/12
Lega A
Sassari
#5
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A27/12
Lega A
Cremona
#9
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H03/01
Lega A
Pesaro
#10
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A10/01
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A23/01
Lega A
Treviso
#7
L
33-61
33
61
-28
H31/01
Lega A
Trieste
#6
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A07/02
Lega A
Varese
#12
W
48-36
48
36
+12
H10/02
Lega A
Reggiana
#13
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H28/02
Lega A
89.0Avg total
45.1Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.940.882.7+1.160%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.939.582.4+3.580%-
Last 30 away (15)40.942.283.1-1.340%-
Last 10 (10)45.143.989.0+1.260%-
Last 5 (5)43.244.287.4-1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.440.980.3-1.450%-
vs Similar (15)44.341.385.5+3.067%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)41.034.075.0+7.0100%-
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Virtus Romatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Roma: 75.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.620.9
52.8%
51.2%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.57.4
31.5%
35.9%22.2
🏀 Free throws17.011.2
65.9%
75.8%11.2
They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bresciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brescia: 85.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.622.2
52.1%
51.2%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.19.5
41.1%
35.9%28.5
🏀 Free throws14.912.4
83.2%
75.8%12.4
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Mar 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Virtus Roma
LLLWLLLLWL
Brescia
WWWLWLLLWL
#16
League position
#11
-16.4
Net rating
-0.9
100.3
Offensive rating
112.6
116.7
Defensive rating
113.5
50.7%
Effective FG%
55.5%
54.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
16.6%
Turnover %
15.6%
21.5%
Off. rebound %
25.5%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.23
31.5%
3-point %
41.1%
56.9%
Assist %
64.4%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence100.3 · 112.6Defence116.7 · 113.5Shooting50.7% · 55.5%3-point %31.5% · 41.1%Ball care16.6% · 15.6%Off. rebounds21.5% · 25.5%Free throws0.27 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)20% · 50%
■ Virtus Roma   ■ Brescia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Virtus Roma wins
1
Brescia wins
DateGameScore
31/10/20Brescia v Virtus Roma64-70
22/12/19Virtus Roma v Brescia53-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/11/20ACantu85-101
15/11/20AVarese88-98
08/11/20HVenezia71-89
31/10/20ABrescia70-64
25/10/20HPesaro69-84
18/10/20AOlimpia Milano71-93
11/10/20HSassari72-92
04/10/20ABrindisi67-92
27/09/20HFortitudo Bologna81-76
14/09/20ABrindisi62-98
Brescialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/21HReggiana89-79
10/02/21HVarese98-83
07/02/21ATrieste81-78
31/01/21HTreviso91-94
23/01/21AVirtus Bologna90-89
10/01/21APesaro88-98
03/01/21HCremona85-89
27/12/20ASassari87-100
20/12/20ACantu92-89 OT
15/12/20ALevallois81-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virtus Roma
Lega A 2020-21
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL22%
HomeWLLL25%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %22%25%20%
Points / game74.973.276.2
Allowed / game87.785.289.6
Point differential-12.8-12.0-13.4
Avg total162.6158.5165.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Brescia
Lega A 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW45%
HomeWLLWW50%
AwayWLLWW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %45%50%40%
Points / game82.082.581.5
Allowed / game83.679.387.9
Point differential-1.6+3.2-6.4
Avg total165.6161.8169.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)25% (4)60% (5)
Overtime %10%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano2017385%87.774.2+13.4
2 Brindisi2015575%86.279.0+7.2
3 Virtus Bologna2014670%85.276.8+8.3
4 Sassari2014670%90.785.3+5.3
5 Venezia2113862%80.577.4+3.0
6 Pesaro20101050%82.882.5+0.2
7 Trieste1991047%80.379.6+0.7
8 Brescia2091145%82.083.6-1.6
9 Treviso1981142%84.289.5-5.3
10 Cremona2081240%85.587.1-1.6
11 Reggiana1971237%75.681.0-5.4
12 Trento2071335%76.779.8-3.1
13 Cantu2071335%79.383.8-4.4
14 Fortitudo Bologna2071335%78.082.6-4.5
15 Varese2171433%81.288.0-6.9
16 Virtus Roma92722%74.987.7-12.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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