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Aguada vs Boca Juniors Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 22:10
Final 54-101
11-28 14-26 21-26 8-21
Position#11
Record1-4
FormWWWLL
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game87.6
vs
Position#2
Record2-2
FormLLLLL
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game79.0
EuropeChampions League Americas· Arena Minas Tenis Clube
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Boca Juniors
05 Feb 2026
AGUA54
BOCA101
11 Dec 2025
AGUA71
BOCA88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boca Juniors winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Nacional
#2
W
98-94
98
94
+4
95avg 85
H21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
72-89
72
89
-17
59avg 85
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
95-87
95
87
+8
87avg 85
H11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
75-95
75
95
-20
no box
A16/01
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
W
88-84
88
84
+4
no box
A17/01
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#11
W
109-86
109
86
+23
120avg 85
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
90-76
90
76
+14
90avg 85
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
91-80
91
80
+11
87avg 85
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
L
74-86
74
86
-12
70avg 85
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
62-94
62
94
-32
49avg 85
A04/02
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-24
25-23
20-14
25-33
20-32
15-17
17-12
20-28
29-23
26-25
23-23
17-16
21-24
15-28
19-21
20-22
25-21
21-13
23-29
19-21
28-19
28-25
28-21
25-21
21-27
18-17
27-18
24-14
25-20
21-21
20-19
25-20
26-16
15-24
17-24
16-22
25-30
16-20
8-24
13-20
172.5Avg total
85.4Scored
87.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)74.087.6161.6-13.620%
Season at home (2)72.582.5155.0-10.00%
Season away (3)75.091.0166.0-16.033%
Last 10 (10)85.487.1172.5-1.760%
Last 5 (5)85.284.4169.6+0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)82.687.4169.9-4.838%
vs Similar (5)99.897.0196.8+2.880%
vs Weaker (9)92.182.4174.6+9.767%
This opponent (Boca Juniors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boca JuniorsLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJuniors
Date
Competition
Aguada
#11
W
88-71
88
71
+17
90avg 74
A11/12
Champions League Americas
Minas
#5
L
61-80
61
80
-19
49avg 74
H12/12
Champions League Americas
Obera TC
#5
L
70-80
70
80
-10
56avg 74
H17/12
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
84-100
84
100
-16
69avg 74
A29/12
Liga A
Minas
#5
W
92-77
92
77
+15
no box
H15/01
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#11
L
84-88
84
88
-4
no box
H17/01
Champions League Americas
Gimnasia
#1
L
71-74
71
74
-3
62avg 74
H24/01
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
66-75
66
75
-9
49avg 74
H25/01
Liga A
San Martin
#12
L
79-85
79
85
-6
72avg 74
A29/01
Liga A
Regatas
#4
L
55-58
55
58
-3
49avg 74
A31/01
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
19-13
19-14
26-23
19-15
18-19
14-19
10-27
18-23
19-17
16-20
17-20
16-23
21-33
22-20
25-24
21-13
25-23
27-18
19-23
21-25
13-21
29-23
21-19
20-20
15-12
19-21
17-21
25-20
10-16
14-22
17-17
24-18
19-18
16-26
20-23
11-11
22-15
9-17
13-15
153.8Avg total
75.0Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)81.279.0160.2+2.250%
Season at home (3)79.081.7160.7-2.733%
Season away (1)88.071.0159.0+17.0100%
Last 10 (10)75.078.8153.8-3.820%
Last 5 (5)71.076.0147.0-5.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (17)75.578.8154.4-3.335%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)85.278.1163.3+7.262%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -2.7-2.7
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -0.6-0.6Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: -1.3-1.3Q4: -2.7-2.7
AguadaBoca Juniors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nacional
#2
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H21/12
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
35-49
35
49
-14
A08/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
55-48
55
48
+7
H11/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
36-52
36
52
-16
A16/01
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A17/01
Champions League Americas
Cordon
#11
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A22/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
41-40
41
40
+1
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Minas
#5
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A04/02
Champions League Americas
89.7Avg total
44.8Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.244.790.9+1.460%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.844.192.8+4.769%-
Last 30 away (17)44.245.289.4-1.153%-
Last 10 (10)44.844.989.7-0.160%-
Last 5 (5)44.643.888.4+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)43.444.988.4-1.544%-
vs Similar (5)50.845.696.4+5.280%-
vs Weaker (9)48.443.992.3+4.678%-
This opponent (Boca Juniors) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boca JuniorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aguada
#11
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A11/12
Champions League Americas
Minas
#5
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H12/12
Champions League Americas
Obera TC
#5
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H17/12
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
37-56
37
56
-19
A29/12
Liga A
Minas
#5
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H15/01
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#11
L
34-46
34
46
-12
H17/01
Champions League Americas
Gimnasia
#1
W
35-32
35
32
+3
H24/01
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H25/01
Liga A
San Martin
#12
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A29/01
Liga A
Regatas
#4
W
33-26
33
26
+7
A31/01
Liga A
75.6Avg total
38.0Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.638.079.6+3.670%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.537.378.8+4.271%-
Last 30 away (16)41.738.680.2+3.169%-
Last 10 (10)38.037.675.6+0.460%-
Last 5 (5)36.035.271.2+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (17)39.537.977.4+1.559%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)44.438.082.4+6.485%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 85.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.9 points a game
48%
36%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.520.8
57.0%
54.0%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.99.6
34.4%
32.4%28.8
🏀 Free throws19.715.0
76.1%
69.7%15.0
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 46%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boca Juniorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boca Juniors: 68.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.9 points a game
48%
36%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.516.9
49.0%
54.0%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.58.0
30.2%
32.4%24.0
🏀 Free throws15.610.8
69.2%
69.7%10.8
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 46%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
LLWWWWLWLW
Boca Juniors
LLLLLWLLLW
#11
League position
#2
+0.0
Net rating
-5.0
101.8
Offensive rating
100.3
101.8
Defensive rating
105.3
54.7%
Effective FG%
47.4%
52.1%
Opp. effective FG%
51.5%
17.9%
Turnover %
11.0%
29.4%
Off. rebound %
29.3%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.4%
3-point %
30.2%
66.1%
Assist %
63.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence101.8 · 100.3Defence101.8 · 105.3Shooting54.7% · 47.4%3-point %34.4% · 30.2%Ball care17.9% · 11.0%Off. rebounds29.4% · 29.3%Free throws0.31 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Aguada   ■ Boca Juniors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Aguada wins
2
Boca Juniors wins
DateGameScore
17/01/26Boca Juniors v Aguada84-88
11/12/25Aguada v Boca Juniors71-88
15/10/22Boca Juniors v Aguada69-59
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/02/26AMinas62-94
30/01/26AWelcome74-86
27/01/26HPenarol91-80
25/01/26HDefensor90-76
22/01/26ACordon109-86
17/01/26ABoca Juniors88-84
16/01/26AMinas75-95
11/01/26HBigua95-87
08/01/26AMalvin72-89
21/12/25HNacional98-94
Boca Juniorslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26ARegatas55-58
29/01/26ASan Martin79-85
25/01/26HQuimsa66-75
24/01/26HGimnasia71-74
17/01/26HAguada84-88
15/01/26HMinas92-77
29/12/25AFerro84-100
17/12/25HObera TC70-80
12/12/25HMinas61-80
11/12/25AAguada88-71

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Champions League Americas 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL20%
HomeLL0%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %20%0%33%
Points / game74.072.575.0
Allowed / game87.682.591.0
Point differential-13.6-10.0-16.0
Avg total161.6155.0166.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Boca Juniors
Champions League Americas 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWL50%
HomeLWL33%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%33%100%
Points / game81.279.088.0
Allowed / game79.081.771.0
Point differential+2.2-2.7+17.0
Avg total160.2160.7159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%33%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astros440100%110.272.5+37.8
2 Nacional440100%83.871.0+12.8
3 Minas54180%84.672.8+11.8
4 Franca43175%101.078.5+22.5
5 Instituto de Cordoba43175%87.887.2+0.5
6 Paisas42250%91.885.0+6.8
7 Boca Juniors42250%81.279.0+2.2
8 Flamengo42250%81.279.0+2.2
9 Aguada51420%74.087.6-13.6
10 Obras Sanitarias4040%72.887.8-15.0
11 U. De Concepcion4040%72.895.8-23.0
12 Caimanes del Llano4040%73.0117.5-44.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada111421854
Boca Juniors28262621101
← all games of the day
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