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Aguada vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 98-94
28-24 25-23 20-14 25-33
Position#3
Record7-4
FormLWLLW
Points / game96.0
Allowed / game89.8
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#2
Record9-3
FormWWLWW
Points / game90.6
Allowed / game82.2
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aguada v Nacional
28 May 2026
AGUA92
NACI91
21 May 2026
AGUA89
NACI109
25 Apr 2026
AGUA94
NACI98
20 Dec 2025
AGUA98
NACI94
30 May 2025
AGUA96
NACI97
25 May 2025
AGUA80
NACI72
19 May 2025
AGUA84
NACI75
13 Mar 2025
AGUA99
NACI81
13 Dec 2024
AGUA88
NACI90
21 May 2024
AGUA92
NACI87
14 May 2024
AGUA115
NACI101
23 Mar 2024
AGUA103
NACI89
18 Jan 2024
AGUA105
NACI111
12 Dec 2022
AGUA91
NACI71
19 Apr 2022
AGUA80
NACI65
06 Apr 2022
AGUA93
NACI72
17 Nov 2021
AGUA78
NACI58
10 Apr 2021
AGUA84
NACI80
12 Feb 2021
AGUA72
NACI85
01 Dec 2020
AGUA20
NACI0
24 Jan 2020
AGUA87
NACI67
03 May 2019
AGUA78
NACI86
25 Apr 2019
AGUA69
NACI75
11 Mar 2019
AGUA123
NACI117
18 Jan 2019
AGUA96
NACI90
04 May 2018
AGUA84
NACI77
26 Apr 2018
AGUA81
NACI91
19 Apr 2018
AGUA76
NACI81
26 Mar 2018
AGUA70
NACI68
10 Nov 2017
AGUA86
NACI78
16 Oct 2013
AGUA81
NACI61
28 Sep 2012
AGUA94
NACI86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
94-82
94
82
+12
92avg 86
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
92-107
92
107
-15
84avg 86
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
107-86
107
86
+21
105avg 86
H04/11
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
89-103
89
103
-14
82avg 86
A08/11
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
112-82
112
82
+30
112avg 86
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
L
78-79
78
79
-1
71avg 86
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
93-76
93
76
+17
90avg 86
A19/11
Liga Uruguaya
Boca Juniors
#2
L
71-88
71
88
-17
56avg 86
H11/12
Champions League Americas
Minas
#5
L
74-77
74
77
-3
64avg 86
H13/12
Champions League Americas
Urunday
#9
W
104-99
104
99
+5
102avg 86
A17/12
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
29-23
21-21
19-16
18-20
19-26
30-30
25-31
22-27
29-20
33-20
23-19
21-20
24-29
26-25
18-29
39-17
27-26
22-25
24-14
22-27
21-14
15-20
20-18
23-28
28-14
17-17
25-17
21-24
13-19
14-19
23-26
19-24
19-16
20-14
16-23
27-26
30-23
28-28
19-22
179.3Avg total
91.4Scored
87.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)96.089.8185.8+6.264%
Season at home (4)107.888.8196.5+19.0100%
Season away (7)89.390.4179.7-1.143%
Last 10 (10)91.487.9179.3+3.550%
Last 5 (5)84.083.8167.8+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)82.586.5168.9-4.027%
vs Similar (4)101.099.5200.5+1.575%
vs Weaker (15)95.084.3179.3+10.780%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Defensor
#7
W
80-61
80
61
+19
72avg 83
H01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
110-93
110
93
+17
101avg 83
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
104-70
104
70
+34
104avg 83
H07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
89-79
89
79
+10
78avg 83
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
64avg 83
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
88-72
88
72
+16
74avg 83
H20/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
109-90
109
90
+19
109avg 83
A04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
69-82
69
82
-13
58avg 83
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Flamengo
#7
W
75-63
75
63
+12
66avg 83
H14/12
Champions League Americas
Obras Sanitarias
#9
W
75-71
75
71
+4
67avg 83
H16/12
Champions League Americas
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-16
30-19
20-11
16-15
34-23
27-24
26-24
23-22
25-21
27-23
26-13
26-13
22-21
15-12
30-17
22-29
10-24
21-21
20-23
24-14
17-18
34-16
14-19
23-19
28-21
34-29
22-20
25-20
16-21
16-19
22-17
15-25
14-16
16-13
23-11
22-23
17-18
20-21
15-19
23-13
163.7Avg total
87.4Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)90.682.2172.8+8.375%
Season at home (6)84.274.7158.8+9.583%
Season away (6)97.089.8186.8+7.267%
Last 10 (10)87.476.3163.7+11.180%
Last 5 (5)83.275.6158.8+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)65.584.5150.0-19.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)90.178.5168.6+11.679%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: +4.3+4.3Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +2.6+2.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: +4.3+4.3Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +2.6+2.6
AguadaNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
54-45
54
45
+9
H25/10
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
37-46
37
46
-9
A29/10
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H04/11
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A08/11
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
66-43
66
43
+23
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
51-42
51
42
+9
A19/11
Liga Uruguaya
Boca Juniors
#2
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H11/12
Champions League Americas
Minas
#5
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H13/12
Champions League Americas
Urunday
#9
W
57-49
57
49
+8
A17/12
Liga Uruguaya
92.1Avg total
47.6Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.644.891.4+1.760%-
Last 30 at home (16)47.944.492.3+3.469%-
Last 30 away (14)45.145.390.4-0.250%-
Last 10 (10)47.644.592.1+3.160%-
Last 5 (5)44.643.087.6+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)43.045.088.0-2.036%-
vs Similar (4)49.845.094.8+4.875%-
vs Weaker (15)48.344.793.0+3.773%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#7
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H01/11
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
61-47
61
47
+14
A03/11
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H07/11
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H10/11
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A14/11
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
51-34
51
34
+17
H20/11
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
62-50
62
50
+12
A04/12
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A09/12
Liga Uruguaya
Flamengo
#7
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H14/12
Champions League Americas
Obras Sanitarias
#9
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H16/12
Champions League Americas
83.3Avg total
43.7Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.141.086.0+4.163%-
Last 30 at home (19)44.438.482.8+5.968%-
Last 30 away (11)46.345.491.6+0.955%-
Last 10 (10)43.739.683.3+4.170%-
Last 5 (5)42.438.480.8+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.041.572.5-10.50%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)46.140.987.0+5.168%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 90.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.621.3
52.5%
53.3%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.510.1
35.4%
33.3%30.3
🏀 Free throws22.617.6
77.9%
70.9%17.6
They take 69.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 86.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.322.7
53.7%
53.3%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.68.9
33.5%
33.3%26.7
🏀 Free throws20.914.5
69.4%
70.9%14.5
They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
WLLWLWLWLW
Nacional
WWLWWLWWWW
#3
League position
#2
+4.5
Net rating
+14.2
113.5
Offensive rating
110.0
109.0
Defensive rating
95.8
52.7%
Effective FG%
52.3%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
46.4%
15.8%
Turnover %
17.3%
31.1%
Off. rebound %
32.8%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.30
35.4%
3-point %
33.5%
66.6%
Assist %
52.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence113.5 · 110.0Defence109.0 · 95.8Shooting52.7% · 52.3%3-point %35.4% · 33.5%Ball care15.8% · 17.3%Off. rebounds31.1% · 32.8%Free throws0.33 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Aguada   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Aguada wins
5
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
21/10/25Nacional v Aguada82-79
02/06/25Nacional v Aguada79-77
31/05/25Aguada v Nacional96-97
28/05/25Nacional v Aguada103-98
26/05/25Aguada v Nacional80-72
23/05/25Nacional v Aguada73-82
20/05/25Aguada v Nacional84-75
17/05/25Nacional v Aguada102-77
13/03/25Aguada v Nacional99-81
13/02/25Nacional v Aguada91-94
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/25AUrunday104-99
13/12/25HMinas74-77
11/12/25HBoca Juniors71-88
19/11/25AGoes93-76
14/11/25AHebraica y Macabi78-79
10/11/25HWelcome112-82
08/11/25APenarol89-103
04/11/25HCordon107-86
29/10/25AUnion Atletica92-107
25/10/25HMalvin94-82
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/25HObras Sanitarias75-71
14/12/25HFlamengo75-63
09/12/25APenarol69-82
04/12/25ACordon109-90
20/11/25HUnion Atletica88-72
14/11/25AMalvin75-82
10/11/25HHebraica y Macabi89-79
07/11/25HUrunday104-70
03/11/25ABigua110-93
01/11/25HDefensor80-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW64%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayLLLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %64%100%43%
Points / game96.0107.889.3
Allowed / game89.888.890.4
Point differential+6.2+19.0-1.1
Avg total185.8196.5179.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%100%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)-50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL75%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWWLWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %75%83%67%
Points / game90.684.297.0
Allowed / game82.274.789.8
Point differential+8.3+9.5+7.2
Avg total172.8158.8186.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%67%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol1412286%86.671.6+15.0
2 Nacional129375%90.682.2+8.3
3 Hebraica y Macabi1410471%82.877.9+4.9
4 Malvin149564%81.681.6-0.1
5 Aguada117464%96.089.8+6.2
6 Defensor127558%88.285.2+3.1
7 Bigua137654%87.288.7-1.5
8 Urunday147750%92.486.1+6.3
9 Union Atletica145936%81.984.4-2.5
10 Goes1331023%82.991.8-8.8
11 Cordon1421214%83.094.9-11.9
12 Welcome131128%81.599.4-17.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada2825202598
Nacional2423143394
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