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Akita vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 05:05
Final 88-79
16-29 28-12 22-20 22-18
Position#14
Record15-15
FormWLLLW
Points / game72.9
Allowed / game74.0
Akita 🏆
Japan
vs
Position#17
Record14-16
FormLLWLL
Points / game81.8
Allowed / game82.6
JapanB League· CNA Arena Akita (Akita)
Other2023-24
Meetings · Akita v Nagasaki
02 May 2027
AKIT v NAGA
upcoming
21 Jan 2024
AKIT88
NAGA79
20 Jan 2024
AKIT78
NAGA71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Akita winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nagasaki winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AkitaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAkita
Date
Competition
Osaka
#18
L
63-65
63
65
-2
53avg 66
A17/12
B League
Gunma
#13
W
84-56
84
56
+28
88avg 66
H20/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
79-63
79
63
+16
72avg 66
A23/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
88-72
88
72
+16
93avg 66
A24/12
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
W
71-61
71
61
+10
69avg 66
H29/12
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
W
77-47
77
47
+30
71avg 66
H30/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
74-81
74
81
-7
74avg 66
A05/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
68-82
68
82
-14
61avg 66
A06/01
B League
Chiba
#9
L
73-105
73
105
-32
54avg 66
A17/01
B League
Nagasaki
#17
W
78-71
78
71
+7
69avg 66
H20/01
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-18
21-21
7-10
18-16
17-13
25-22
15-19
27-2
17-16
21-19
22-11
19-17
28-23
20-20
17-12
23-17
13-17
20-20
20-12
18-12
21-12
10-14
22-12
24-9
19-23
14-19
16-14
25-25
15-23
11-21
17-18
25-20
17-25
22-34
15-20
19-26
18-25
20-17
19-10
21-19
145.8Avg total
75.5Scored
70.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)72.974.0146.9-1.150%
Season at home (15)74.376.6150.9-2.347%
Season away (15)71.571.3142.9+0.253%
Last 10 (10)75.570.3145.8+5.260%
Last 5 (5)74.077.2151.2-3.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)66.077.0143.0-11.012%
vs Similar ◀ (12)72.772.5145.2+0.250%
vs Weaker (10)78.773.3152.0+5.480%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Alvark
#2
L
84-94
84
94
-10
74avg 75
H17/12
B League
Ryukyu
#5
W
76-74
76
74
+2
67avg 75
A20/12
B League
Osaka
#18
L
95-97
95
97
-2
88avg 75
A23/12
B League
Osaka
#18
L
72-90
72
90
-18
60avg 75
A24/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
64-79
64
79
-15
49avg 75
H30/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
68-86
68
86
-18
57avg 75
H31/12
B League
Shinshu
#23
L
73-79
73
79
-6
73avg 75
H06/01
B League
Shinshu
#23
W
92-64
92
64
+28
no box
H07/01
B League
Kyoto
#21
L
75-81
75
81
-6
71avg 75
H17/01
B League
Akita
#14
L
71-78
71
78
-7
64avg 75
A20/01
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-20
20-27
34-27
15-20
13-17
24-16
10-24
29-17
26-26
20-19
18-26
31-26
23-22
18-24
12-23
19-21
13-21
18-22
12-13
21-23
10-28
15-16
22-27
21-15
21-15
28-21
19-14
5-29
25-16
23-21
22-13
22-14
17-15
24-21
10-19
24-26
25-18
17-20
10-19
19-21
159.2Avg total
77.0Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)81.882.6164.4-0.947%
Season at home (16)78.180.2158.4-2.144%
Season away (14)85.985.4171.3+0.650%
Last 10 (10)77.082.2159.2-5.220%
Last 5 (5)75.877.6153.4-1.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)80.083.4163.4-3.446%
vs Similar ◀ (10)79.783.1162.8-3.440%
vs Weaker (7)88.080.6168.6+7.457%
This opponent (Akita) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +5.6+5.6Q4: -0.6-0.6
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +5.6+5.6Q4: -0.6-0.6
AkitaNagasaki
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AkitaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Osaka
#18
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A17/12
B League
Gunma
#13
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H20/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
38-35
38
35
+3
A23/12
B League
Ibaraki Robots
#22
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A24/12
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H29/12
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H30/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A05/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
26-44
26
44
-18
A06/01
B League
Chiba
#9
L
39-59
39
59
-20
A17/01
B League
Nagasaki
#17
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H20/01
B League
76.8Avg total
36.6Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.338.575.8-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.840.177.9-2.333%-
Last 30 away (15)36.836.873.6+0.053%-
Last 10 (10)36.640.276.8-3.640%-
Last 5 (5)33.442.676.0-9.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)32.640.473.0-7.812%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)36.938.575.4-1.633%-
vs Weaker (10)41.536.978.4+4.680%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Alvark
#2
L
35-47
35
47
-12
H17/12
B League
Ryukyu
#5
W
37-33
37
33
+4
A20/12
B League
Osaka
#18
W
46-45
46
45
+1
A23/12
B League
Osaka
#18
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A24/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
31-43
31
43
-12
H30/12
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
25-44
25
44
-19
H31/12
B League
Shinshu
#23
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H06/01
B League
Shinshu
#23
W
48-37
48
37
+11
H07/01
B League
Kyoto
#21
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H17/01
B League
Akita
#14
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A20/01
B League
80.0Avg total
39.5Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.341.283.5+1.060%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.740.480.1-0.750%-
Last 30 away (14)45.242.287.4+3.071%-
Last 10 (10)39.540.580.0-1.060%-
Last 5 (5)41.038.279.2+2.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)38.841.380.1-2.546%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)44.041.485.4+2.670%-
vs Weaker (7)46.340.987.1+5.471%-
This opponent (Akita) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Akitatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Akita: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.618.3
48.7%
50.9%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.59.2
31.2%
33.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws14.210.3
72.5%
72.0%10.3
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 76.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.819.6
51.9%
50.9%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.78.4
30.3%
33.5%25.2
🏀 Free throws16.911.8
69.8%
72.0%11.8
They take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Akita
WLLLWWWWWL
Nagasaki
LLWLLLLLWL
#14
League position
#17
+6.6
Net rating
-6.4
102.7
Offensive rating
102.4
96.0
Defensive rating
108.8
47.8%
Effective FG%
49.2%
43.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
17.9%
Turnover %
18.0%
36.8%
Off. rebound %
30.4%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.26
31.2%
3-point %
30.3%
73.1%
Assist %
67.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence102.7 · 102.4Defence96.0 · 108.8Shooting47.8% · 49.2%3-point %31.2% · 30.3%Ball care17.9% · 18.0%Off. rebounds36.8% · 30.4%Free throws0.21 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ Akita   ■ Nagasaki
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Akita wins
0
Nagasaki wins
DateGameScore
20/01/24Akita v Nagasaki78-71
Akitalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/24HNagasaki78-71
17/01/24AChiba73-105
06/01/24AHiroshima D.68-82
05/01/24AHiroshima D.74-81
30/12/23HNagoya Fighting Eagles77-47
29/12/23HNagoya Fighting Eagles71-61
24/12/23AIbaraki Robots88-72
23/12/23AIbaraki Robots79-63
20/12/23HGunma84-56
17/12/23AOsaka63-65
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/24AAkita71-78
17/01/24HKyoto75-81
07/01/24HShinshu92-64
06/01/24HShinshu73-79
31/12/23HHiroshima D.68-86
30/12/23HHiroshima D.64-79
24/12/23AOsaka72-90
23/12/23AOsaka95-97
20/12/23ARyukyu76-74
17/12/23HAlvark84-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Akita
B League 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW50%
HomeWWWWW47%
AwayWWLLL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %50%47%53%
Points / game72.974.371.5
Allowed / game74.076.671.3
Point differential-1.1-2.3+0.2
Avg total146.9150.9142.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%20%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)67% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %3%7%0%
Nagasaki
B League 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL47%
HomeLLLWL44%
AwayWWLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %47%44%50%
Points / game81.878.185.9
Allowed / game82.680.285.4
Point differential-0.9-2.1+0.6
Avg total164.4158.4171.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%6%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)80% (5)40% (5)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alvark3026487%82.266.4+15.8
2 NeoPhoenix3026487%90.277.9+12.3
3 Utsunomiya Brex3023777%78.268.5+9.8
4 SeaHorses Mikawa3021970%82.675.6+7.0
5 Ryukyu3021970%79.675.9+3.7
6 Shimane31191261%84.377.6+6.6
7 Chiba30171357%85.283.0+2.2
8 Sun Rockers Shibuya30171357%78.075.8+2.2
9 Saga30171357%76.574.4+2.2
10 Brave Thunders30171357%79.877.7+2.1
11 Diamond Dolphins30171357%80.778.9+1.7
12 Hiroshima D.30151550%77.673.8+3.8
13 Akita30151550%72.974.0-1.1
14 Nagasaki30141647%81.882.6-0.9
15 Nagoya Fighting Eagles30141647%71.774.5-2.8
16 Sendai30131743%79.380.4-1.1
17 Osaka30131743%77.581.9-4.4
18 Gunma30131743%76.480.9-4.5
19 Yokohama30131743%75.981.6-5.7
20 Hokkaido3092130%74.080.4-6.5
21 Kyoto3092130%77.083.8-6.8
22 Shinshu3052517%71.984.5-12.6
23 Toyama3042613%74.085.3-11.3
24 Ibaraki Robots3132810%74.586.1-11.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Akita1628222288
Nagasaki2912201879
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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