PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Alkar vs Zadar Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 05 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 16:00
Scheduled
Position#10
Record1-5
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game84.5
vs
Position#1
Record6-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game91.8
Allowed / game64.8
CroatiaPremijer ligaRound 21· GSD Ivica Glavan-Ico
Other2026-27
Meetings · Alkar v Zadar
05 Mar 2027
ALKA v ZAD
upcoming
04 Apr 2026
ALKA58
ZAD69
09 Mar 2026
ALKA54
ZAD77
23 Mar 2025
ALKA44
ZAD63
15 Dec 2024
ALKA61
ZAD71
17 Mar 2024
ALKA65
ZAD73
20 Dec 2023
ALKA70
ZAD84
06 Mar 2023
ALKA83
ZAD100
20 Dec 2022
ALKA70
ZAD97
31 Jan 2022
ALKA88
ZAD86
27 Jan 2021
ALKA55
ZAD75
22 Jan 2020
ALKA93
ZAD84
23 Mar 2019
ALKA62
ZAD103
26 Apr 2018
ALKA81
ZAD103
29 Dec 2016
ALKA89
ZAD83
02 May 2015
ALKA61
ZAD81
04 May 2014
ALKA61
ZAD81
17 Apr 2013
ALKA97
ZAD104
22 Oct 2011
ALKA64
ZAD74
04 Apr 2011
ALKA52
ZAD69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alkar win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Zadar win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlkarCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
GKK Sibenka
#12
L
88-91
88
91
-3
A01/05
Premijer liga
Dubrovnik
#5
L
70-87
70
87
-17
A09/05
Premijer liga
Cibona
#2
L
78-84
78
84
-6
H27/09
Premijer liga
Zrinjski Mostar
#17
W
92-87 OT
92
87
+5
A30/09
ENBL
Samobor
#11
W
95-91 OT
95
91
+4
A04/10
Premijer liga
Skrljevo
#6
L
73-88
73
88
-15
H10/10
Premijer liga
Spartak Pleven
#5
L
82-93
82
93
-11
A14/10
ENBL
Cedevita Junior
#7
L
78-83
78
83
-5
A18/10
Premijer liga
Split
#3
L
75-76
75
76
-1
H25/10
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#4
L
75-85
75
85
-10
A30/10
Premijer liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-21
20-19
21-22
20-29
15-22
10-21
21-22
24-22
18-23
25-23
10-23
25-15
13-18
18-21
21-22
24-15
21-17
16-22
26-16
21-29
23-22
23-21
18-26
9-19
20-22
26-32
16-16
20-23
21-20
26-28
16-17
15-18
24-20
23-16
16-21
12-19
17-26
16-20
20-19
22-20
167.1Avg total
80.6Scored
86.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)79.084.5163.5-5.517%
Season at home (3)75.382.7158.0-7.30%
Season away (3)82.786.3169.0-3.733%
Last 10 (10)80.686.5167.1-5.920%
Last 5 (5)76.685.0161.6-8.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)71.081.0152.0-10.019%
vs Similar (6)80.382.2162.5-1.850%
vs Weaker (3)82.382.0164.3+0.367%
This opponent (Zadar) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ZadarCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Samobor
#11
W
81-59
81
59
+22
H27/09
Premijer liga
Skrljevo
#6
W
107-69
107
69
+38
A02/10
Premijer liga
Studentski Centar
#20
W
79-65
79
65
+14
H05/10
ABA League
Mega Basket
#14
L
82-88
82
88
-6
A11/10
ABA League
Cedevita Junior
#7
W
87-56
87
56
+31
A12/10
Premijer liga
Vienna Basket
#18
L
63-78
63
78
-15
A16/10
ABA League
Split
#3
W
84-73
84
73
+11
A18/10
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#4
W
87-61
87
61
+26
H23/10
Premijer liga
Perspektiva Ilirija
#16
W
95-70
95
70
+25
H25/10
ABA League
Dubrovnik
#8
W
105-71
105
71
+34
A30/10
Premijer liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-14
13-20
26-15
18-10
25-17
31-19
24-19
27-14
18-24
27-15
18-10
16-16
20-19
16-23
24-18
22-28
27-10
21-12
21-18
18-16
21-22
13-18
14-21
15-17
16-24
18-19
23-14
27-16
26-17
21-15
19-17
21-12
26-16
14-19
27-12
28-23
14-16
30-15
29-18
32-22
156.0Avg total
87.0Scored
69.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)91.864.8156.7+27.0100%
Season at home (2)84.060.0144.0+24.0100%
Season away (4)95.867.2163.0+28.5100%
Last 10 (10)87.069.0156.0+18.080%
Last 5 (5)86.870.6157.4+16.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)69.572.2141.8-2.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)85.569.8155.3+15.777%
This opponent (Alkar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +6.3+6.3Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: +5.0+5.0
AlkarZadar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlkarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
GKK Sibenka
#12
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A01/05
Premijer liga
Dubrovnik
#5
L
25-43
25
43
-18
A09/05
Premijer liga
Cibona
#2
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H27/09
Premijer liga
Zrinjski Mostar
#17
L
31-39
31
39
-8
A30/09
ENBL
Samobor
#11
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A04/10
Premijer liga
Skrljevo
#6
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H10/10
Premijer liga
Spartak Pleven
#5
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A14/10
ENBL
Cedevita Junior
#7
L
47-48
47
48
-1
A18/10
Premijer liga
Split
#3
W
47-36
47
36
+11
H25/10
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#4
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A30/10
Premijer liga
83.6Avg total
40.2Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.940.777.6-3.930%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.138.175.2-0.943%-
Last 30 away (16)36.643.179.7-6.419%-
Last 10 (10)40.243.483.6-3.230%-
Last 5 (5)43.845.489.2-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)35.240.575.8-5.319%-
vs Similar (6)39.540.580.0-1.067%-
vs Weaker (3)43.042.785.7+0.333%-
This opponent (Zadar) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ZadarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Samobor
#11
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H27/09
Premijer liga
Skrljevo
#6
W
56-36
56
36
+20
A02/10
Premijer liga
Studentski Centar
#20
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H05/10
ABA League
Mega Basket
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A11/10
ABA League
Cedevita Junior
#7
W
48-22
48
22
+26
A12/10
Premijer liga
Vienna Basket
#18
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A16/10
ABA League
Split
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A18/10
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#4
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H23/10
Premijer liga
Perspektiva Ilirija
#16
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H25/10
ABA League
Dubrovnik
#8
W
44-31
44
31
+13
A30/10
Premijer liga
77.5Avg total
42.1Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.035.276.2+5.873%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.434.077.4+9.493%-
Last 30 away (16)38.936.275.2+2.756%-
Last 10 (10)42.135.477.5+6.770%-
Last 5 (5)39.836.276.0+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)34.837.272.0-2.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)42.034.976.9+7.177%-
This opponent (Alkar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alkartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alkar: 80.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.621.1
56.1%
54.8%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.48.4
31.8%
34.0%25.2
🏀 Free throws19.413.0
67.0%
71.8%13.0
They take 64.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zadartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zadar: 86.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.621.4
58.5%
54.8%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.310.5
34.7%
34.0%31.5
🏀 Free throws16.912.5
74.0%
71.8%12.5
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alkar
LLLLLWWLLL
Zadar
WWWWLWLWWW
#10
League position
#1
-6.7
Net rating
+21.3
93.5
Offensive rating
102.8
100.3
Defensive rating
81.5
52.7%
Effective FG%
55.5%
55.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.1%
15.9%
Turnover %
13.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.25
31.8%
3-point %
34.7%
58.3%
Assist %
60.2%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence93.5 · 102.8Defence100.3 · 81.5Shooting52.7% · 55.5%3-point %31.8% · 34.7%Ball care15.9% · 13.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)20% · 80%
■ Alkar   ■ Zadar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Alkar wins
10
Zadar wins
DateGameScore
04/04/26Alkar v Zadar58-69
09/03/26Alkar v Zadar54-77
14/12/25Zadar v Alkar83-49
23/03/25Alkar v Zadar44-63
15/12/24Alkar v Zadar61-71
28/09/24Zadar v Alkar94-47
17/03/24Alkar v Zadar65-73
20/12/23Alkar v Zadar70-84
11/10/23Zadar v Alkar106-73
06/03/23Alkar v Zadar83-100
Alkarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26ADinamo Zagreb75-85
25/10/26HSplit75-76
18/10/26ACedevita Junior78-83
14/10/26ASpartak Pleven82-93
10/10/26HSkrljevo73-88
04/10/26ASamobor95-91 OT
30/09/26AZrinjski Mostar92-87 OT
27/09/26HCibona78-84
09/05/26ADubrovnik70-87
01/05/26AGKK Sibenka88-91
Zadarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26ADubrovnik105-71
25/10/26HPerspektiva Ilirija95-70
23/10/26HDinamo Zagreb87-61
18/10/26ASplit84-73
16/10/26AVienna Basket63-78
12/10/26ACedevita Junior87-56
11/10/26AMega Basket82-88
05/10/26HStudentski Centar79-65
02/10/26ASkrljevo107-69
27/09/26HSamobor81-59

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alkar
Premijer liga 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL17%
HomeLLL0%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %17%0%33%
Points / game79.075.382.7
Allowed / game84.582.786.3
Point differential-5.5-7.3-3.7
Avg total163.5158.0169.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %17%0%33%
Zadar
Premijer liga 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game91.884.095.8
Allowed / game64.860.067.2
Point differential+27.0+24.0+28.5
Avg total156.7144.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zadar660100%91.864.8+27.0
2 Cibona550100%90.276.4+13.8
3 Split54180%82.072.0+10.0
4 Dinamo Zagreb64267%76.781.2-4.5
5 Kvarner53260%89.479.4+10.0
6 Skrljevo53260%83.285.2-2.0
7 Cedevita Junior53260%78.288.0-9.8
8 Dubrovnik62433%79.888.3-8.5
9 Zabok51420%78.286.8-8.6
10 Alkar61517%79.084.5-5.5
11 Samobor5050%72.883.4-10.6
12 Dubrava5050%72.085.0-13.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.