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Almaty vs Kaspiy Aktau Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 17 May 2026
Tip-off: 13:00
Final 80-101
18-27 22-19 17-31 23-24
Position#3
Record19-18
FormWWLLW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game78.4
vs
Position#2
Record20-15
FormLWWWL
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game76.3
KazakhstanNational LeagueNational League - Semi-finals
Other2025-26
Meetings · Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau
17 May 2026
ALMA80
KASP101
16 May 2026
ALMA77
KASP69
22 Feb 2026
ALMA71
KASP83
21 Feb 2026
ALMA79
KASP95
23 Nov 2025
ALMA75
KASP69
22 Nov 2025
ALMA67
KASP70
15 Apr 2025
ALMA80
KASP74
07 Apr 2025
ALMA89
KASP74
27 Oct 2024
ALMA70
KASP68
26 Oct 2024
ALMA76
KASP58
12 Jan 2024
ALMA91
KASP79
11 Jan 2024
ALMA81
KASP84
06 Nov 2020
ALMA72
KASP73
05 Nov 2020
ALMA83
KASP64
02 Mar 2019
ALMA100
KASP78
01 Mar 2019
ALMA89
KASP76
21 Oct 2017
ALMA63
KASP72
16 Jan 2016
ALMA52
KASP63
15 Jan 2016
ALMA66
KASP62
15 Dec 2015
ALMA70
KASP82
09 Feb 2015
ALMA58
KASP75
08 Feb 2015
ALMA81
KASP89
07 Nov 2014
ALMA88
KASP77
25 Feb 2014
ALMA66
KASP81
24 Feb 2014
ALMA69
KASP112
30 Oct 2013
ALMA70
KASP97
29 Oct 2013
ALMA59
KASP98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Almaty winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Kaspiy Aktau winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlmatyKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
W
72-69
72
69
+3
A08/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
72-69
72
69
+3
H14/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
74-72
74
72
+2
H15/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
68-82
68
82
-14
H21/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
54-81
54
81
-27
H22/03
National League
Turan
#6
W
95-65
95
65
+30
H07/05
National League
Turan
#6
W
89-56
89
56
+33
A08/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
73-88
73
88
-15
A11/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
70-81
70
81
-11
A12/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
W
77-69
77
69
+8
H16/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-6
23-24
18-20
19-19
29-22
17-15
17-14
9-18
22-12
23-18
14-18
15-24
17-16
15-18
15-24
21-24
17-18
14-24
15-21
8-18
22-12
24-17
19-10
30-26
22-10
20-14
18-17
29-15
22-25
12-13
19-29
20-21
19-24
17-12
20-22
14-23
15-19
23-20
20-15
19-15
147.6Avg total
74.4Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)81.578.4160.0+3.151%
Season at home (18)80.577.3157.8+3.250%
Season away (19)82.579.5162.1+3.053%
Last 10 (10)74.473.2147.6+1.260%
Last 5 (5)80.871.8152.6+9.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)71.383.9155.1-12.629%
vs Similar ◀ (15)75.181.7156.7-6.627%
vs Weaker (8)97.467.8165.1+29.688%
This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy AktauKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H03/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
105-66
105
66
+39
H19/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
99-75
99
75
+24
H20/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
79-86
79
86
-7
A29/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
86-81
86
81
+5
A30/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
67-91
67
91
-24
A10/04
National League
Astana
#1
W
80-75 OT
80
75
+5
A11/04
National League
Almaty
#3
W
88-73
88
73
+15
H11/05
National League
Almaty
#3
W
81-70
81
70
+11
H12/05
National League
Almaty
#3
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A16/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-12
14-22
20-10
17-24
37-14
31-15
15-18
22-19
20-29
37-16
26-14
16-16
21-16
19-20
20-29
19-21
29-16
18-16
22-21
17-28
13-24
23-23
14-21
17-23
16-14
17-22
22-13
12-18
25-22
13-12
29-19
21-20
24-19
12-17
22-20
23-14
19-15
20-23
15-20
15-19
158.9Avg total
82.7Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)81.276.3157.5+4.957%
Season at home (18)81.777.2158.8+4.550%
Season away (17)80.775.3156.0+5.465%
Last 10 (10)82.776.2158.9+6.570%
Last 5 (5)77.077.2154.2-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)68.781.1149.9-12.429%
vs Similar ◀ (9)82.373.9156.2+8.478%
vs Weaker (14)89.673.1162.8+16.579%
This opponent (Almaty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: +4.5+4.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: -2.3-2.3
AlmatyKaspiy Aktau
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlmatyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A08/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H14/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H15/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H21/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
31-42
31
42
-11
H22/03
National League
Turan
#6
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H07/05
National League
Turan
#6
W
42-24
42
24
+18
A08/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A11/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A12/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H16/05
National League
72.4Avg total
38.5Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.739.580.3+1.240%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.739.980.7+0.847%-
Last 30 away (15)40.739.179.9+1.633%-
Last 10 (10)38.533.972.4+4.650%-
Last 5 (5)39.233.272.4+6.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)35.741.377.0-5.614%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)38.741.980.6-3.133%-
vs Weaker (8)48.933.682.5+15.275%-
This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Kaspiy AktauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana
#1
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H03/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
68-29
68
29
+39
H19/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
57-45
57
45
+12
H20/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A29/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A30/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A10/04
National League
Astana
#1
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A11/04
National League
Almaty
#3
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H11/05
National League
Almaty
#3
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H12/05
National League
Almaty
#3
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A16/05
National League
79.7Avg total
43.0Scored
36.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.138.082.0+6.167%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.237.582.7+7.771%-
Last 30 away (16)43.138.481.4+4.762%-
Last 10 (10)43.036.779.7+6.370%-
Last 5 (5)36.438.274.6-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.040.474.4-6.429%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.136.379.4+6.867%-
vs Weaker (14)49.737.887.5+11.986%-
This opponent (Almaty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Almatytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Almaty: 74.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.520.8
50.1%
50.5%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.46.5
26.6%
30.4%19.5
🏀 Free throws20.113.3
66.2%
69.6%13.3
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kaspiy Aktautheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kaspiy Aktau: 82.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.620.8
48.8%
50.5%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.48.5
29.9%
30.4%25.5
🏀 Free throws21.815.6
71.6%
69.6%15.6
They take 71.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Almaty
WLLWWLLWWW
Kaspiy Aktau
LWWWLWLWWW
#3
League position
#2
+1.6
Net rating
+8.4
98.5
Offensive rating
105.2
96.9
Defensive rating
96.8
46.4%
Effective FG%
47.3%
44.3%
Opp. effective FG%
47.2%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.31
26.6%
3-point %
29.9%
66.7%
Assist %
85.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence98.5 · 105.2Defence96.9 · 96.8Shooting46.4% · 47.3%3-point %26.6% · 29.9%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Almaty   ■ Kaspiy Aktau
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Almaty wins
7
Kaspiy Aktau wins
DateGameScore
16/05/26Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau77-69
12/05/26Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty81-70
11/05/26Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty88-73
22/02/26Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau71-83
21/02/26Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau79-95
30/01/26Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty95-75
29/01/26Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty91-78
23/11/25Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau75-69
22/11/25Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau67-70
26/10/25Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty72-78
Almatylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/05/26HKaspiy Aktau77-69
12/05/26AKaspiy Aktau70-81
11/05/26AKaspiy Aktau73-88
08/05/26ATuran89-56
07/05/26HTuran95-65
22/03/26HAstana54-81
21/03/26HAstana68-82
15/03/26HAtyrau74-72
14/03/26HAtyrau72-69
08/03/26AAstana72-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/05/26AAlmaty69-77
12/05/26HAlmaty81-70
11/05/26HAlmaty88-73
11/04/26AAstana80-75 OT
10/04/26AAstana67-91
30/03/26AAtyrau86-81
29/03/26AAtyrau79-86
20/03/26HTobol Kostanay99-75
19/03/26HTobol Kostanay105-66
03/03/26HAstana73-68

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Almaty
National League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW51%
HomeWLLWW50%
AwayWWWLL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371819
Win %51%50%53%
Points / game81.580.582.5
Allowed / game78.477.379.5
Point differential+3.1+3.2+3.0
Avg total160.0157.8162.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%28%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %3%0%5%
Kaspiy Aktau
National League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL57%
HomeWWWWW50%
AwayLWLWL65%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351817
Win %57%50%65%
Points / game81.281.780.7
Allowed / game76.377.275.3
Point differential+4.9+4.5+5.4
Avg total157.5158.8156.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%44%41%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)50% (2)100% (3)
Overtime %3%0%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astana3630683%87.667.8+19.9
2 Kaspiy Aktau35201557%81.276.3+4.9
3 Almaty37191851%81.578.4+3.1
4 Atyrau38191950%81.881.4+0.4
5 Tobol Kostanay343319%68.296.4-28.1
6 Turan2020%60.592.0-31.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Almaty1822172380
Kaspiy Aktau27193124101
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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