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Kaspiy Aktau vs Almaty Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 12 May 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 81-70
24-19 12-17 22-20 23-14
Position#2
Record19-14
FormLWLWW
Points / game81.6
Allowed / game76.4
vs
Position#3
Record18-17
FormLLWWL
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game78.6
KazakhstanNational LeagueNational League - Semi-finals
Other2025-26
Meetings · Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty
12 May 2026
KASP81
ALMA70
11 May 2026
KASP88
ALMA73
30 Jan 2026
KASP95
ALMA75
29 Jan 2026
KASP91
ALMA78
26 Oct 2025
KASP72
ALMA78
25 Oct 2025
KASP71
ALMA80
11 Apr 2025
KASP84
ALMA80
06 Jan 2025
KASP91
ALMA68
05 Jan 2025
KASP72
ALMA74
07 Nov 2023
KASP84
ALMA82
06 Nov 2023
KASP75
ALMA86
27 Mar 2021
KASP87
ALMA52
26 Mar 2021
KASP89
ALMA85
31 Oct 2020
KASP65
ALMA71
30 Oct 2020
KASP62
ALMA68
18 Mar 2019
KASP94
ALMA89
17 Mar 2019
KASP84
ALMA94
18 Nov 2018
KASP56
ALMA78
17 Nov 2018
KASP72
ALMA80
17 Nov 2017
KASP88
ALMA64
21 Feb 2016
KASP81
ALMA70
20 Feb 2016
KASP78
ALMA70
02 Dec 2014
KASP73
ALMA77
01 Dec 2014
KASP49
ALMA63
06 Nov 2014
KASP66
ALMA89
27 Nov 2013
KASP96
ALMA72
26 Nov 2013
KASP108
ALMA79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kaspiy Aktau winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Almaty winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Kaspiy AktauKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
W
83-71
83
71
+12
A22/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
53-75
53
75
-22
H02/03
National League
Astana
#1
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H03/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
105-66
105
66
+39
H19/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
99-75
99
75
+24
H20/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
L
79-86
79
86
-7
A29/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
86-81
86
81
+5
A30/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
67-91
67
91
-24
A10/04
National League
Astana
#1
W
80-75 OT
80
75
+5
A11/04
National League
Almaty
#3
W
88-73
88
73
+15
H11/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-17
28-14
14-15
17-25
17-21
12-25
14-19
10-10
22-12
14-22
20-10
17-24
37-14
31-15
15-18
22-19
20-29
37-16
26-14
16-16
21-16
19-20
20-29
19-21
29-16
18-16
22-21
17-28
13-24
23-23
14-21
17-23
16-14
17-22
22-13
12-18
25-22
13-12
29-19
21-20
157.4Avg total
81.3Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)81.676.4158.0+5.258%
Season at home (17)81.777.6159.3+4.147%
Season away (16)81.475.2156.6+6.269%
Last 10 (10)81.376.1157.4+5.270%
Last 5 (5)80.081.2161.2-1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)68.681.5150.1-12.925%
vs Similar ◀ (8)82.974.5157.4+8.475%
vs Weaker (14)89.673.1162.8+16.579%
This opponent (Almaty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlmatyKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
73-79
73
79
-6
A28/02
National League
Astana
#1
W
86-77
86
77
+9
A07/03
National League
Astana
#1
W
72-69
72
69
+3
A08/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
72-69
72
69
+3
H14/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
74-72
74
72
+2
H15/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
68-82
68
82
-14
H21/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
54-81
54
81
-27
H22/03
National League
Turan
#6
W
95-65
95
65
+30
H07/05
National League
Turan
#6
W
89-56
89
56
+33
A08/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
73-88
73
88
-15
A11/05
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-18
17-24
20-23
15-14
24-23
20-21
19-18
23-15
12-6
23-24
18-20
19-19
29-22
17-15
17-14
9-18
22-12
23-18
14-18
15-24
17-16
15-18
15-24
21-24
17-18
14-24
15-21
8-18
22-12
24-17
19-10
30-26
22-10
20-14
18-17
29-15
22-25
12-13
19-29
20-21
149.4Avg total
75.6Scored
73.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)82.078.6160.6+3.451%
Season at home (17)80.777.8158.5+2.947%
Season away (18)83.279.4162.7+3.856%
Last 10 (10)75.673.8149.4+1.860%
Last 5 (5)75.874.4150.2+1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)69.084.9153.9-15.925%
vs Similar ◀ (14)76.382.7159.0-6.429%
vs Weaker (8)97.467.8165.1+29.688%
This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.9+3.9Q1: +4.6+4.6Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: -0.5-0.5
Kaspiy AktauAlmaty
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Kaspiy AktauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Almaty
#3
W
52-31
52
31
+21
A22/02
National League
Astana
#1
L
29-46
29
46
-17
H02/03
National League
Astana
#1
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H03/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
68-29
68
29
+39
H19/03
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#5
W
57-45
57
45
+12
H20/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A29/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A30/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A10/04
National League
Astana
#1
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A11/04
National League
Almaty
#3
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H11/05
National League
80.6Avg total
43.6Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.938.282.1+5.767%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.437.482.8+8.179%-
Last 30 away (16)42.639.081.6+3.656%-
Last 10 (10)43.637.080.6+6.670%-
Last 5 (5)38.837.075.8+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)33.641.475.0-7.825%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)44.035.979.9+8.175%-
vs Weaker (14)49.737.887.5+11.986%-
This opponent (Almaty) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlmatyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tobol Kostanay
#5
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A28/02
National League
Astana
#1
D
44-44
44
44
+0
A07/03
National League
Astana
#1
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A08/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H14/03
National League
Atyrau
#4
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H15/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H21/03
National League
Astana
#1
L
31-42
31
42
-11
H22/03
National League
Turan
#6
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H07/05
National League
Turan
#6
W
42-24
42
24
+18
A08/05
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#2
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A11/05
National League
74.3Avg total
39.3Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.839.980.8+0.943%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.040.680.6-0.647%-
Last 30 away (15)41.739.380.9+2.440%-
Last 10 (10)39.335.074.3+4.350%-
Last 5 (5)37.033.470.4+3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)34.642.276.9-7.612%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.842.282.0-2.443%-
vs Weaker (8)48.933.682.5+15.275%-
This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Kaspiy Aktautheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kaspiy Aktau: 81.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.020.6
49.0%
50.5%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.48.2
28.9%
30.4%24.6
🏀 Free throws21.615.5
71.8%
69.6%15.5
They take 70.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Almatytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Almaty: 75.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.6 points a game
49%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.420.8
50.2%
50.5%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.06.7
25.8%
30.4%20.1
🏀 Free throws20.813.9
66.8%
69.6%13.9
They take 67.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Kaspiy Aktau
WWLWLWWWLW
Almaty
LWWLLWWWWL
#2
League position
#3
+6.8
Net rating
+2.4
103.6
Offensive rating
99.6
96.9
Defensive rating
97.2
46.7%
Effective FG%
45.8%
46.3%
Opp. effective FG%
45.8%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.31
28.9%
3-point %
25.8%
85.1%
Assist %
60.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.6 · 99.6Defence96.9 · 97.2Shooting46.7% · 45.8%3-point %28.9% · 25.8%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Kaspiy Aktau   ■ Almaty
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Kaspiy Aktau wins
4
Almaty wins
DateGameScore
11/05/26Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty88-73
22/02/26Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau71-83
21/02/26Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau79-95
30/01/26Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty95-75
29/01/26Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty91-78
23/11/25Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau75-69
22/11/25Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau67-70
26/10/25Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty72-78
25/10/25Kaspiy Aktau v Almaty71-80
15/04/25Almaty v Kaspiy Aktau80-74
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/05/26HAlmaty88-73
11/04/26AAstana80-75 OT
10/04/26AAstana67-91
30/03/26AAtyrau86-81
29/03/26AAtyrau79-86
20/03/26HTobol Kostanay99-75
19/03/26HTobol Kostanay105-66
03/03/26HAstana73-68
02/03/26HAstana53-75
22/02/26AAlmaty83-71
Almatylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/05/26AKaspiy Aktau73-88
08/05/26ATuran89-56
07/05/26HTuran95-65
22/03/26HAstana54-81
21/03/26HAstana68-82
15/03/26HAtyrau74-72
14/03/26HAtyrau72-69
08/03/26AAstana72-69
07/03/26AAstana86-77
28/02/26ATobol Kostanay73-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kaspiy Aktau
National League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW58%
HomeLWWWW47%
AwayWLWLW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %58%47%69%
Points / game81.681.781.4
Allowed / game76.477.675.2
Point differential+5.2+4.1+6.2
Avg total158.0159.3156.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%41%44%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)50% (2)100% (3)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Almaty
National League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL51%
HomeWWLLW47%
AwayLWWWL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351718
Win %51%47%56%
Points / game82.080.783.2
Allowed / game78.677.879.4
Point differential+3.4+2.9+3.8
Avg total160.6158.5162.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%29%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)50% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %3%0%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Astana3429585%87.967.0+20.9
2 Kaspiy Aktau33191458%81.676.4+5.2
3 Almaty35181751%82.078.6+3.4
4 Atyrau36181850%81.881.3+0.6
5 Tobol Kostanay343319%68.296.4-28.1
6 Turan2020%60.592.0-31.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Kaspiy Aktau2412222381
Almaty1917201470
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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