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Almaty vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 12:00
Final 90-70
20-18 22-17 21-15 27-20
Position#4
Record8-5
FormLWWWL
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game77.4
Almaty 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Position#8
Record3-15
FormLLLLL
Points / game69.6
Allowed / game83.1
KazakhstanNational League· SC Champ
Other2024-25
Meetings · Almaty v Pavlodar
12 Jan 2025
ALMA102
PAVL89
11 Jan 2025
ALMA90
PAVL70
31 Oct 2023
ALMA82
PAVL71
30 Oct 2023
ALMA87
PAVL66
24 Jan 2018
ALMA80
PAVL49
16 Nov 2015
ALMA90
PAVL49
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Almaty winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlmatyKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlmaty
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#8
W
82-69
82
69
+13
81avg 81
A09/10
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
76-58
76
58
+18
75avg 81
H26/10
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
70-68
70
68
+2
64avg 81
H27/10
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
60-83
60
83
-23
50avg 81
H06/11
National League
Atyrau
#5
L
78-80
78
80
-2
76avg 81
A01/12
National League
Atyrau
#5
L
85-105
85
105
-20
82avg 81
A02/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
W
85-72
85
72
+13
81avg 81
H14/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
W
96-77
96
77
+19
92avg 81
H15/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
74-72
74
72
+2
64avg 81
A05/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
68-91
68
91
-23
55avg 81
A06/01
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-15
17-17
28-16
18-21
25-10
17-16
20-11
14-21
13-21
18-12
25-14
14-21
18-23
13-21
17-21
12-18
17-20
24-19
20-26
17-15
30-25
21-20
11-30
23-30
22-19
23-8
11-13
29-32
28-20
25-17
17-23
26-17
16-24
18-15
19-17
21-16
17-22
16-29
18-20
17-20
154.9Avg total
77.4Scored
77.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)79.077.4156.4+1.662%
Season at home (5)77.471.6149.0+5.880%
Season away (8)80.081.0161.0-1.050%
Last 10 (10)77.477.5154.9-0.160%
Last 5 (5)81.683.4165.0-1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)80.193.1173.3-13.014%
vs Similar (10)79.678.6158.2+1.060%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)93.077.8170.8+15.283%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPavlodar
Date
Competition
Astana 2
#3
L
66-89
66
89
-23
53avg 61
H01/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
62-71
62
71
-9
49avg 61
H02/12
National League
Aktobe
#7
W
93-72
93
72
+21
98avg 61
A08/12
National League
Aktobe
#7
W
67-63
67
63
+4
66avg 61
A09/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
86-69
86
69
+17
79avg 61
H16/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
62-70
62
70
-8
50avg 61
H17/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
76-94
76
94
-18
62avg 61
H21/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
69-79
69
79
-10
65avg 61
H22/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
69-87
69
87
-18
61avg 61
A05/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
75-89
75
89
-14
76avg 61
A06/01
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-20
19-22
18-30
14-17
14-23
10-13
18-10
20-25
15-14
28-13
25-19
25-26
8-19
16-23
24-14
19-7
14-16
22-13
25-21
25-19
7-22
21-15
17-15
17-18
15-23
17-37
29-17
15-17
22-21
20-17
17-19
10-22
16-19
20-21
6-27
27-20
21-16
21-30
22-23
11-20
150.8Avg total
72.5Scored
78.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)69.683.1152.7-13.617%
Season at home (12)68.185.4153.5-17.38%
Season away (6)72.578.5151.0-6.033%
Last 10 (10)72.578.3150.8-5.830%
Last 5 (5)70.283.8154.0-13.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)68.887.1156.0-18.311%
vs Similar (2)78.586.0164.5-7.50%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Almaty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -4.6-4.6Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -0.8-0.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -4.6-4.6Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -2.0-2.0Q4: -0.8-0.8
AlmatyPavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlmatyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#8
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A09/10
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H26/10
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H27/10
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H06/11
National League
Atyrau
#5
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A01/12
National League
Atyrau
#5
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A02/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H14/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
W
53-37
53
37
+16
H15/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A05/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
33-51
33
51
-18
A06/01
National League
77.0Avg total
39.7Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)43.943.187.0+0.952%-
Last 30 at home (11)44.340.584.7+3.855%-
Last 30 away (18)43.744.788.4-0.950%-
Last 10 (10)39.737.377.0+2.460%-
Last 5 (5)43.239.883.0+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)45.050.995.9-5.923%-
vs Similar (10)40.936.777.6+4.270%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)46.736.783.3+10.083%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Astana 2
#3
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H01/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H02/12
National League
Aktobe
#7
W
43-27
43
27
+16
A08/12
National League
Aktobe
#7
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A09/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
W
36-29
36
29
+7
H16/12
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
28-37
28
37
-9
H17/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
32-60
32
60
-28
H21/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H22/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A05/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A06/01
National League
73.8Avg total
34.1Scored
39.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.944.778.6-10.813%-
Last 30 at home (18)33.346.679.9-13.311%-
Last 30 away (12)34.841.876.6-6.917%-
Last 10 (10)34.139.773.8-5.630%-
Last 5 (5)36.044.280.2-8.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)33.545.278.7-11.811%-
vs Similar (2)40.037.077.0+3.050%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Almaty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Almaty wins
0
Pavlodar wins
DateGameScore
09/10/24Pavlodar v Almaty69-82
08/10/24Pavlodar v Almaty68-89
24/01/24Pavlodar v Almaty69-109
23/01/24Pavlodar v Almaty98-106
31/10/23Almaty v Pavlodar82-71
30/10/23Almaty v Pavlodar87-66
21/02/18Pavlodar v Almaty43-80
24/01/18Almaty v Pavlodar80-49
21/12/17Pavlodar v Almaty43-63
30/10/16Pavlodar v Almaty28-86
Almatylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/25AKaspiy Aktau68-91
05/01/25AKaspiy Aktau74-72
15/12/24HAstana 296-77
14/12/24HAstana 285-72
02/12/24AAtyrau85-105
01/12/24AAtyrau78-80
06/11/24HIrbis Almaty60-83
27/10/24HKaspiy Aktau70-68
26/10/24HKaspiy Aktau76-58
09/10/24APavlodar82-69
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/25ATobol Kostanay75-89
05/01/25ATobol Kostanay69-87
22/12/24HIrbis Almaty69-79
21/12/24HIrbis Almaty76-94
17/12/24HKaspiy Aktau62-70
16/12/24HKaspiy Aktau86-69
09/12/24AAktobe67-63
08/12/24AAktobe93-72
02/12/24HAstana 262-71
01/12/24HAstana 266-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Almaty
National League 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL62%
HomeWWLWW80%
AwayWLLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1358
Win %62%80%50%
Points / game79.077.480.0
Allowed / game77.471.681.0
Point differential+1.6+5.8-1.0
Avg total156.4149.0161.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%60%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (1)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pavlodar
National League 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL17%
HomeLWLLL8%
AwayLWWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18126
Win %17%8%33%
Points / game69.668.172.5
Allowed / game83.185.478.5
Point differential-13.6-17.3-6.0
Avg total152.7153.5151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%8%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tobol Kostanay1412286%86.676.0+10.6
2 Irbis Almaty1310377%79.468.3+11.1
3 Atyrau1410471%82.774.8+7.9
4 Almaty138562%79.077.4+1.6
5 Kaspiy Aktau1881044%73.675.3-1.8
6 Astana 21871139%75.578.8-3.3
7 Aktobe1431121%77.183.6-6.4
8 Pavlodar1831517%69.683.1-13.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Almaty2022212790
Pavlodar1817152070
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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