Tobol Kostanay vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 05 Jan 2025

Tip-off: 12:00

Final 87-69

19-16 21-20 27-6 20-27

Position#2

Record10-2

FormWWWWW

Points / game86.4

Allowed / game76.7

Tobol Kostanay 🏆

Pavlodar

Position#8

Record3-13

FormWWLLL

Points / game69.2

Allowed / game82.5

National League· SEC Kostanay

Other2024-25

Meetings · Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tobol Kostanay winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Pavlodar winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormKostanay

Date

Competition

Pavlodar

107-74

107

+33

103avg 92

A22/10

National League

Pavlodar

111-72

111

+39

114avg 92

A23/10

National League

Astana 2

84-77

82avg 92

A27/10

National League

Astana 2

72-70

no box

A28/10

National League

Aktobe

109-81

109

+28

110avg 92

H05/11

National League

Aktobe

85-82

89avg 92

H06/11

National League

Atyrau

80-78

77avg 92

H14/12

National League

Atyrau

78-76

75avg 92

H15/12

National League

Aktobe

78-70

75avg 92

A23/12

National League

Aktobe

78-73

84avg 92

A24/12

National League

33-24

24-20

21-22

29-8

38-11

31-26

23-21

19-14

26-19

19-26

16-15

23-17

18-17

19-17

21-18

14-18

28-15

23-30

29-23

29-13

21-26

23-16

22-20

19-20

21-20

17-20

21-19

15-17

20-18

23-26

20-15

26-16

16-19

16-20

20-15

16-18

25-18

15-15

22-22

163.5Avg total

88.2Scored

75.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (12)	86.4	76.7	163.1	+9.8	83%
Season at home (6)	84.5	80.7	165.2	+3.8	67%
Season away (6)	88.3	72.7	161.0	+15.7	100%
Last 10 (10)	88.2	75.3	163.5	+12.9	100%
Last 5 (5)	79.8	75.8	155.6	+4.0	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (13)	82.9	84.1	167.0	-1.2	38%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	93.4	77.4	170.8	+16.0	88%

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Pavlodar

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPavlodar

Date

Competition

Atyrau

57-66

-9

57avg 61

H05/11

National League

Atyrau

56-98

-42

50avg 61

H06/11

National League

Astana 2

66-89

-23

53avg 61

H01/12

National League

Astana 2

62-71

-9

49avg 61

H02/12

National League

Aktobe

93-72

+21

98avg 61

A08/12

National League

Aktobe

67-63

66avg 61

A09/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

86-69

+17

79avg 61

H16/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

62-70

-8

50avg 61

H17/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

76-94

-18

62avg 61

H21/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

69-79

-10

65avg 61

H22/12

National League

11-13

14-18

13-20

19-15

9-23

15-25

15-31

17-19

15-20

19-22

18-30

14-17

14-23

10-13

18-10

20-25

15-14

28-13

25-19

25-26

8-19

16-23

24-14

19-7

14-16

22-13

25-21

25-19

7-22

21-15

17-15

17-18

15-23

17-37

29-17

15-17

22-21

20-17

17-19

10-22

146.5Avg total

69.4Scored

77.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (16)	69.2	82.5	151.8	-13.2	19%
Season at home (12)	68.1	85.4	153.5	-17.3	8%
Season away (4)	72.8	73.8	146.5	-1.0	50%
Last 10 (10)	69.4	77.1	146.5	-7.7	30%
Last 5 (5)	72.0	75.0	147.0	-3.0	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	69.8	88.2	158.0	-18.5	11%
vs Similar (2)	78.5	86.0	164.5	-7.5	0%
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Tobol KostanayPavlodar

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.6	20.1	43.7	+3.5	73%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.8	20.4	43.2	+2.4	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	24.2	19.8	44.1	+4.4	75%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.2	18.3	42.5	+5.9	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.8	19.4	39.2	+0.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (13)	22.4	20.2	42.5	+2.2	77%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	24.5	20.1	44.5	+4.4	71%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	16.1	24.0	40.0	-7.9	10%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	15.6	24.2	39.8	-8.6	5%	-
Last 30 away (11)	16.8	23.5	40.4	-6.7	18%	-
Last 10 (10)	13.0	19.4	32.4	-6.4	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	13.2	20.2	33.4	-7.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	15.6	23.9	39.5	-8.3	7%	-
vs Similar (2)	23.0	25.0	48.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.5	21.2	42.7	+0.2	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	23.0	20.6	43.6	+2.4	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	20.1	21.8	41.9	-1.6	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.7	21.0	42.7	+0.7	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.2	18.2	38.4	+2.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (13)	19.2	22.5	41.8	-3.3	23%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	23.2	20.2	43.4	+2.9	65%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.8	21.4	39.3	-3.6	23%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	18.3	23.2	41.4	-4.9	16%	-
Last 30 away (11)	17.1	18.5	35.5	-1.4	36%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.2	19.6	37.8	-1.4	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.2	21.0	40.2	-1.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	17.9	22.1	40.0	-4.2	18%	-
vs Similar (2)	17.0	12.0	29.0	+5.0	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Pavlodar

57-44

+13

A22/10

National League

Pavlodar

69-37

+32

A23/10

National League

Astana 2

45-45

A27/10

National League

Astana 2

37-34

A28/10

National League

Aktobe

51-45

H05/11

National League

Aktobe

44-42

H06/11

National League

Atyrau

38-40

-2

H14/12

National League

Atyrau

35-35

H15/12

National League

Aktobe

42-35

A23/12

National League

Aktobe

41-36

A24/12

National League

85.2Avg total

45.9Scored

39.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	45.0	41.3	86.4	+3.7	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	45.8	41.1	86.9	+4.7	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	44.4	41.6	85.9	+2.8	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	45.9	39.3	85.2	+6.6	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	40.0	37.6	77.6	+2.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (13)	41.6	42.7	84.3	-1.1	23%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	47.6	40.3	87.9	+7.4	76%	-

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Atyrau

25-31

-6

H05/11

National League

Atyrau

24-48

-24

H06/11

National League

Astana 2

34-42

-8

H01/12

National League

Astana 2

24-36

-12

H02/12

National League

Aktobe

43-27

+16

A08/12

National League

Aktobe

24-42

-18

A09/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

36-29

H16/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

28-37

-9

H17/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

32-60

-28

H21/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

42-38

H22/12

National League

70.2Avg total

31.2Scored

39.0Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	33.9	45.4	79.3	-11.5	13%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	33.9	47.4	81.3	-13.5	11%	-
Last 30 away (11)	33.9	42.0	75.9	-8.1	18%	-
Last 10 (10)	31.2	39.0	70.2	-7.8	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	32.4	41.2	73.6	-8.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	33.5	46.0	79.5	-12.5	11%	-
vs Similar (2)	40.0	37.0	77.0	+3.0	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.3	20.3	42.6	+2.0	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	23.5	20.4	43.9	+3.1	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	21.2	20.2	41.4	+1.1	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.7	19.9	40.6	+0.8	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	20.0	39.4	-0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (13)	21.8	20.8	42.5	+1.0	54%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	22.7	19.9	42.6	+2.8	65%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.6	22.9	41.5	-4.3	33%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	19.4	23.4	42.7	-4.0	32%	-
Last 30 away (11)	17.3	22.0	39.3	-4.7	36%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.1	19.6	39.7	+0.5	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.4	17.2	39.6	+5.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	18.9	22.9	41.8	-4.0	32%	-
vs Similar (2)	14.5	22.0	36.5	-7.5	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.5	18.7	40.2	+2.8	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	23.7	20.9	44.6	+2.8	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.6	16.8	36.4	+2.9	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.6	16.1	37.7	+5.5	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.4	18.2	38.6	+2.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (13)	19.5	20.6	40.2	-1.1	46%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	23.1	17.2	40.3	+5.8	71%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.7	19.5	37.3	-1.8	37%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	16.3	19.6	35.9	-3.3	32%	-
Last 30 away (11)	20.2	19.5	39.6	+0.7	45%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.1	18.5	36.6	-0.4	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.2	16.6	33.8	+0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	17.4	19.3	36.7	-1.9	36%	-
vs Similar (2)	22.5	22.5	45.0	+0.0	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	43.8	39.0	82.8	+4.9	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	47.2	41.3	88.5	+5.9	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	40.9	36.9	77.8	+3.9	75%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.3	36.0	78.3	+6.3	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.8	38.2	78.0	+1.6	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (13)	41.3	41.4	82.7	-0.1	62%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)	45.8	37.1	82.9	+8.6	76%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	36.3	42.4	78.7	-6.1	27%	-
Last 30 at home (19)	35.7	42.9	78.6	-7.3	32%	-
Last 30 away (11)	37.5	41.5	78.9	-4.0	18%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.2	38.1	76.3	+0.1	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.6	33.8	73.4	+5.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	36.3	42.2	78.5	-6.0	29%	-
vs Similar (2)	37.0	44.5	81.5	-7.5	0%	-
vs Weaker	no games

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Tobol Kostanay wins

Pavlodar wins

Date	Game	Score
23/10/24	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	72-111
22/10/24	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	74-107
10/01/24	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	111-82
09/01/24	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	101-83
23/10/23	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	71-98
22/10/23	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	68-86
21/11/16	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	95-53
21/03/16	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	43-83
17/02/16	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	43-102
10/12/15	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	57-114

Tobol Kostanaylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
24/12/24	A	Aktobe	78-73
23/12/24	A	Aktobe	78-70
15/12/24	H	Atyrau	78-76
14/12/24	H	Atyrau	80-78
06/11/24	H	Aktobe	85-82
05/11/24	H	Aktobe	109-81
28/10/24	A	Astana 2	72-70
27/10/24	A	Astana 2	84-77
23/10/24	A	Pavlodar	111-72
22/10/24	A	Pavlodar	107-74

Pavlodarlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
22/12/24	H	Irbis Almaty	69-79
21/12/24	H	Irbis Almaty	76-94
17/12/24	H	Kaspiy Aktau	62-70
16/12/24	H	Kaspiy Aktau	86-69
09/12/24	A	Aktobe	67-63
08/12/24	A	Aktobe	93-72
02/12/24	H	Astana 2	62-71
01/12/24	H	Astana 2	66-89
06/11/24	H	Atyrau	56-98
05/11/24	H	Atyrau	57-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tobol Kostanay

National League 2024-25

Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	83%
Home	LWWWW	67%
Away	WWWWW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	12	6	6
Win %	83%	67%	100%
Points / game	86.4	84.5	88.3
Allowed / game	76.7	80.7	72.7
Point differential	+9.8	+3.8	+15.7
Avg total	163.1	165.2	161.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	25%	17%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	83% (6)	75% (4)	100% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Pavlodar

National League 2024-25

Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLLL	19%
Home	LWLLL	8%
Away	LLWW	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	16	12	4
Win %	19%	8%	50%
Points / game	69.2	68.1	72.8
Allowed / game	82.5	85.4	73.8
Point differential	-13.2	-17.3	-1.0
Avg total	151.8	153.5	146.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	12%	8%	25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Tobol Kostanay	12	10	2	83%	86.4	76.7	+9.8
2	Irbis Almaty	11	9	2	82%	79.2	65.1	+14.1
3	Atyrau	14	10	4	71%	82.7	74.8	+7.9
4	Almaty	11	7	4	64%	80.5	76.6	+3.8
5	Kaspiy Aktau	16	7	9	44%	72.6	75.9	-3.3
6	Astana 2	16	6	10	38%	74.2	78.6	-4.4
7	Aktobe	14	3	11	21%	77.1	83.6	-6.4
8	Pavlodar	16	3	13	19%	69.2	82.5	-13.2

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Tobol Kostanay	19	21	27	20	87
Pavlodar	16	20	6	27	69

← all games of the day

Tobol Kostanay vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

Manage Cookies

Strictly Necessary

Functionality Cookies

Performance Cookies

Third Party Marketing/Targeting

A Pro feature