Pavlodar vs Kaspiy Aktau Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 16 Dec 2024

Tip-off: 13:00

Final 86-69

14-16 22-13 25-21 25-19

Position#8

Record2-10

FormLLLWW

Points / game67.9

Allowed / game84.0

Pavlodar 🏆

Kaspiy Aktau

Position#6

Record6-6

FormLLLWW

Points / game74.3

Allowed / game73.4

National League· Scysor No

Other2024-25

Meetings · Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pavlodar winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Kaspiy Aktau winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Pavlodar

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPavlodar

Date

Competition

Tobol Kostanay

74-107

107

-33

71avg 61

H22/10

National League

Tobol Kostanay

72-111

111

-39

55avg 61

H23/10

National League

Atyrau

65-80

-15

58avg 61

A01/11

National League

Atyrau

66-80

-14

61avg 61

A02/11

National League

Atyrau

57-66

-9

57avg 61

H05/11

National League

Atyrau

56-98

-42

50avg 61

H06/11

National League

Astana 2

66-89

-23

53avg 61

H01/12

National League

Astana 2

62-71

-9

49avg 61

H02/12

National League

Aktobe

93-72

+21

98avg 61

A08/12

National League

Aktobe

67-63

66avg 61

A09/12

National League

24-33

20-24

22-21

8-29

11-38

26-31

21-23

14-19

18-30

18-14

19-17

10-19

16-18

16-20

20-26

14-16

11-13

14-18

13-20

19-15

9-23

15-25

15-31

17-19

15-20

19-22

18-30

14-17

14-23

10-13

18-10

20-25

15-14

28-13

25-19

25-26

8-19

16-23

24-14

19-7

151.5Avg total

67.8Scored

83.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (12)	67.9	84.0	151.9	-16.1	17%
Season at home (8)	65.5	89.1	154.6	-23.6	0%
Season away (4)	72.8	73.8	146.5	-1.0	50%
Last 10 (10)	67.8	83.7	151.5	-15.9	20%
Last 5 (5)	68.8	78.6	147.4	-9.8	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	70.3	91.6	161.9	-21.3	7%
vs Similar (2)	78.5	86.0	164.5	-7.5	0%
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Kaspiy Aktau Kazakhstan

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAktau

Date

Competition

Astana 2

82-81

84avg 66

H19/10

National League

Astana 2

71-56

+15

74avg 66

H20/10

National League

Almaty

58-76

-18

45avg 66

A26/10

National League

Almaty

68-70

-2

62avg 66

A27/10

National League

Irbis Almaty

53-65

-12

48avg 66

A30/10

National League

Irbis Almaty

69-74

-5

55avg 66

A31/10

National League

Atyrau

73-85

-12

72avg 66

H11/11

National League

Atyrau

76-78

-2

75avg 66

H12/11

National League

Aktobe

92-71

+21

94avg 66

H03/12

National League

Aktobe

83-70

+13

91avg 66

H04/12

National League

24-18

20-23

10-21

28-19

19-7

15-16

18-17

19-16

10-25

16-17

11-20

21-14

21-13

12-18

14-25

21-14

15-18

8-16

11-18

19-13

16-10

13-14

21-17

19-33

15-17

17-23

15-20

26-25

20-16

15-28

15-24

26-10

22-18

17-10

26-18

27-25

18-20

16-16

24-16

25-18

145.1Avg total

72.5Scored

72.6Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (12)	74.3	73.4	147.8	+0.9	50%
Season at home (6)	79.5	73.5	153.0	+6.0	67%
Season away (6)	69.2	73.3	142.5	-4.2	33%
Last 10 (10)	72.5	72.6	145.1	-0.1	40%
Last 5 (5)	78.6	75.6	154.2	+3.0	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)	69.2	88.5	157.7	-19.3	15%
vs Similar (8)	75.0	75.4	150.4	-0.4	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)	87.5	70.5	158.0	+17.0	100%

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

PavlodarKaspiy Aktau

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	16.6	24.3	40.9	-7.7	7%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	15.9	25.2	41.1	-9.2	0%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.4	23.2	40.6	-5.9	14%	-
Last 10 (10)	14.1	23.1	37.2	-9.0	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	12.2	19.8	32.0	-7.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	16.1	24.2	40.4	-8.1	4%	-
vs Similar (2)	23.0	25.0	48.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.9	21.1	39.0	-3.2	33%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.1	19.9	39.0	-0.9	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	16.9	22.1	38.9	-5.2	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.0	16.2	34.2	+1.8	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.2	16.2	34.4	+2.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)	16.9	22.6	39.5	-5.7	20%	-
vs Similar (8)	19.9	17.8	37.6	+2.1	62%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)	20.0	19.0	39.0	+1.0	50%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.1	22.3	40.4	-4.2	17%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.2	23.6	41.9	-5.4	6%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.9	20.9	38.8	-2.9	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.2	20.3	38.5	-2.1	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.6	19.2	36.8	-1.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	18.2	23.1	41.2	-4.9	11%	-
vs Similar (2)	17.0	12.0	29.0	+5.0	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	15.5	21.2	36.8	-5.7	13%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	15.7	22.1	37.9	-6.4	7%	-
Last 30 away (16)	15.4	20.4	35.8	-5.1	19%	-
Last 10 (10)	14.9	18.1	33.0	-3.2	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.6	18.2	33.8	-2.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)	15.7	22.6	38.3	-6.9	15%	-
vs Similar (8)	14.9	19.9	34.8	-5.0	0%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)	16.5	13.0	29.5	+3.5	50%	-

PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Tobol Kostanay

44-57

-13

H22/10

National League

Tobol Kostanay

37-69

-32

H23/10

National League

Atyrau

36-44

-8

A01/11

National League

Atyrau

32-38

-6

A02/11

National League

Atyrau

25-31

-6

H05/11

National League

Atyrau

24-48

-24

H06/11

National League

Astana 2

34-42

-8

H01/12

National League

Astana 2

24-36

-12

H02/12

National League

Aktobe

43-27

+16

A08/12

National League

Aktobe

24-42

-18

A09/12

National League

75.7Avg total

32.3Scored

43.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	34.7	46.6	81.3	-11.9	7%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	34.2	48.8	83.0	-14.6	0%	-
Last 30 away (14)	35.3	44.1	79.4	-8.8	14%	-
Last 10 (10)	32.3	43.4	75.7	-11.1	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	29.8	39.0	68.8	-9.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	34.3	47.3	81.6	-13.0	4%	-
vs Similar (2)	40.0	37.0	77.0	+3.0	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Kaspiy AktauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Astana 2

44-41

H19/10

National League

Astana 2

34-23

+11

H20/10

National League

Almaty

26-42

-16

A26/10

National League

Almaty

33-31

A27/10

National League

Irbis Almaty

23-34

-11

A30/10

National League

Irbis Almaty

29-24

A31/10

National League

Atyrau

32-40

-8

H11/11

National League

Atyrau

35-44

-9

H12/11

National League

Aktobe

39-28

+11

H03/12

National League

Aktobe

34-36

-2

H04/12

National League

67.2Avg total

32.9Scored

34.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	33.4	42.3	75.7	-8.9	20%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	34.8	42.1	76.9	-7.3	29%	-
Last 30 away (16)	32.2	42.5	74.8	-10.2	12%	-
Last 10 (10)	32.9	34.3	67.2	-1.4	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	33.8	34.4	68.2	-0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)	32.6	45.2	77.8	-12.6	5%	-
vs Similar (8)	34.8	37.6	72.4	-2.9	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)	36.5	32.0	68.5	+4.5	50%	-

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.0	24.0	42.1	-6.0	27%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.2	25.2	43.5	-7.0	19%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.8	22.6	40.4	-4.9	36%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.5	21.1	40.6	-1.6	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.0	20.8	40.8	-0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	18.3	24.2	42.5	-5.9	25%	-
vs Similar (2)	14.5	22.0	36.5	-7.5	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.2	20.4	38.5	-2.2	33%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	20.0	20.4	40.4	-0.4	36%	-
Last 30 away (16)	16.6	20.4	36.9	-3.8	31%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.5	19.6	36.1	-3.1	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.2	19.0	39.2	+1.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)	18.4	21.1	39.5	-2.7	30%	-
vs Similar (8)	15.9	19.5	35.4	-3.6	25%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)	25.0	17.0	42.0	+8.0	100%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.0	20.3	38.3	-2.3	37%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	16.6	20.2	36.8	-3.6	31%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.6	20.4	40.1	-0.8	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.0	19.2	35.2	-3.2	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.0	18.8	37.8	+0.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	17.7	20.1	37.9	-2.4	36%	-
vs Similar (2)	22.5	22.5	45.0	+0.0	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.0	21.0	41.1	-1.0	57%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.4	20.5	41.9	+0.9	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.8	21.5	40.3	-2.7	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.1	18.7	41.8	+4.4	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	24.6	22.2	46.8	+2.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)	18.1	22.2	40.4	-4.1	40%	-
vs Similar (8)	23.2	17.9	41.1	+5.4	88%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)	26.0	21.5	47.5	+4.5	100%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	36.1	44.3	80.4	-8.3	17%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	34.9	45.4	80.3	-10.6	19%	-
Last 30 away (14)	37.4	43.1	80.5	-5.6	14%	-
Last 10 (10)	35.5	40.3	75.8	-4.8	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.0	39.6	78.6	-0.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	36.0	44.3	80.3	-8.3	18%	-
vs Similar (2)	37.0	44.5	81.5	-7.5	0%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.2	41.4	79.6	-3.2	33%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	41.4	40.9	82.3	+0.6	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	35.4	41.9	77.2	-6.5	25%	-
Last 10 (10)	39.6	38.3	77.9	+1.3	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.8	41.2	86.0	+3.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)	36.5	43.3	79.8	-6.8	20%	-
vs Similar (8)	39.1	37.4	76.5	+1.8	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)	51.0	38.5	89.5	+12.5	100%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Pavlodar wins

Kaspiy Aktau wins

Date	Game	Score
08/02/24	Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar	94-88 OT
07/02/24	Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar	78-69
19/11/23	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	77-85
18/11/23	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	74-96
10/04/23	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	60-61
19/11/22	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	70-47
24/10/22	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	77-73
01/12/17	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	64-81
30/11/17	Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar	79-48
29/11/17	Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar	72-47

Pavlodarlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
09/12/24	A	Aktobe	67-63
08/12/24	A	Aktobe	93-72
02/12/24	H	Astana 2	62-71
01/12/24	H	Astana 2	66-89
06/11/24	H	Atyrau	56-98
05/11/24	H	Atyrau	57-66
02/11/24	A	Atyrau	66-80
01/11/24	A	Atyrau	65-80
23/10/24	H	Tobol Kostanay	72-111
22/10/24	H	Tobol Kostanay	74-107

Kaspiy Aktaulast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/12/24	H	Aktobe	83-70
03/12/24	H	Aktobe	92-71
12/11/24	H	Atyrau	76-78
11/11/24	H	Atyrau	73-85
31/10/24	A	Irbis Almaty	69-74
30/10/24	A	Irbis Almaty	53-65
27/10/24	A	Almaty	68-70
26/10/24	A	Almaty	58-76
20/10/24	H	Astana 2	71-56
19/10/24	H	Astana 2	82-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pavlodar

National League 2024-25

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLWW	17%
Home	LLLLL	0%
Away	LLWW	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	12	8	4
Win %	17%	0%	50%
Points / game	67.9	65.5	72.8
Allowed / game	84.0	89.1	73.8
Point differential	-16.1	-23.6	-1.0
Avg total	151.9	154.6	146.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	8%	0%	25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Kaspiy Aktau

National League 2024-25

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLWW	50%
Home	WLLWW	67%
Away	WLLLL	33%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	12	6	6
Win %	50%	67%	33%
Points / game	74.3	79.5	69.2
Allowed / game	73.4	73.5	73.3
Point differential	+0.9	+6.0	-4.2
Avg total	147.8	153.0	142.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	25%	50%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	40% (5)	50% (2)	33% (3)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Tobol Kostanay	10	8	2	80%	88.1	77.7	+10.4
2	Irbis Almaty	9	7	2	78%	77.6	63.4	+14.1
3	Atyrau	14	10	4	71%	82.7	74.8	+7.9
4	Almaty	11	7	4	64%	80.5	76.6	+3.8
5	Kaspiy Aktau	12	6	6	50%	74.3	73.4	+0.9
6	Astana 2	14	4	10	29%	71.6	80.5	-8.9
7	Aktobe	12	3	9	25%	78.1	84.5	-6.4
8	Pavlodar	12	2	10	17%	67.9	84.0	-16.1

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Pavlodar	14	22	25	25	86
Kaspiy Aktau	16	13	21	19	69

← all games of the day

Pavlodar vs Kaspiy Aktau Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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