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Aris vs Neptunas Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 83-64
21-21 19-13 25-8 18-22
Position#13
Record7-9
FormLWWLW
Points / game84.3
Allowed / game89.8
Aris 🏆
vs
Position#14
Record7-9
FormWLWWW
Points / game94.2
Allowed / game97.2
EuropeEurocupRound 17· Alexandreio Mellathron
European cup2025
Meetings · Aris v Neptunas
04 Feb 2026
ARI83
NEP64
06 Jan 2016
ARI84
NEP58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aris winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ArisLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAris
Date
Competition
AEK Athens
#4
L
76-82
76
82
-6
72avg 76
A27/12
Basket League
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
60-89
60
89
-29
43avg 76
H30/12
Eurocup
Olympiacos
#1
L
84-95
84
95
-11
79avg 76
H04/01
Basket League
Manresa
#10
L
99-113
99
113
-14
83avg 76
A06/01
Eurocup
Iraklis
#8
W
78-76
78
76
+2
68avg 76
H10/01
Basket League
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
L
77-96
77
96
-19
no box
H14/01
Eurocup
Slask Wroclaw
#18
W
113-107 OT
113
107
+6
104avg 76
A20/01
Eurocup
Promitheas
#9
W
103-97
103
97
+6
101avg 76
A24/01
Basket League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#7
L
79-81
79
81
-2
76avg 76
A28/01
Eurocup
Panathinaikos
#2
W
102-95 OT
102
95
+7
95avg 76
H01/02
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
18-19
24-25
16-20
15-19
16-25
11-22
18-23
21-25
22-20
20-28
21-22
18-35
20-28
28-24
33-26
22-21
23-19
22-17
11-19
16-27
21-19
15-27
25-23
24-19
24-31
24-21
17-18
29-25
33-29
18-18
23-25
23-19
19-20
22-17
15-25
22-23
20-19
21-14
24-31
180.2Avg total
87.1Scored
93.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)84.389.8174.1-5.444%
Season at home (8)81.686.9168.5-5.238%
Season away (8)87.092.6179.6-5.650%
Last 10 (10)87.193.1180.2-6.040%
Last 5 (5)94.895.2190.0-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)80.591.5172.0-11.115%
vs Similar ◀ (4)80.880.8161.5+0.050%
vs Weaker (13)89.283.8173.0+5.577%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Venezia
#9
L
103-118
103
118
-15
101avg 85
H02/01
Eurocup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
77-112
77
112
-35
66avg 85
A04/01
LKL
Hamburg
#20
W
98-94
98
94
+4
90avg 85
A07/01
Eurocup
Nevezis
#9
W
113-82
113
82
+31
111avg 85
H10/01
LKL
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
85-104
85
104
-19
74avg 85
H13/01
Eurocup
Nevezis
#5
W
87-67
87
67
+20
no box
H17/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Manresa
#10
L
96-97
96
97
-1
88avg 85
A21/01
Eurocup
Lietkabelis
#6
W
97-87
97
87
+10
94avg 85
H24/01
LKL
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
W
98-92
98
92
+6
96avg 85
H28/01
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
W
95-87
95
87
+8
92avg 85
H31/01
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-29
21-29
31-31
16-29
25-31
6-32
18-23
28-26
25-24
23-20
21-24
29-26
29-24
24-27
33-13
27-18
16-24
25-23
20-27
24-30
17-13
21-24
30-15
19-15
24-22
29-24
20-16
23-35
29-23
17-21
24-19
27-24
33-25
21-30
23-17
21-20
30-19
22-26
23-22
20-20
188.9Avg total
94.9Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)94.297.2191.4-3.044%
Season at home (8)96.997.0193.9-0.150%
Season away (8)91.597.4188.9-5.938%
Last 10 (10)94.994.0188.9+0.960%
Last 5 (5)94.686.0180.6+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)91.8102.6194.4-10.830%
vs Similar ◀ (8)92.886.4179.1+6.462%
vs Weaker (12)102.291.3193.5+10.883%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.3-2.3Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -0.9-0.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.3-2.3Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -0.9-0.9
ArisNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ArisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AEK Athens
#4
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A27/12
Basket League
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H30/12
Eurocup
Olympiacos
#1
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H04/01
Basket League
Manresa
#10
L
38-63
38
63
-25
A06/01
Eurocup
Iraklis
#8
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H10/01
Basket League
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
L
37-46
37
46
-9
H14/01
Eurocup
Slask Wroclaw
#18
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A20/01
Eurocup
Promitheas
#9
W
62-54
62
54
+8
A24/01
Basket League
Bahcesehir Kol.
#7
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A28/01
Eurocup
Panathinaikos
#2
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H01/02
Basket League
88.4Avg total
42.4Scored
46.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.841.484.1+1.460%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.938.980.8+3.062%-
Last 30 away (14)43.844.288.0-0.457%-
Last 10 (10)42.446.088.4-3.630%-
Last 5 (5)46.246.292.4+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)42.044.486.4-2.438%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)39.539.879.2-0.250%-
vs Weaker (13)44.538.883.4+5.785%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezia
#9
L
56-58
56
58
-2
H02/01
Eurocup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
31-63
31
63
-32
A04/01
LKL
Hamburg
#20
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A07/01
Eurocup
Nevezis
#9
W
53-51
53
51
+2
H10/01
LKL
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H13/01
Eurocup
Nevezis
#5
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H17/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Manresa
#10
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A21/01
Eurocup
Lietkabelis
#6
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H24/01
LKL
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H28/01
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H31/01
LKL
96.2Avg total
47.2Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.447.995.3-0.557%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.847.796.4+1.150%-
Last 30 away (14)45.948.194.1-2.264%-
Last 10 (10)47.249.096.2-1.860%-
Last 5 (5)48.645.494.0+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)46.152.298.3-6.140%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)47.245.492.6+1.962%-
vs Weaker (12)48.746.094.7+2.767%-
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aristheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aris: 86.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.718.8
48.6%
54.5%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.510.0
36.4%
34.4%30.0
🏀 Free throws23.919.3
80.8%
75.2%19.3
They take 66.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 95.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀26%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws24.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.2 points a game
48%
32%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.520.4
55.9%
54.5%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.410.2
35.9%
34.4%30.6
🏀 Free throws29.824.5
82.2%
75.2%24.5
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aris
WLWWLWLLLL
Neptunas
WWWLWLWWLL
#13
League position
#14
-4.2
Net rating
-1.5
101.6
Offensive rating
112.9
105.8
Defensive rating
114.4
51.1%
Effective FG%
55.0%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
59.5%
17.0%
Turnover %
14.0%
26.8%
Off. rebound %
31.2%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.46
36.4%
3-point %
35.9%
61.5%
Assist %
64.1%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence101.6 · 112.9Defence105.8 · 114.4Shooting51.1% · 55.0%3-point %36.4% · 35.9%Ball care17.0% · 14.0%Off. rebounds26.8% · 31.2%Free throws0.36 · 0.46Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Aris   ■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Aris wins
1
Neptunas wins
DateGameScore
18/11/25Neptunas v Aris87-93
03/02/16Neptunas v Aris72-68
06/01/16Aris v Neptunas84-58
Arislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/02/26HPanathinaikos102-95 OT
28/01/26ABahcesehir Kol.79-81
24/01/26APromitheas103-97
20/01/26ASlask Wroclaw113-107 OT
14/01/26HHapoel Jerusalem77-96
10/01/26HIraklis78-76
06/01/26AManresa99-113
04/01/26HOlympiacos84-95
30/12/25HCedevita Olimpija60-89
27/12/25AAEK Athens76-82
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26HRytas95-87
28/01/26HHapoel Jerusalem98-92
24/01/26HLietkabelis97-87
21/01/26AManresa96-97
17/01/26HNevezis87-67
13/01/26HCedevita Olimpija85-104
10/01/26HNevezis113-82
07/01/26AHamburg98-94
04/01/26AZalgiris Kaunas77-112
02/01/26HVenezia103-118

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aris
Eurocup 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL44%
HomeLLWLL38%
AwayWWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %44%38%50%
Points / game84.381.687.0
Allowed / game89.886.992.6
Point differential-5.4-5.2-5.6
Avg total174.1168.5179.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %6%0%12%
Neptunas
Eurocup 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW44%
HomeLWLLW50%
AwayLWLWL38%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1688
Win %44%50%38%
Points / game94.296.991.5
Allowed / game97.297.097.4
Point differential-3.0-0.1-5.9
Avg total191.4193.9188.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%25%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)0% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %6%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Hapoel Jerusalem1713476%96.584.2+12.3
2 JL Bourg1713476%83.075.7+7.3
3 Besiktas1712571%92.884.4+8.5
4 Turk Telekom1711665%87.275.9+11.4
5 Buducnost1711665%88.981.6+7.3
6 Bahcesehir Kol.1711665%88.481.7+6.6
7 Cedevita Olimpija1610662%87.178.6+8.5
8 Manresa1610662%89.689.6-0.1
9 Trento1710759%83.685.6-2.0
10 Venezia169756%89.587.3+2.2
11 Chemnitz179853%82.181.8+0.3
12 Cluj-Napoca178947%95.693.9+1.7
13 Neptunas167944%94.297.2-3.0
14 Aris167944%84.389.8-5.4
15 Ulm1771041%82.590.9-8.5
16 London Lions1751229%75.981.4-5.4
17 Slask Wroclaw1751229%85.794.7-9.0
18 Lietkabelis1741324%79.685.8-6.1
19 Panionios1731418%75.788.4-12.7
20 Hamburg1621412%81.596.1-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aris2119251883
Neptunas211382264
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