Aris will host Olympiacos on 15 November 2026 in the Greek Basket League, and the Pythia model predicts a high total of 164.1 points, driven by Olympiacos' 85.8 points per game and Aris' 84.5 points per game. Aris enters the game with a 5-1 record, 84.5 points scored and 71.5 points allowed per game, and is fourth in the league, while Olympiacos is undefeated at 6-0, 85.8 points scored and 67.8 points allowed per game, sitting first. At home, Aris is unbeaten 3-0, averaging 87.7 points and 68.7 allowed, and in their last five games they have four wins and one loss, including a 105-81 victory over Rigas Zelli at home on 11 November. Olympiacos has gone 4-0 on the road, 81.2 points per game and 65.5 allowed, and in their last five they have four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 101-72 win over Dubai at home on 12 November. Historically, Olympiacos has won all ten meetings, most recently 92-81 on 19 April 2026. The model favours Olympiacos with a 68% chance of victory, a projected score of 79-85, and a 42% probability that the home team covers the 3.5-point line; the over on the 155.5-point total has a 69% chance, and there is a 5% chance of overtime. Olympiacos' recent 101-72 win over Dubai shows the team's offensive potency.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aris win
32.5%fair 3.08
Best odds2.36
Implied42.2%
Edge-9.7pp
Olympiacos win
67.5%fair 1.48
Best odds1.71
Implied57.8%
Edge+9.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Aris) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 164 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 165-169 (12%). The market's main line is 155.5.
Over/Under 150.5
Over 150.5
78.8%
@ 1.29+6.9pp
Under 150.5
21.2%
@ 3.30-6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.30
Betano
3.30
Over/Under 155.5 · main line
Over 155.5
69.1%
@ 1.83+4.2pp
Under 155.5
30.9%
@ 2.67-4.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.43
Marathon Be
1.43
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.65
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 160.5
Over 160.5
57.9%
@ 1.86+1.0pp
Under 160.5
42.1%
@ 2.21-1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathon Be
2.02
Bet365
2.00
📊 3. Team Totals
Aris total 74.5
Over 74.5
67.3%
@ 1.40-1.6pp
Under 74.5
32.7%
@ 3.00+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.86
Bet365
2.75
Aris total 78.5 · main line
Over 78.5
52.8%
@ 1.85+0.5pp
Under 78.5
47.2%
@ 2.10-0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.76
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.10
1xBet
1.97
Marathon Be
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Aris total 82.5
Over 82.5
38.0%
@ 2.35-3.5pp
Under 82.5
62.0%
@ 1.55+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.18
1xBet
2.03
Under
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
1xBet
1.51
Olympiacos total 76.5
Over 76.5
78.6%
@ 1.41+9.3pp
Under 76.5
21.4%
@ 3.05-9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Under
Betano
3.05
1xBet
2.88
Bet365
2.70
Olympiacos total 80.5 · main line
Over 80.5
65.8%
@ 1.83+9.6pp
Under 80.5
34.2%
@ 2.15-9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
1.98
Bet365
1.83
Olympiacos total 84.5
Over 84.5
50.9%
@ 2.50+8.3pp
Under 84.5
49.1%
@ 1.57-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.01
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Aris's side (positive = Aris win). Pythia's expected margin is -5.3; Aris win by 1+ in 28% of simulations.
Spread Aris -0.5
ARI -0.5
32.5%
OLY +0.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
ARI
No market prices yet.
OLY
No market prices yet.
Spread Aris +2.5 · main line
ARI +2.5
39.1%
@ 1.92-11.1pp
OLY -2.5
60.9%
@ 1.92+11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
ARI
1xBet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
OLY
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread Aris +5.5
ARI +5.5
49.6%
@ 1.56-11.8pp
OLY -5.5
50.4%
@ 2.50+11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
ARI
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathon Be
1.51
Bet365
1.50
OLY
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.35
Marathon Be
2.26
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
ArisOlympiacos
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Aris) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
ARI win
38.3%
@ 1.95-10.0pp
OLY win
61.7%
@ 1.82+10.0pp
2nd half Spread Aris +1 · main line
ARI +1
42.5%
@ 1.83-8.0pp
OLY -1
57.5%
@ 1.87+8.0pp
2nd half Over/Under 80.5 · main line
Over
54.2%
@ 1.85+3.8pp
Under
45.8%
@ 1.88-3.8pp
Aris 2nd half total 39 · main line
Over
52.3%
@ 1.83+0.6pp
Under
47.7%
@ 1.87-0.6pp
Olympiacos 2nd half total 41 · main line
Over
56.4%
@ 1.87+7.6pp
Under
43.6%
@ 1.83-7.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 79.25
Over
57.7%
@ 1.75+5.9pp
Under
42.3%
@ 1.88-5.9pp
2nd half Spread Aris 0
ARI 0
38.3%
@ 1.98-9.2pp
OLY 0
61.7%
@ 1.79+9.2pp
2nd half Over/Under 82.5
Over
46.8%
@ 1.98+2.8pp
Under
53.2%
@ 1.56-2.8pp
2nd half Spread Aris +2.5
ARI +2.5
48.9%
@ 1.61-5.8pp
OLY -2.5
51.1%
@ 1.95+5.8pp
2nd half Over/Under 78
Over
63.4%
@ 1.69+11.6pp
Under
36.6%
@ 1.81-11.6pp
2nd half Over/Under 76.5
Over
67.8%
@ 1.55+11.4pp
Under
32.2%
@ 2.00-11.4pp
2nd half Spread Aris -1.5
ARI -1.5
32.9%
@ 2.09-9.4pp
OLY +1.5
67.1%
@ 1.53+9.4pp
2nd half Spread Aris +3.5
ARI +3.5
53.1%
@ 1.53-4.6pp
OLY -3.5
46.9%
@ 2.09+4.6pp
2nd half Spread Aris -2.5
ARI -2.5
29.4%
@ 2.26-9.8pp
OLY +2.5
70.6%
@ 1.46+9.8pp
2nd half Spread Aris +4.5
ARI +4.5
57.2%
@ 1.46-3.5pp
OLY -4.5
42.8%
@ 2.26+3.5pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
ARI
36.7%
@ 2.06-7.2pp
Draw
4.0%
@ 17.00-1.5pp
OLY
59.3%
@ 1.87+8.7pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aristheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Aris: 72.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.3
17.1
45.8%
50.6%
34.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.0
7.2
27.7%
34.4%
21.6
🏀Free throws
24.3
16.8
69.1%
71.8%
16.8
Their opponents take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Olympiacostheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Olympiacos: 73.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
31.2
14.2
45.5%
50.6%
28.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
32.5
11.5
35.4%
34.4%
34.5
🏀Free throws
14.8
10.7
72.3%
71.8%
10.7
Their opponents take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 58.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aristheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Aris: 81.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.5 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.7
18.2
51.0%
50.6%
36.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.3
9.1
33.5%
34.4%
27.4
🏀Free throws
24.0
17.2
71.9%
71.8%
17.2
Their opponents take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Olympiacostheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Olympiacos: 70.9 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.3 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
46%
34%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
30.5
16.3
53.4%
50.6%
32.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
30.3
10.0
33.0%
34.4%
30.0
🏀Free throws
11.1
8.3
74.3%
71.8%
8.3
Their opponents take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of those shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aris
WWLWWWWWWW
Olympiacos
WWLWWWWLWW
#4
League position
#1
+16.5
Net rating
+16.1
96.8
Offensive rating
101.9
80.3
Defensive rating
85.8
52.7%
Effective FG%
55.7%
44.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.4%
15.6%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.34
36.6%
3-point %
34.0%
71.6%
Assist %
66.9%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%
Profile
■ Aris■ Olympiacos
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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