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Arlans vs Shymkent Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 10 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 07:00
Final 74-102
17-30 22-35 16-20 19-17
Position#11
Record7-13
FormWLWLL
Points / game75.3
Allowed / game79.2
vs
Position#2
Record18-3
FormWWWLW
Points / game94.5
Allowed / game68.9
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Arlans v Shymkent
12 Mar 2026
ARLA67
SHYM103
10 Mar 2026
ARLA74
SHYM102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arlans winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Shymkent winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ArlansKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormArlans
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
63-77
63
77
-14
48avg 64
H09/01
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
73-77
73
77
-4
no box
H18/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
93-66
93
66
+27
no box
A19/01
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
69-71
69
71
-2
64avg 64
H20/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
56-88
56
88
-32
49avg 64
A21/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
93-55
93
55
+38
93avg 64
A10/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
80-91
80
91
-11
64avg 64
H11/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
86-57
86
57
+29
no box
A12/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
86-97
86
97
-11
77avg 64
H13/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
54-93
54
93
-39
33avg 64
A09/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-13
19-17
14-25
12-22
17-16
19-12
17-22
20-27
20-20
30-13
27-27
16-6
15-19
15-16
20-18
19-18
19-25
15-23
9-22
13-18
28-7
21-13
25-17
19-18
16-22
20-24
15-19
29-26
30-14
15-11
23-15
18-17
17-31
22-16
21-20
26-30
19-22
7-28
12-22
16-21
152.5Avg total
75.3Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)75.379.2154.6-3.935%
Season at home (9)72.881.4154.2-8.711%
Season away (11)77.577.4154.8+0.155%
Last 10 (10)75.377.2152.5-1.930%
Last 5 (5)79.878.6158.4+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)74.190.9165.0-16.811%
vs Similar (6)71.578.8150.3-7.317%
vs Weaker (5)82.258.6140.8+23.6100%
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShymkentKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormShymkent
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#14
W
109-52
109
52
+57
107avg 85
H28/11
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
94-78
94
78
+16
72avg 85
A29/11
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
111-63
111
63
+48
103avg 85
H30/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
96-58
96
58
+38
104avg 85
H15/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
110-65
110
65
+45
116avg 85
A16/12
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
94-76
94
76
+18
90avg 85
H17/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
75-60
75
60
+15
71avg 85
A18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
W
66-58
66
58
+8
60avg 85
A12/02
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
70-77
70
77
-7
59avg 85
H14/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
93-55
93
55
+38
97avg 85
H09/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-8
27-10
36-18
11-16
23-20
24-17
33-26
14-15
31-15
26-11
31-13
23-24
25-11
31-22
18-14
22-11
36-20
20-16
32-15
22-14
30-20
23-14
22-23
19-19
28-14
21-17
20-12
6-17
19-9
10-10
17-28
20-11
20-15
20-18
20-22
10-22
22-9
29-20
24-7
18-19
156.0Avg total
91.8Scored
64.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)94.568.9163.4+25.686%
Season at home (12)93.968.8162.8+25.175%
Season away (9)95.369.0164.3+26.3100%
Last 10 (10)91.864.2156.0+27.690%
Last 5 (5)79.665.2144.8+14.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)53.090.0143.0-37.00%
vs Similar (6)79.376.2155.5+3.233%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)91.560.9152.4+30.696%
This opponent (Arlans) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-16-8+0+8+16Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +12.8+12.8Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +7.6+7.6Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +7.5+7.5Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: -0.3-0.3
-16-8+0+8+16Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: +12.8+12.8Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +7.6+7.6Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +7.5+7.5Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: -0.3-0.3
ArlansShymkent
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ArlansLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H09/01
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H18/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
50-33
50
33
+17
A19/01
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H20/01
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A21/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
49-20
49
20
+29
A10/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H11/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
45-25
45
25
+20
A12/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H13/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
26-50
26
50
-24
A09/03
Higher League
74.4Avg total
38.2Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (20)37.139.076.1-1.940%-
Last 30 at home (9)32.438.971.3-6.422%-
Last 30 away (11)40.939.180.0+1.855%-
Last 10 (10)38.236.274.4+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)39.037.676.6+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)32.147.379.4-15.20%-
vs Similar (6)38.238.376.5-0.250%-
vs Weaker (5)44.824.869.6+20.0100%-
This opponent (Shymkent) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ShymkentLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#14
W
62-18
62
18
+44
H28/11
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A29/11
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
57-26
57
26
+31
H30/11
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
56-33
56
33
+23
H15/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
56-36
56
36
+20
A16/12
Higher League
Bars Petropavlovsk
#3
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H17/12
Higher League
Tigers-KazATU
#10
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A18/12
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
W
29-19
29
19
+10
A12/02
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/02
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
51-29
51
29
+22
H09/03
Higher League
79.6Avg total
50.0Scored
29.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)48.833.181.9+15.683%-
Last 30 at home (16)49.433.082.4+16.481%-
Last 30 away (13)48.033.381.3+14.785%-
Last 10 (10)50.029.679.6+20.4100%-
Last 5 (5)44.429.273.6+15.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)24.038.062.0-14.00%-
vs Similar (6)44.040.284.2+3.833%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)51.231.082.2+20.2100%-
This opponent (Arlans) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Arlanstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Arlans: 67.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.7 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.618.9
46.5%
49.5%37.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.95.9
22.7%
28.5%17.6
🏀 Free throws20.412.0
58.7%
63.9%12.0
They take 66.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Shymkenttheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Shymkent: 93.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.024.0
63.2%
49.5%48.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.010.0
33.3%
28.5%30.0
🏀 Free throws29.015.0
51.7%
63.9%15.0
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 7/1 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Arlans
LLWLWLLWLL
Shymkent
WLWWWWWWWW
#11
League position
#2
-29.9
Net rating
+50.7
83.3
Offensive rating
124.0
113.2
Defensive rating
73.4
41.6%
Effective FG%
57.4%
49.8%
Opp. effective FG%
38.8%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.43
22.7%
3-point %
33.3%
58.4%
Assist %
79.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence83.3 · 124.0Defence113.2 · 73.4Shooting41.6% · 57.4%3-point %22.7% · 33.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.43Form (last 10/10)30% · 90%
■ Arlans   ■ Shymkent
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Arlans wins
0
Shymkent wins
No previous meetings.
Arlanslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26ATuran54-93
13/02/26HKaraganda86-97
12/02/26APavlodar86-57
11/02/26HKaraganda80-91
10/02/26APavlodar93-55
21/01/26ATobol Kostanay 256-88
20/01/26HChelSU Kostanay69-71
19/01/26ATobol Kostanay 293-66
18/01/26HChelSU Kostanay73-77
09/01/26HCHAMP1ON63-77
Shymkentlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26HAiRom93-55
14/02/26HAktobe70-77
12/02/26AAktobe66-58
18/12/25ATigers-KazATU75-60
17/12/25HBars Petropavlovsk94-76
16/12/25ATigers-KazATU110-65
15/12/25HBars Petropavlovsk96-58
30/11/25HPavlodar111-63
29/11/25AKaraganda94-78
28/11/25HPavlodar109-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arlans
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL35%
HomeLLLLL11%
AwayWLWWL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20911
Win %35%11%55%
Points / game75.372.877.5
Allowed / game79.281.477.4
Point differential-3.9-8.7+0.1
Avg total154.6154.2154.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%11%55%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Shymkent
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW86%
HomeWWWLW75%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21129
Win %86%75%100%
Points / game94.593.995.3
Allowed / game68.968.869.0
Point differential+25.6+25.1+26.3
Avg total163.4162.8164.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+76%75%78%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan21210100%88.059.6+28.3
2 Shymkent2118386%94.568.9+25.6
3 Aktobe2117481%82.466.2+16.2
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2015575%82.861.0+21.8
5 Atyrau 22115671%77.768.9+8.9
6 BC Almaty 22012860%80.873.3+7.4
7 ChelSU Kostanay2213959%77.379.5-2.1
8 CHAMP1ON20101050%73.872.8+0.9
9 Karaganda2091145%80.278.0+2.2
10 Tigers-KazATU1971237%66.977.2-10.3
11 Arlans2071335%75.379.2-3.9
12 AiRom2041620%64.778.7-13.9
13 Tobol Kostanay 22341917%68.782.0-13.3
14 Pavlodar2021810%53.389.8-36.5
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2221215%53.083.6-30.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Arlans1722161974
Shymkent30352017102
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