PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Ballarat vs Keilor Thunder Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 11 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 10:30
Final 79-69
25-22 18-18 13-11 23-18
Position#5
Record10-8
FormWWLWL
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game91.6
vs
Position#15
Record7-11
FormWWLWL
Points / game83.2
Allowed / game88.7
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Ballarat v Keilor Thunder
11 Jul 2025
BALL79
KEIL69
09 Jul 2022
BALL68
KEIL88
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ballarat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Keilor Thunder winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BallaratAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Diamond Valley
#19
W
104-94
104
94
+10
H11/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
87-106
87
106
-19
A17/05
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
69-116
69
116
-47
H24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
112-109
112
109
+3
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
L
66-77
66
77
-11
A14/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
W
96-83
96
83
+13
A15/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
W
86-84
86
84
+2
H21/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
97-118
97
118
-21
H28/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
W
102-61
102
61
+41
A29/06
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
82-85
82
85
-3
H05/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-29
20-31
34-17
30-17
26-25
15-20
24-33
22-28
11-42
18-31
19-20
21-23
33-27
31-31
20-30
28-21
21-22
16-10
14-23
15-22
24-34
22-21
25-12
25-16
16-34
26-18
24-16
20-16
24-34
23-23
27-36
23-25
26-24
29-10
20-6
27-21
26-24
20-20
15-28
21-13
183.4Avg total
90.1Scored
93.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)88.291.6179.7-3.456%
Season at home (9)89.693.7183.2-4.156%
Season away (9)86.889.4176.2-2.756%
Last 10 (10)90.193.3183.4-3.250%
Last 5 (5)92.686.2178.8+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)81.596.5178.0-15.025%
vs Similar (8)89.185.4174.5+3.875%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)92.787.4180.1+5.380%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Keilor ThunderAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Knox
#1
L
69-75
69
75
-6
A10/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
75-70
75
70
+5
H17/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
78-94
78
94
-16
H24/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
80-90
80
90
-10
H31/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
74-101
74
101
-27
A06/06
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
77-66
77
66
+11
H14/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A21/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
95-96
95
96
-1
H28/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
108-99
108
99
+9
H05/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
69-70
69
70
-1
A08/07
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-19
16-25
21-9
13-22
25-16
14-30
19-14
17-10
25-20
18-28
17-26
18-20
30-20
17-18
15-23
18-29
22-24
17-29
16-21
19-27
22-21
10-16
23-14
22-15
21-17
32-22
18-18
25-21
18-20
23-30
27-15
27-31
31-24
29-16
15-24
33-35
21-25
17-23
17-10
14-12
166.0Avg total
82.1Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)83.288.7171.9-5.439%
Season at home (9)86.488.8175.2-2.356%
Season away (9)80.088.6168.6-8.622%
Last 10 (10)82.183.9166.0-1.840%
Last 5 (5)89.081.8170.8+7.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)78.587.6166.1-9.124%
vs Similar (8)81.983.8165.6-1.962%
vs Weaker (5)92.885.2178.0+7.680%
This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.8-6.8Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: -1.6-1.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.8-6.8Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: -1.6-1.6
BallaratKeilor Thunder
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Diamond Valley
#19
L
40-60
40
60
-20
H11/05
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A17/05
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
29-73
29
73
-44
H24/05
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
W
64-58
64
58
+6
A31/05
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A14/06
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#11
L
46-55
46
55
-9
A15/06
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
42-52
42
52
-10
H21/06
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
47-57
47
57
-10
H28/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
W
55-34
55
34
+21
A29/06
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H05/07
NBL1 South
95.7Avg total
44.7Scored
51.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.446.691.0-2.240%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.944.989.9+0.047%-
Last 30 away (15)43.948.392.1-4.433%-
Last 10 (10)44.751.095.7-6.340%-
Last 5 (5)47.248.495.6-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)40.548.789.2-8.233%-
vs Similar (8)44.845.890.5-1.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)48.844.893.6+4.060%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Keilor ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Knox
#1
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/05
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H17/05
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#7
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H24/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H31/05
NBL1 South
Melbourne Tigers
#4
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A06/06
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H14/06
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A21/06
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
41-50
41
50
-9
H28/06
NBL1 South
Diamond Valley
#19
W
60-40
60
40
+20
H05/07
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A08/07
NBL1 South
87.0Avg total
42.7Scored
44.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.143.885.0-2.730%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.543.584.0-3.127%-
Last 30 away (15)41.844.185.9-2.333%-
Last 10 (10)42.744.387.0-1.630%-
Last 5 (5)44.842.887.6+2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)39.845.084.8-5.224%-
vs Similar (8)40.644.084.6-3.425%-
vs Weaker (5)46.439.686.0+6.860%-
This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Ballarat wins
3
Keilor Thunder wins
Ballaratlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/07/25HKilsyth82-85
29/06/25ARingwood102-61
28/06/25HSandringham Sabres97-118
21/06/25HFrankston86-84
15/06/25ANunawading96-83
14/06/25AKeilor Thunder66-77
31/05/25ABendigo Braves112-109
24/05/25HMt Gambier69-116
17/05/25ASandringham Sabres87-106
11/05/25HDiamond Valley104-94
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/07/25ASandringham Sabres69-70
05/07/25HDiamond Valley108-99
28/06/25HRingwood95-96
21/06/25AEltham96-78
14/06/25HBallarat77-66
06/06/25AMelbourne Tigers74-101
31/05/25HCasey Cavaliers80-90
24/05/25HKilsyth78-94
17/05/25HWaverley75-70
10/05/25AKnox69-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ballarat
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL56%
HomeWLWLL56%
AwayLWLWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %56%56%56%
Points / game88.289.686.8
Allowed / game91.693.789.4
Point differential-3.4-4.1-2.7
Avg total179.7183.2176.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%33%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)67% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Keilor Thunder
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL39%
HomeLLWLW56%
AwayLLLWL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %39%56%22%
Points / game83.286.480.0
Allowed / game88.788.888.6
Point differential-5.4-2.3-8.6
Avg total171.9175.2168.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%11%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox1915479%90.882.9+7.9
2 Mt Gambier1913668%96.784.6+12.1
3 Sandringham Sabres1811761%91.288.8+2.4
4 Melbourne Tigers1911858%86.480.9+5.5
5 Kilsyth1911858%87.185.2+1.9
6 Casey Cavaliers1810856%88.985.8+3.1
7 Hobart Chargers1810856%86.984.5+2.4
8 Eltham1810856%87.686.6+0.9
9 Ballarat1810856%88.291.6-3.4
10 Ringwood2011955%94.889.3+5.5
11 Frankston189950%91.988.2+3.7
12 Nunawading1991047%86.587.0-0.5
13 Waverley1991047%92.994.6-1.7
14 Bendigo Braves2081240%83.694.2-10.7
15 Geelong1871139%83.788.5-4.8
16 Keilor Thunder1871139%83.288.7-5.4
17 NW Tasmania1851328%85.689.7-4.1
18 Dandenong1851328%89.796.0-6.3
19 Diamond Valley1851328%85.394.6-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ballarat2518132379
Keilor Thunder2218111869
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.