Basket Napoli face Trieste in the Lega Basket Serie A on 15 November 2026, with the model favouring Basket Napoli at 70% to 30%. Basket Napoli have gone 6-1 this season, averaging 93.7 points and allowing 86.6, and sit second in the league; at home they are 2-1, scoring 93.3 and conceding 90.7, and have won all five of their recent games, including a 99-81 win over Venezia at home. Trieste are 4-3, averaging 94.4 points and giving up 88.4, and are sixth; on the road they are 1-2, scoring 87.7 and allowing 87.0, and have won four of their last five, with a 116-100 victory over BC Roma at home. In the eight meetings between the clubs, Trieste lead 7-1, most recently beating Basket Napoli 110-84 on 14 February 2026. The model projects a 93-87 score for Basket Napoli, with a total of 179.2 points; the home line is -8.0 with a 44% chance of covering, and the over/under line is 180.5 with a 46% chance of the over. The probability of overtime is 5%. Trieste's recent 116-100 win over BC Roma shows they can score in bursts, but Basket Napoli's current form and the 70% win probability suggest they will hold the edge in this matchup.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Basket Napoli win
71.5%fair 1.40
Best odds1.39
Implied70.4%
Edge+1.0pp
Trieste win
28.5%fair 3.51
Best odds3.50
Implied29.6%
Edge-1.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 183 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 180-184 (12%). The market's main line is 183.
Over/Under 178
Over 178
60.6%
@ 1.55+1.0pp
Under 178
39.4%
@ 2.30-1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.55
Marathon Be
1.49
Under
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Be
2.18
Over/Under 183 · main line
Over 183
48.5%
@ 1.90-1.5pp
Under 183
51.5%
@ 1.89+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.70
Under
Marathon Be
1.89
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 188
Over 188
36.7%
@ 2.55-2.1pp
Under 188
63.3%
@ 1.54+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Marathon Be
2.26
Under
Marathon Be
1.54
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Basket Napoli total 91.5
Over 91.5
61.7%
@ 1.52-0.5pp
Under 91.5
38.3%
@ 2.45+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.45
Bet365
2.40
1xBet
2.31
Basket Napoli total 95.5 · main line
Over 95.5
46.7%
@ 1.89-2.4pp
Under 95.5
53.3%
@ 1.85+2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Basket Napoli total 99.5
Over 99.5
32.2%
@ 2.60-3.6pp
Under 99.5
67.8%
@ 1.45+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.42
Under
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Trieste total 82.5
Over 82.5
70.1%
@ 1.40+3.9pp
Under 82.5
29.9%
@ 3.10-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.28
Under
Betano
3.10
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.44
Trieste total 86.5 · main line
Over 86.5
55.4%
@ 1.83-0.7pp
Under 86.5
44.6%
@ 2.20+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.72
WilliamHill
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.54
Under
WilliamHill
2.20
Betano
2.15
Marathon Be
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Bet365
1.83
Trieste total 90.5
Over 90.5
40.1%
@ 2.30-2.4pp
Under 90.5
59.9%
@ 1.62+2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
WilliamHill
2.20
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.01
Under
WilliamHill
1.62
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.55
1xBet
1.52
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Basket Napoli's side (positive = Basket Napoli win). Pythia's expected margin is +6.5; Basket Napoli win by 1+ in 64% of simulations.
Spread Basket Napoli -9.5
NAP -9.5
39.9%
@ 2.43+1.3pp
TRI +9.5
60.1%
@ 1.64-1.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NAP
Pinnacle
2.43
Betano
2.32
Marathon Be
2.18
Bet365
2.17
1xBet
2.16
TRI
Bet365
1.64
Marathon Be
1.59
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Spread Basket Napoli -6.5 · main line
NAP -6.5
50.8%
@ 1.91+0.9pp
TRI +6.5
49.2%
@ 1.95-0.9pp
Best 5 market prices
NAP
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
TRI
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.95
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Spread Basket Napoli -3.5
NAP -3.5
61.9%
@ 1.55+0.3pp
TRI +3.5
38.1%
@ 2.55-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
NAP
Betano
1.55
Marathon Be
1.51
Bet365
1.48
1xBet
1.42
TRI
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.35
Marathon Be
2.35
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Basket NapoliTrieste
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Basket NapoliLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cantu
#16
W
20-19
20
19
+1
A11/10
Lega A
Slask Wroclaw
#31
W
22-18
22
18
+4
A14/10
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#3
W
25-18
25
18
+7
H18/10
Lega A
Tofas
#6
W
29-20
29
20
+9
H21/10
Eurocup
Tortona
#12
L
19-26
19
26
-7
A25/10
Lega A
Neptunas
#26
W
24-20
24
20
+4
A28/10
Eurocup
Venezia
#9
W
19-16
19
16
+3
H01/11
Lega A
Trento
#27
W
24-21
24
21
+3
H03/11
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
W
22-19
22
19
+3
A08/11
Lega A
Chemnitz
#13
W
24-22
24
22
+2
A11/11
Eurocup
42.7Avg total
22.8Scored
19.9Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)
21.2
20.3
41.5
+1.0
70%
23%
Last 30 at home (14)
20.6
18.6
39.2
+2.1
71%
14%
Last 30 away (16)
21.8
21.8
43.5
+0.0
69%
31%
Last 10 (10)
22.8
19.9
42.7
+2.9
90%
20%
Last 5 (5)
22.6
19.6
42.2
+3.0
100%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)
22.4
20.6
43.0
+1.8
60%
40%
vs Similar ◀ (14)
20.3
19.6
39.9
+0.7
64%
21%
vs Weaker (11)
21.9
21.0
42.9
+0.9
82%
18%
This opponent (Trieste) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Basket Napoli) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
NAP win
62.9%
@ 1.55+1.9pp
TRI win
37.1%
@ 2.42-1.9pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -3.5 · main line
NAP -3.5
47.9%
@ 1.95-2.2pp
TRI +3.5
52.1%
@ 1.87+2.1pp
2nd half Over/Under 90.5 · main line
Over
51.1%
@ 1.85+0.4pp
Under
48.9%
@ 1.93-0.4pp
Basket Napoli 2nd half total 47 · main line
Over
49.6%
@ 1.83-0.8pp
Under
50.4%
@ 1.91+0.8pp
Trieste 2nd half total 43.5 · main line
Over
51.8%
@ 1.85+1.3pp
Under
48.2%
@ 1.93-1.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 89.25
Over
54.6%
@ 1.73+2.3pp
Under
45.4%
@ 1.90-2.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 91.75
Over
47.7%
@ 1.87-0.5pp
Under
52.3%
@ 1.74+0.5pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -4.5
NAP -4.5
43.7%
@ 1.92-4.3pp
TRI +4.5
56.3%
@ 1.82+4.3pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -2.5
NAP -2.5
51.9%
@ 1.83-0.1pp
TRI +2.5
48.1%
@ 1.95+0.1pp
2nd half Over/Under 93.5
Over
40.4%
@ 2.04-2.5pp
Under
59.6%
@ 1.53+2.5pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -5.5
NAP -5.5
39.9%
@ 1.99-4.5pp
TRI +5.5
60.1%
@ 1.59+4.5pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -1.5
NAP -1.5
56.3%
@ 1.85+3.0pp
TRI +1.5
43.7%
@ 2.00-3.0pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -6.5
NAP -6.5
35.8%
@ 2.14-5.4pp
TRI +6.5
64.2%
@ 1.50+5.4pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -7.5
NAP -7.5
32.1%
@ 2.32-6.1pp
TRI +7.5
67.9%
@ 1.43+6.1pp
2nd half Spread Basket Napoli -8.5
NAP -8.5
28.5%
@ 2.48-7.3pp
TRI +8.5
71.5%
@ 1.38+7.3pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
NAP
60.4%
@ 1.60+1.7pp
Draw
3.9%
@ 21.00-1.0pp
TRI
35.6%
@ 2.55-1.0pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Napolitheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Basket Napoli: 86.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀26%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.3
19.5
53.7%
54.3%
39.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
24.7
8.2
33.2%
34.3%
24.6
🏀Free throws
28.9
22.5
77.9%
74.6%
22.5
Their opponents take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Triestetheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Trieste: 85.5 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
39.4
20.5
52.0%
54.3%
41.0
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.2
9.4
37.3%
34.3%
28.2
🏀Free throws
21.4
16.3
76.2%
74.6%
16.3
Their opponents take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Basket Napolitheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Basket Napoli: 86.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.5 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.8
20.2
53.5%
54.3%
40.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.4
8.8
32.0%
34.3%
26.3
🏀Free throws
25.3
19.5
76.9%
74.6%
19.5
Their opponents take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Triestetheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Trieste: 85.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.7 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
39.1
21.4
54.7%
54.3%
42.7
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
28.8
9.5
33.0%
34.3%
28.5
🏀Free throws
18.2
13.8
75.9%
74.6%
13.8
Their opponents take 67.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Basket Napoli
WWWWWWWLWW
Trieste
WWWWLLLLWL
#2
League position
#7
+8.2
Net rating
+0.2
106.6
Offensive rating
100.8
98.4
Defensive rating
100.6
60.6%
Effective FG%
53.6%
52.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
15.8%
Turnover %
12.9%
0.40
Free-throw rate
0.34
41.7%
3-point %
34.9%
68.1%
Assist %
56.5%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%
Profile
■ Basket Napoli■ Trieste
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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