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Baylor vs Louisville Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 23 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#6
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game95.3
Allowed / game59.7
vs
Position#10
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game95.5
Allowed / game63.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Baylor v Louisville
23 Jan 2027
BAYL v LOUI
upcoming
14 Feb 2026
BAYL71
LOUI82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Baylor win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BaylorUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
87-86
87
86
+1
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
L
64-77
64
77
-13
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
101-75
101
75
+26
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
79-83
79
83
-4
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
87-65
87
65
+22
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#472
W
109-53
109
53
+56
H06/11
NCAA
Yale
#322
W
90-61
90
61
+29
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-41
40-49
32-40
41-28
41-34
39-53
56-42
31-44
35-35
29-42
53-33
48-42
35-44
44-39
50-32
37-33
58-13
51-40
41-30
49-31
158.9Avg total
84.4Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.359.7155.0+35.7100%
Season at home (3)95.359.7155.0+35.7100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)84.474.5158.9+9.960%
Last 5 (5)93.267.4160.6+25.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)66.577.5144.0-11.00%
vs Similar ◀ (11)80.778.0158.7+2.745%
vs Weaker (13)93.271.1164.2+22.177%
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
92-89
92
89
+3
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
83-79
83
79
+4
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#212
W
84-70
84
70
+14
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#237
W
107-57
107
57
+50
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-39
36-38
35-38
40-42
39-21
38-41
46-37
46-52
26-26
36-32
38-37
35-41
37-27
46-52
31-36
38-41
56-35
28-35
46-33
61-24
152.3Avg total
79.6Scored
72.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)95.563.5159.0+32.0100%
Season at home (2)95.563.5159.0+32.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.672.7152.3+6.960%
Last 5 (5)83.272.2155.4+11.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.583.5146.0-21.00%
vs Similar ◀ (8)75.481.4156.8-6.025%
vs Weaker (20)86.870.3157.1+16.585%
This opponent (Baylor) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +9.1+9.11st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: +0.6+0.6
-11-6+0+6+111st half1st half: +9.1+9.11st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: +0.6+0.6
BaylorLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
BaylorLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas State
#292
L
34-41
34
41
-7
A18/02
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H21/02
NCAA
Arizona
#7
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H25/02
NCAA
UCF Knights
#92
W
56-42
56
42
+14
A01/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A05/03
NCAA
Utah Utes
#333
W
53-33
53
33
+20
H07/03
NCAA
Arizona State
#194
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#338
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H03/11
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#472
W
58-13
58
13
+45
H06/11
NCAA
Yale
#322
W
41-30
41
30
+11
H11/11
NCAA
77.9Avg total
43.5Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.135.076.0+6.150%-
Last 30 at home (18)43.433.476.8+10.161%-
Last 30 away (12)37.537.374.8+0.233%-
Last 10 (10)43.534.477.9+9.160%-
Last 5 (5)47.430.477.8+17.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)32.233.065.2-0.817%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)38.537.475.9+1.245%-
vs Weaker (13)47.333.881.2+13.569%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
26-26
26
26
+0
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#212
W
56-35
56
35
+21
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#237
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H07/11
NCAA
72.1Avg total
39.2Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.033.973.8+6.157%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.631.272.8+10.475%-
Last 30 away (14)38.136.975.0+1.136%-
Last 10 (10)39.232.972.1+6.360%-
Last 5 (5)41.633.675.2+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.538.075.5-0.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)34.236.270.5-2.038%-
vs Weaker (20)42.532.575.0+10.065%-
This opponent (Baylor) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Baylor wins
1
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
14/02/26Baylor v Louisville71-82
Baylorlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HYale90-61
06/11/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff109-53
03/11/26HNorthwestern St.87-65
10/03/26AArizona State79-83
07/03/26HUtah Utes101-75
05/03/26AHouston64-77
01/03/26AUCF Knights87-86
25/02/26HArizona80-87
21/02/26HArizona State73-68
18/02/26AKansas State74-90
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HMorehead State107-57
03/11/26HChattanooga Mocs84-70
21/03/26AMichigan State69-77
19/03/26HSouth Florida83-79
12/03/26AMiami (FL)73-78
11/03/26HSMU Mustangs62-58
07/03/26AMiami (FL)92-89
04/03/26HSyracuse77-62
28/02/26AClemson75-80
24/02/26ANorth Carolina74-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Baylor
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.395.3-
Allowed / game59.759.7-
Point differential+35.7+35.7-
Avg total155.0155.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Louisville
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.595.5-
Allowed / game63.563.5-
Point differential+32.0+32.0-
Avg total159.0159.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big 12 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Baylor330100%95.359.7+35.7
2 West Virginia330100%85.753.3+32.3
3 Kansas330100%91.059.7+31.3
4 TCU440100%95.067.2+27.8
5 Texas Tech440100%81.053.8+27.2
6 Arizona State440100%85.563.2+22.2
7 Brigham Young440100%96.575.8+20.8
8 Utah Utes330100%72.761.3+11.3
9 UCF Knights440100%85.877.2+8.5
10 Cincinnati43175%79.063.0+16.0
11 Arizona43175%87.274.0+13.2
12 Houston32167%84.762.3+22.3
13 Oklahoma State32167%92.772.0+20.7
14 Iowa State32167%81.061.3+19.7
15 Kansas State32167%83.376.0+7.3
16 Colorado42250%74.069.5+4.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
3 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
4 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
5 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
6 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
7 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
8 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
9 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
10 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
11 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
12 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
13 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
14 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
15 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
16 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
17 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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