Boca Juniors vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 26 Oct 2024

Tip-off: 01:00

Final 83-81

24-15 20-26 20-20 19-20

Position#1

Record4-2

FormWWLLW

Points / game81.5

Allowed / game77.8

Boca Juniors 🏆

Penarol

Position#12

Record2-3

FormLWLWL

Points / game80.4

Allowed / game84.6

Liga A· Estadio Luis Conde

Other2024-25

Meetings · Boca Juniors v Penarol

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boca Juniors winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Penarol winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boca Juniors Argentina

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormJuniors

Date

Competition

Instituto de Cordoba

77-68

77avg 73

H12/07

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

70-66

66avg 73

H13/07

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

80-77

74avg 73

A17/07

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

79-72

77avg 73

H20/07

Liga A

Atenas

#13

81-69

+12

73avg 73

A08/10

Liga A

Zarate

#19

88-61

+27

90avg 73

H12/10

Liga A

Union De Santa Fe

#11

99-72

+27

98avg 73

H15/10

Liga A

Olimpico

#15

74-93

-19

60avg 73

A18/10

Liga A

Quimsa

67-97

-30

59avg 73

A19/10

Liga A

Riachuelo

80-75

77avg 73

A22/10

Liga A

19-14

15-13

18-20

25-21

21-16

14-17

17-22

18-11

24-21

18-25

24-14

14-17

19-17

16-18

29-15

15-22

26-15

23-18

17-17

15-19

25-9

23-18

28-15

12-19

30-22

24-12

24-16

21-22

23-20

22-24

8-27

18-23

13-29

21-20

15-25

22-20

23-23

16-16

19-16

154.5Avg total

79.5Scored

75.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (6)	81.5	77.8	159.3	+3.7	67%
Season at home (2)	93.5	66.5	160.0	+27.0	100%
Season away (4)	75.5	83.5	159.0	-8.0	50%
Last 10 (10)	79.5	75.0	154.5	+4.5	80%
Last 5 (5)	81.6	79.6	161.2	+2.0	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (15)	77.8	77.7	155.5	+0.1	60%
vs Weaker (15)	83.1	71.3	154.4	+11.7	80%

This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Penarol

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPenarol

Date

Competition

Quimsa

47-79

-32

32avg 69

A09/06

Liga A

Quimsa

85-70

+15

89avg 69

A11/06

Liga A

Quimsa

75-83

-8

71avg 69

H14/06

Liga A

Quimsa

65-64

60avg 69

H16/06

Liga A

Quimsa

60-91

-31

44avg 69

A19/06

Liga A

Ferro

82-84 OT

-2

63avg 69

A09/10

Liga A

Platense

#16

75-72

65avg 69

A12/10

Liga A

Obera TC

78-97

-19

69avg 69

H15/10

Liga A

Argentino

#20

85-83

75avg 69

A22/10

Liga A

Zarate

#19

82-87

-5

73avg 69

A24/10

Liga A

20-20

12-26

12-19

3-14

29-12

24-22

10-23

22-13

11-15

18-34

24-16

22-18

16-20

12-11

16-15

21-18

13-26

14-22

26-26

7-17

23-16

19-23

15-16

20-22

23-15

9-15

25-23

18-19

25-23

15-24

15-25

23-25

20-22

14-23

22-18

29-20

23-21

20-25

17-17

22-24

154.4Avg total

73.4Scored

81.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (5)	80.4	84.6	165.0	-4.2	40%
Season at home (1)	78.0	97.0	175.0	-19.0	0%
Season away (4)	81.0	81.5	162.5	-0.5	50%
Last 10 (10)	73.4	81.0	154.4	-7.6	40%
Last 5 (5)	80.4	84.6	165.0	-4.2	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	71.5	75.2	146.7	-3.7	50%
vs Similar ◀ (13)	81.5	77.4	158.9	+4.2	62%
vs Weaker (3)	80.7	80.7	161.3	+0.0	67%

This opponent (Boca Juniors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Boca JuniorsPenarol

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.6	18.6	39.1	+2.0	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.0	16.9	37.9	+4.1	79%	-
Last 30 away (16)	20.2	20.1	40.2	+0.1	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.5	17.9	40.4	+4.6	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.2	19.2	42.4	+4.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (15)	20.5	19.3	39.8	+1.1	60%	-
vs Weaker (15)	20.7	17.8	38.5	+2.9	60%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.5	18.8	39.3	+1.6	53%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	20.5	18.3	38.8	+2.2	62%	-
Last 30 away (14)	20.4	19.4	39.9	+1.0	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.3	19.0	39.3	+1.3	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.8	19.4	42.2	+3.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	17.8	17.9	35.6	-0.1	36%	-
vs Similar ◀ (13)	23.0	19.8	42.8	+3.2	69%	-
vs Weaker (3)	22.0	19.3	41.3	+2.7	67%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.5	18.2	37.7	+1.3	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.5	17.6	37.1	+1.9	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.6	18.8	38.3	+0.8	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.2	19.3	38.5	-0.1	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.2	20.4	41.6	+0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (15)	18.0	18.9	36.9	-0.9	47%	-
vs Weaker (15)	21.1	17.5	38.6	+3.5	73%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.1	20.0	39.1	-0.9	47%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.6	19.0	37.6	-0.4	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.6	21.1	40.7	-1.4	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	15.7	22.5	38.2	-6.8	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.4	22.0	37.4	-6.6	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	20.1	19.5	39.6	+0.6	64%	-
vs Similar ◀ (13)	19.2	20.2	39.4	-1.1	38%	-
vs Weaker (3)	14.3	21.0	35.3	-6.7	0%	-

Boca JuniorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Instituto de Cordoba

34-27

H12/07

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

35-33

H13/07

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

42-46

-4

A17/07

Liga A

Instituto de Cordoba

35-35

H20/07

Liga A

Atenas

#13

49-33

+16

A08/10

Liga A

Zarate

#19

48-27

+21

H12/10

Liga A

Union De Santa Fe

#11

54-34

+20

H15/10

Liga A

Olimpico

#15

44-42

A18/10

Liga A

Quimsa

31-52

-21

A19/10

Liga A

Riachuelo

45-43

A22/10

Liga A

78.9Avg total

41.7Scored

37.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.1	36.8	76.9	+3.3	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	40.5	34.4	74.9	+6.1	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	39.8	38.8	78.6	+0.9	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.7	37.2	78.9	+4.5	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.4	39.6	84.0	+4.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (15)	38.5	38.2	76.7	+0.3	53%	-
vs Weaker (15)	41.7	35.3	77.1	+6.4	67%	-

This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Quimsa

32-46

-14

A09/06

Liga A

Quimsa

53-34

+19

A11/06

Liga A

Quimsa

29-49

-20

H14/06

Liga A

Quimsa

28-31

-3

H16/06

Liga A

Quimsa

27-48

-21

A19/06

Liga A

Ferro

42-39

A09/10

Liga A

Platense

#16

32-30

A12/10

Liga A

Obera TC

40-47

-7

H15/10

Liga A

Argentino

#20

34-45

-11

A22/10

Liga A

Zarate

#19

43-46

-3

A24/10

Liga A

77.5Avg total

36.0Scored

41.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	39.6	38.8	78.4	+0.8	53%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	39.1	37.3	76.4	+1.8	62%	-
Last 30 away (14)	40.1	40.5	80.6	-0.4	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.0	41.5	77.5	-5.5	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.2	41.4	79.6	-3.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	37.9	37.4	75.2	+0.5	50%	-
vs Similar ◀ (13)	42.2	40.0	82.2	+2.2	62%	-
vs Weaker (3)	36.3	40.3	76.7	-4.0	33%	-

This opponent (Boca Juniors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.1	18.4	38.5	+1.7	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.8	17.9	39.6	+3.9	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.6	18.9	37.4	-0.3	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.6	17.9	39.5	+3.7	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.2	18.2	40.4	+4.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (15)	19.1	19.3	38.4	-0.1	40%	-
vs Weaker (15)	21.0	17.5	38.5	+3.5	53%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.8	18.9	37.6	-0.1	47%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.4	17.3	35.8	+1.1	62%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.1	20.6	39.8	-1.5	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.2	19.8	38.0	-1.6	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.8	19.8	38.6	-1.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	17.0	19.7	36.7	-2.7	21%	-
vs Similar ◀ (13)	20.1	17.8	37.9	+2.2	69%	-
vs Weaker (3)	21.3	19.3	40.7	+2.0	67%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.5	17.5	36.0	+1.0	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	21.1	17.4	38.6	+3.7	64%	-
Last 30 away (16)	16.2	17.6	33.8	-1.4	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.2	19.9	36.1	-3.7	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	15.0	21.8	36.8	-6.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (15)	17.7	17.3	34.9	+0.4	60%	-
vs Weaker (15)	19.3	17.8	37.1	+1.5	47%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.3	18.8	37.1	-0.5	40%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.7	17.6	36.2	+1.1	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.8	20.2	38.0	-2.4	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.7	19.0	37.7	-0.3	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.4	22.0	44.4	+0.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	16.6	18.1	34.8	-1.5	50%	-
vs Similar ◀ (13)	18.9	19.0	37.9	-0.1	31%	-
vs Weaker (3)	23.0	21.0	44.0	+2.0	33%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.6	35.9	74.5	+2.6	60%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	42.9	35.3	78.2	+7.6	86%	-
Last 30 away (16)	34.8	36.5	71.2	-1.8	38%	-
Last 10 (10)	37.8	37.8	75.6	+0.0	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	37.2	40.0	77.2	-2.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (15)	36.8	36.5	73.3	+0.3	60%	-
vs Weaker (15)	40.3	35.3	75.7	+5.0	60%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	37.0	37.7	74.7	-0.6	50%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	37.1	34.9	72.0	+2.2	69%	-
Last 30 away (14)	36.9	40.9	77.8	-3.9	29%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.9	38.8	75.7	-1.9	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	41.2	41.8	83.0	-0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)	33.6	37.9	71.5	-4.2	43%	-
vs Similar ◀ (13)	39.0	36.8	75.8	+2.2	54%	-
vs Weaker (3)	44.3	40.3	84.7	+4.0	67%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Boca Juniorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boca Juniors: 71.7 points a game scored

🏀🏀45%

🏀🏀🏀40%

🏀16%

🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 45% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 40% of the points

🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 16% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.5 points a game

48%

34%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	31.3	16.0	51.1%	53.8%	32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.7	9.5	31.0%	32.9%	28.5
🏀 Free throws	14.2	11.2	78.8%	71.7%	11.2

They take 62.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

No box scores for this team yet.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.8	18.0	47.6%	53.8%	36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.7	7.2	29.1%	32.9%	21.5
🏀 Free throws	20.3	15.3	75.4%	71.7%	15.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.8	18.0	47.6%	53.8%	36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.7	7.2	29.1%	32.9%	21.5
🏀 Free throws	20.3	15.3	75.4%	71.7%	15.3

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Boca Juniors wins

Penarol wins

Date	Game	Score
30/04/24	Boca Juniors v Penarol	87-83
15/10/23	Penarol v Boca Juniors	72-92
29/04/23	Penarol v Boca Juniors	110-114 OT
26/04/23	Boca Juniors v Penarol	98-84
23/04/23	Boca Juniors v Penarol	94-78
16/04/23	Boca Juniors v Penarol	92-82
24/11/22	Penarol v Boca Juniors	86-81
08/05/22	Boca Juniors v Penarol	86-77
05/05/22	Boca Juniors v Penarol	68-75
01/05/22	Penarol v Boca Juniors	80-81

Boca Juniorslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
22/10/24	A	Riachuelo	80-75
19/10/24	A	Quimsa	67-97
18/10/24	A	Olimpico	74-93
15/10/24	H	Union De Santa Fe	99-72
12/10/24	H	Zarate	88-61
08/10/24	A	Atenas	81-69
20/07/24	H	Instituto de Cordoba	79-72
17/07/24	A	Instituto de Cordoba	80-77
13/07/24	H	Instituto de Cordoba	70-66
12/07/24	H	Instituto de Cordoba	77-68

Penarollast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
24/10/24	A	Zarate	82-87
22/10/24	A	Argentino	85-83
15/10/24	H	Obera TC	78-97
12/10/24	A	Platense	75-72
09/10/24	A	Ferro	82-84 OT
19/06/24	A	Quimsa	60-91
16/06/24	H	Quimsa	65-64
14/06/24	H	Quimsa	75-83
11/06/24	A	Quimsa	85-70
09/06/24	A	Quimsa	47-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boca Juniors

Liga A 2024-25

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLLW	67%
Home	WW	100%
Away	WLLW	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	6	2	4
Win %	67%	100%	50%
Points / game	81.5	93.5	75.5
Allowed / game	77.8	66.5	83.5
Point differential	+3.7	+27.0	-8.0
Avg total	159.3	160.0	159.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	50%	100%	25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Penarol

Liga A 2024-25

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWLWL	40%
Home	L	0%
Away	LWWL	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	5	1	4
Win %	40%	0%	50%
Points / game	80.4	78.0	81.0
Allowed / game	84.6	97.0	81.5
Point differential	-4.2	-19.0	-0.5
Avg total	165.0	175.0	162.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (4)	-	50% (4)
Overtime %	20%	0%	25%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Quimsa	2	2	0	100%	100.0	76.0	+24.0
2	Obera TC	3	3	0	100%	83.0	72.3	+10.7
3	Instituto de Cordoba	5	4	1	80%	84.8	72.4	+12.4
4	Union De Santa Fe	5	4	1	80%	77.8	79.4	-1.6
5	Independiente de Oliva	4	3	1	75%	86.5	80.8	+5.8
6	Boca Juniors	6	4	2	67%	81.5	77.8	+3.7
7	Obras Sanitarias	3	2	1	67%	89.3	88.0	+1.3
8	Ferro	3	2	1	67%	80.3	80.7	-0.3
9	Riachuelo	2	1	1	50%	87.0	69.0	+18.0
10	San Lorenzo	2	1	1	50%	70.5	71.0	-0.5
11	Olimpico	4	2	2	50%	81.8	90.8	-9.0
12	Penarol	5	2	3	40%	80.4	84.6	-4.2
13	Zarate	3	1	2	33%	73.0	80.7	-7.7
14	Gimnasia	4	1	3	25%	83.0	82.0	+1.0
15	Regatas	4	1	3	25%	77.8	92.0	-14.2
16	Argentino	3	0	3	0%	72.3	76.7	-4.3
17	Platense	4	0	4	0%	85.2	89.8	-4.5
18	La Union	1	0	1	0%	79.0	85.0	-6.0
19	Atenas	2	0	2	0%	71.5	84.0	-12.5
20	San Martin	1	0	1	0%	54.0	76.0	-22.0

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Boca Juniors	24	20	20	19	83
Penarol	15	26	20	20	81

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Boca Juniors vs Penarol Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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