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Boca Juniors vs Penarol Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 13 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 21:00
Scheduled
Position#9
Record3-3
FormLLLWW
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game85.0
vs
Position#2
Record4-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game74.6
ArgentinaLiga A· Estadio Luis Conde
Other2026-27
Meetings · Boca Juniors v Penarol
13 Mar 2027
BOCA v PENA
upcoming
17 Mar 2026
BOCA86
PENA70
25 Oct 2024
BOCA83
PENA81
29 Apr 2024
BOCA87
PENA83
25 Apr 2023
BOCA98
PENA84
23 Apr 2023
BOCA94
PENA78
16 Apr 2023
BOCA92
PENA82
07 May 2022
BOCA86
PENA77
05 May 2022
BOCA68
PENA75
10 Feb 2022
BOCA69
PENA85
07 Jan 2021
BOCA76
PENA71
28 Nov 2019
BOCA77
PENA74
30 Sep 2019
BOCA74
PENA69
12 Dec 2018
BOCA79
PENA77
04 Feb 2018
BOCA71
PENA76
17 Apr 2017
BOCA82
PENA77
07 Oct 2016
BOCA73
PENA85
14 Dec 2015
BOCA96
PENA79
28 Oct 2015
BOCA90
PENA62
06 Jan 2015
BOCA80
PENA69
19 Oct 2014
BOCA81
PENA83
13 May 2014
BOCA73
PENA83
01 Mar 2014
BOCA77
PENA72
29 Oct 2013
BOCA84
PENA75
02 Mar 2013
BOCA83
PENA70
18 Oct 2012
BOCA65
PENA73
29 Jan 2012
BOCA86
PENA91
05 Oct 2011
BOCA65
PENA73
02 Mar 2011
BOCA59
PENA72
13 Oct 2010
BOCA61
PENA87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boca Juniors win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boca JuniorsArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJuniors
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
L
76-88
76
88
-12
63avg 80
A23/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
78-91
78
91
-13
68avg 80
A26/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
W
99-92
99
92
+7
92avg 80
H30/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
83-94
83
94
-11
76avg 80
H31/05
Liga A
Obera TC
#17
W
96-73
96
73
+23
91avg 80
H08/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
96-105
96
105
-9
95avg 80
A11/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#6
L
80-93
80
93
-13
73avg 80
A13/10
Liga A
Argentino
#7
L
82-84
82
84
-2
71avg 80
A22/10
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#11
W
80-72
80
72
+8
75avg 80
A24/10
Liga A
Regatas
#15
W
95-83
95
83
+12
90avg 80
H28/10
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-22
21-20
20-23
21-23
20-27
18-25
20-20
20-19
30-17
21-21
22-29
26-25
22-25
20-27
22-20
19-22
26-21
30-11
21-21
19-20
33-23
21-26
21-31
21-25
17-35
17-20
29-19
17-19
24-25
19-21
17-12
22-26
21-15
23-28
21-12
15-17
32-14
23-20
21-25
19-24
174.0Avg total
86.5Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)88.285.0173.2+3.250%
Season at home (2)95.578.0173.5+17.5100%
Season away (4)84.588.5173.0-4.025%
Last 10 (10)86.587.5174.0-1.040%
Last 5 (5)86.687.4174.0-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)96.0105.0201.0-9.00%
vs Similar ◀ (16)83.982.5166.4+1.456%
vs Weaker (13)87.077.5164.5+9.5100%
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Ferro
#6
W
87-80
87
80
+7
85avg 76
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
91-97
91
97
-6
81avg 76
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
78-80
78
80
-2
68avg 76
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
W
87-75
87
75
+12
83avg 76
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
68-84
68
84
-16
61avg 76
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#5
W
62-57
62
57
+5
54avg 76
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
84-77
84
77
+7
77avg 76
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#16
W
92-85
92
85
+7
87avg 76
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
95-76
95
76
+19
86avg 76
H28/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
73-78
73
78
-5
no box
A31/10
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-25
22-22
23-18
17-15
30-29
13-24
21-17
27-27
25-21
18-29
20-12
15-18
22-20
18-23
25-21
22-11
19-22
23-26
10-22
16-14
17-14
13-15
14-6
18-22
18-26
27-17
26-23
13-11
28-22
17-22
26-18
21-23
23-11
25-21
24-25
23-19
19-15
11-23
20-21
23-19
160.6Avg total
81.7Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)81.274.6155.8+6.680%
Season at home (2)78.566.5145.0+12.0100%
Season away (3)83.080.0163.0+3.067%
Last 10 (10)81.778.9160.6+2.860%
Last 5 (5)81.274.6155.8+6.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)71.581.0152.5-9.550%
vs Similar ◀ (22)81.680.1161.7+1.550%
vs Weaker (6)84.781.8166.5+2.850%
This opponent (Boca Juniors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.5+1.5Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
Boca JuniorsPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boca JuniorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quimsa
#3
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A23/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
38-52
38
52
-14
A26/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
W
51-38
51
38
+13
H30/05
Liga A
Quimsa
#3
L
42-52
42
52
-10
H31/05
Liga A
Obera TC
#17
W
56-32
56
32
+24
H08/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
W
54-49
54
49
+5
A11/10
Liga A
Olimpico
#6
L
34-55
34
55
-21
A13/10
Liga A
Argentino
#7
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A22/10
Liga A
Racing de Chivilcoy
#11
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A24/10
Liga A
Regatas
#15
W
55-34
55
34
+21
H28/10
Liga A
89.5Avg total
45.2Scored
44.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.040.484.4+3.563%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.139.284.3+5.969%-
Last 30 away (14)42.641.984.5+0.857%-
Last 10 (10)45.244.389.5+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)46.045.491.4+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)54.049.0103.0+5.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)42.341.884.1+0.650%-
vs Weaker (13)45.238.283.4+7.177%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ferro
#6
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H20/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A24/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A26/04
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H01/05
Liga A
Ferro
#6
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H03/05
Liga A
Gimnasia
#5
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H30/09
Liga A
Lanus
#12
W
45-43
45
43
+2
A14/10
Liga A
San Lorenzo
#16
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A17/10
Liga A
San Martin
#18
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H28/10
Liga A
Quimsa
#1
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A31/10
Liga A
84.0Avg total
41.3Scored
42.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.942.282.1-2.340%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.039.877.8-1.838%-
Last 30 away (17)41.444.085.4-2.641%-
Last 10 (10)41.342.784.0-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)39.637.276.8+2.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.043.086.0+0.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)39.442.381.7-2.936%-
vs Weaker (6)40.841.782.5-0.850%-
This opponent (Boca Juniors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Boca Juniorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boca Juniors: 86.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.318.9
56.8%
54.4%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.211.1
34.5%
32.6%33.3
🏀 Free throws20.115.4
76.6%
72.7%15.4
They take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.4 points a game
47%
34%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.9
56.2%
54.4%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.08.4
32.3%
32.6%25.2
🏀 Free throws25.617.5
68.4%
72.7%17.5
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boca Juniors
WWLLLWLWLL
Penarol
LWWWWLWLLW
#9
League position
#2
-1.3
Net rating
+4.1
115.8
Offensive rating
113.4
117.2
Defensive rating
109.3
54.3%
Effective FG%
52.9%
55.2%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.42
34.5%
3-point %
32.3%
53.3%
Assist %
48.4%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.8 · 113.4Defence117.2 · 109.3Shooting54.3% · 52.9%3-point %34.5% · 32.3%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.42Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Boca Juniors   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Boca Juniors wins
1
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
18/03/26Boca Juniors v Penarol86-70
07/11/25Penarol v Boca Juniors89-78
21/03/25Penarol v Boca Juniors64-72
26/10/24Boca Juniors v Penarol83-81
30/04/24Boca Juniors v Penarol87-83
15/10/23Penarol v Boca Juniors72-92
29/04/23Penarol v Boca Juniors110-114 OT
26/04/23Boca Juniors v Penarol98-84
23/04/23Boca Juniors v Penarol94-78
16/04/23Boca Juniors v Penarol92-82
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/10/26HRegatas95-83
24/10/26ARacing de Chivilcoy80-72
22/10/26AArgentino82-84
13/10/26AOlimpico80-93
11/10/26AQuimsa96-105
08/10/26HObera TC96-73
31/05/26HQuimsa83-94
30/05/26HQuimsa99-92
26/05/26AQuimsa78-91
23/05/26AQuimsa76-88
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26AQuimsa73-78
28/10/26HSan Martin95-76
17/10/26ASan Lorenzo92-85
14/10/26ALanus84-77
30/09/26HGimnasia62-57
03/05/26HFerro68-84
01/05/26HFerro87-75
26/04/26AFerro78-80
24/04/26AFerro91-97
20/04/26HFerro87-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boca Juniors
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%100%25%
Points / game88.295.584.5
Allowed / game85.078.088.5
Point differential+3.2+17.5-4.0
Avg total173.2173.5173.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Penarol
Liga A 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL80%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game81.278.583.0
Allowed / game74.666.580.0
Point differential+6.6+12.0+3.0
Avg total155.8145.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Quimsa660100%84.373.8+10.5
2 Penarol54180%81.274.6+6.6
3 Atenas43175%84.881.2+3.5
4 Instituto de Cordoba43175%79.078.2+0.8
5 Gimnasia75271%78.975.1+3.7
6 Olimpico53260%88.683.8+4.8
7 Argentino53260%80.678.8+1.8
8 Independiente de Oliva21150%100.095.0+5.0
9 Boca Juniors63350%88.285.0+3.2
10 Platense63350%80.380.3+0.0
11 Racing de Chivilcoy63350%80.382.5-2.2
12 Lanus83538%75.879.0-3.2
13 La Union31233%81.384.0-2.7
14 Ferro62433%82.085.5-3.5
15 Regatas41325%74.878.2-3.5
16 San Lorenzo41325%76.280.8-4.5
17 Obera TC51420%73.481.2-7.8
18 San Martin6060%84.895.2-10.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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