PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Brasilia vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 28 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 54-69
13-24 9-17 12-9 20-19
Position#6
Record19-16
FormLLLLL
Points / game80.6
Allowed / game79.9
vs
Position#13
Record14-21
FormLLWWW
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game79.2
BrazilNBB· Arena BRB Nilson Nelson
Other2024-25
Meetings · Brasilia v Sao Paulo
30 Apr 2025
BRAS86
SAO 81
28 Apr 2025
BRAS54
SAO 69
21 Dec 2024
BRAS83
SAO 85
23 Dec 2023
BRAS63
SAO 72
17 Dec 2022
BRAS89
SAO 96
25 Jan 2022
BRAS86
SAO 90
11 Dec 2020
BRAS80
SAO 104
13 Feb 2020
BRAS73
SAO 96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brasilia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BrasiliaBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrasilia
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
95-71
95
71
+24
98avg 71
H14/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
W
72-70
72
70
+2
67avg 71
H26/02
NBB
Pato
#14
L
80-98
80
98
-18
44avg 71
A14/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
94-71
94
71
+23
88avg 71
H17/03
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
50avg 71
H01/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
77-79
77
79
-2
69avg 71
H05/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
79-88
79
88
-9
73avg 71
H08/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
69-81
69
81
-12
57avg 71
A17/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
79-88
79
88
-9
71avg 71
A19/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
62-66
62
66
-4
51avg 71
A24/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-16
24-22
27-20
19-13
19-21
21-22
18-14
14-13
15-25
24-22
19-28
22-23
24-14
22-18
24-22
24-17
25-20
13-29
9-11
16-17
11-20
29-20
26-19
11-20
15-20
12-23
26-23
26-22
13-27
18-21
27-15
11-18
27-17
21-26
10-31
21-14
15-17
16-16
16-16
15-17
155.9Avg total
77.0Scored
78.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)80.679.9160.5+0.754%
Season at home (17)81.878.6160.4+3.171%
Season away (18)79.581.2160.7-1.739%
Last 10 (10)77.078.9155.9-1.930%
Last 5 (5)73.280.4153.6-7.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)79.285.2164.5-6.025%
vs Similar ◀ (18)77.879.6157.4-1.844%
vs Weaker (7)81.472.7154.1+8.786%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
L
75-79
75
79
-4
75avg 70
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
78-88
78
88
-10
65avg 70
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
58avg 70
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 70
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 70
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
86-105
86
105
-19
84avg 70
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
85-86
85
86
-1
84avg 70
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
W
71-67
71
67
+4
64avg 70
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
88-79
88
79
+9
86avg 70
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
66-62
66
62
+4
60avg 70
H24/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-18
18-15
23-32
14-14
15-23
16-18
17-31
30-16
18-20
16-27
17-15
14-14
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
18-17
23-28
17-30
28-30
19-25
25-27
22-16
19-18
16-11
11-16
25-16
19-24
17-27
26-21
31-10
14-21
17-15
16-16
16-16
17-15
155.9Avg total
75.3Scored
80.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)76.179.2155.3-3.140%
Season at home (18)75.875.9151.8-0.156%
Season away (17)76.382.6158.9-6.424%
Last 10 (10)75.380.6155.9-5.330%
Last 5 (5)79.279.8159.0-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)71.280.0151.2-8.822%
vs Similar ◀ (15)76.180.2156.3-4.133%
vs Weaker (5)78.078.4156.4-0.440%
This opponent (Brasilia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: -3.4-3.4Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +1.1+1.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: -3.4-3.4Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +1.1+1.1
BrasiliaSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H14/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H26/02
NBB
Pato
#14
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A14/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H17/03
NBB
Minas
#1
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H01/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H05/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H08/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A17/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A19/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A24/04
NBB
80.5Avg total
38.9Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.339.679.9+0.740%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.440.481.8+1.044%-
Last 30 away (14)39.138.677.7+0.436%-
Last 10 (10)38.941.680.5-2.730%-
Last 5 (5)35.441.476.8-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)37.543.581.0-6.025%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)39.440.179.6-0.733%-
vs Weaker (7)43.436.079.4+7.457%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H24/04
NBB
78.2Avg total
36.4Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.439.776.1-3.337%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.937.973.8-2.140%-
Last 30 away (15)36.941.578.3-4.633%-
Last 10 (10)36.441.878.2-5.420%-
Last 5 (5)37.640.678.2-3.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)33.237.871.0-4.622%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)37.739.977.6-2.347%-
vs Weaker (5)37.843.281.0-5.420%-
This opponent (Brasilia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 76.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀45%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.014.6
50.3%
50.9%29.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.511.5
36.5%
33.0%34.5
🏀 Free throws17.112.5
73.1%
72.7%12.5
They take 60.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 74.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.218.2
51.7%
50.9%36.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.87.9
30.6%
33.0%23.7
🏀 Free throws20.614.2
68.9%
72.7%14.2
They take 61.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Brasilia
LLLLLLWLWW
Sao Paulo
WWWLLLLLLL
#6
League position
#13
-2.4
Net rating
-7.1
108.1
Offensive rating
99.9
110.5
Defensive rating
107.0
52.6%
Effective FG%
49.3%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
17.5%
Turnover %
16.8%
27.2%
Off. rebound %
22.7%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.34
36.5%
3-point %
30.6%
62.8%
Assist %
72.8%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence108.1 · 99.9Defence110.5 · 107.0Shooting52.6% · 49.3%3-point %36.5% · 30.6%Ball care17.5% · 16.8%Off. rebounds27.2% · 22.7%Free throws0.28 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Brasilia   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Brasilia wins
10
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
24/04/25Sao Paulo v Brasilia66-62
19/04/25Sao Paulo v Brasilia88-79
21/12/24Brasilia v Sao Paulo83-85
02/04/24Sao Paulo v Brasilia93-84
23/12/23Brasilia v Sao Paulo63-72
10/03/23Sao Paulo v Brasilia88-72
17/12/22Brasilia v Sao Paulo89-96
25/01/22Brasilia v Sao Paulo86-90 OT
29/10/21Sao Paulo v Brasilia85-66
10/03/21Sao Paulo v Brasilia92-46
Brasilialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/04/25ASao Paulo62-66
19/04/25ASao Paulo79-88
17/04/25APaulistano69-81
08/04/25HFlamengo79-88
05/04/25HVasco77-79
01/04/25HMinas63-77
17/03/25HBotafogo94-71
14/03/25APato80-98
26/02/25HPinheiros72-70
14/02/25HUniao Corinthians95-71
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/04/25HBrasilia66-62
19/04/25HBrasilia88-79
12/04/25HMinas71-67
05/04/25ABotafogo85-86
04/04/25AFlamengo86-105
28/03/25HPato65-69
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
13/03/25ACaxias do Sul65-76
08/03/25AVasco78-88
04/03/25HCearense75-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brasilia
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL54%
HomeWWLLL71%
AwayWLLLL39%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351718
Win %54%71%39%
Points / game80.681.879.5
Allowed / game79.978.681.2
Point differential+0.7+3.1-1.7
Avg total160.5160.4160.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%18%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (14)78% (9)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW40%
HomeLLWWW56%
AwayLLLLL24%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351817
Win %40%56%24%
Points / game76.175.876.3
Allowed / game79.275.982.6
Point differential-3.1-0.1-6.4
Avg total155.3151.8158.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%22%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)62% (8)38% (8)
Overtime %3%0%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3530586%82.370.9+11.4
2 Flamengo3627975%84.875.5+9.3
3 Franca3526974%84.976.1+8.9
4 Pinheiros37211657%76.674.3+2.3
5 Brasilia35191654%80.679.9+0.7
6 Vasco37201754%77.176.4+0.6
7 Bauru37201754%78.378.0+0.2
8 Uniao Corinthians36191753%78.980.6-1.7
9 Corinthians Paulista36181850%81.880.4+1.4
10 Sao Jose37181949%78.378.6-0.3
11 Paulistano37172046%77.475.9+1.4
12 Unifacisa37172046%74.975.3-0.5
13 Sao Paulo35142140%76.179.2-3.1
14 Pato35132237%81.883.7-1.9
15 Caxias do Sul36122433%73.881.4-7.6
16 Mogi35112431%74.481.3-6.9
17 Cearense34102429%72.178.0-5.9
18 Botafogo34102429%73.182.1-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Brasilia139122054
Sao Paulo241791969
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.