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Sao Paulo vs Brasilia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 19 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 88-79
17-27 26-21 31-10 14-21
Position#13
Record12-21
FormLLLLW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game79.7
vs
Position#6
Record19-14
FormWLLLL
Points / game81.2
Allowed / game80.1
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Brasilia
03 May 2025
SAO 78
BRAS77
24 Apr 2025
SAO 66
BRAS62
19 Apr 2025
SAO 88
BRAS79
02 Apr 2024
SAO 93
BRAS84
10 Mar 2023
SAO 88
BRAS72
29 Oct 2021
SAO 85
BRAS66
10 Mar 2021
SAO 92
BRAS46
07 Nov 2019
SAO 81
BRAS69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Brasilia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
L
71-80
71
80
-9
71avg 72
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
63avg 72
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
L
75-79
75
79
-4
75avg 72
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
78-88
78
88
-10
65avg 72
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
58avg 72
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 72
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 72
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
86-105
86
105
-19
84avg 72
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
85-86
85
86
-1
84avg 72
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
W
71-67
71
67
+4
64avg 72
H12/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-16
15-24
26-27
15-13
9-9
28-18
20-17
11-22
20-18
18-15
23-32
14-14
15-23
16-18
17-31
30-16
18-20
16-27
17-15
14-14
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
18-17
23-28
17-30
28-30
19-25
25-27
22-16
19-18
16-11
11-16
25-16
19-24
154.9Avg total
73.8Scored
81.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)76.079.7155.7-3.736%
Season at home (16)75.776.6152.3-0.950%
Season away (17)76.382.6158.9-6.424%
Last 10 (10)73.881.1154.9-7.320%
Last 5 (5)76.284.4160.6-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)71.280.0151.2-8.822%
vs Similar ◀ (14)76.681.9158.5-5.229%
vs Weaker (6)77.378.3155.7-1.033%
This opponent (Brasilia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BrasiliaBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrasilia
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
84-62
84
62
+22
73avg 71
A07/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
83-77
83
77
+6
81avg 71
H12/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
95-71
95
71
+24
98avg 71
H14/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
W
72-70
72
70
+2
67avg 71
H26/02
NBB
Pato
#14
L
80-98
80
98
-18
44avg 71
A14/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
94-71
94
71
+23
88avg 71
H17/03
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
50avg 71
H01/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
77-79
77
79
-2
69avg 71
H05/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
79-88
79
88
-9
73avg 71
H08/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
69-81
69
81
-12
57avg 71
A17/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-21
14-9
29-15
15-17
21-20
20-14
12-21
30-22
25-16
24-22
27-20
19-13
19-21
21-22
18-14
14-13
15-25
24-22
19-28
22-23
24-14
22-18
24-22
24-17
25-20
13-29
9-11
16-17
11-20
29-20
26-19
11-20
15-20
12-23
26-23
26-22
13-27
18-21
27-15
11-18
157.0Avg total
79.6Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)81.280.1161.3+1.158%
Season at home (17)81.878.6160.4+3.171%
Season away (16)80.681.7162.3-1.144%
Last 10 (10)79.677.4157.0+2.250%
Last 5 (5)76.479.2155.6-2.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)79.285.2164.5-6.025%
vs Similar ◀ (18)80.780.7161.4+0.056%
vs Weaker (7)81.472.7154.1+8.786%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +0.6+0.6
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.3-1.3Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -3.8-3.8Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +0.6+0.6
Sao PauloBrasilia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A08/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H13/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H04/03
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A08/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H12/04
NBB
76.1Avg total
35.5Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.639.676.3-3.037%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.338.374.6-2.036%-
Last 30 away (16)36.940.877.8-3.938%-
Last 10 (10)35.540.676.1-5.120%-
Last 5 (5)37.043.680.6-6.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)33.237.871.0-4.622%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)38.240.478.6-2.243%-
vs Weaker (6)37.841.279.0-3.333%-
This opponent (Brasilia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
40-30
40
30
+10
A07/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H12/02
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H14/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H26/02
NBB
Pato
#14
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A14/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H17/03
NBB
Minas
#1
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H01/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H05/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H08/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A17/04
NBB
79.5Avg total
39.1Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.039.980.9+1.140%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.440.481.8+1.044%-
Last 30 away (14)40.539.479.9+1.136%-
Last 10 (10)39.140.479.5-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)36.442.478.8-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)37.543.581.0-6.025%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)40.640.781.2-0.133%-
vs Weaker (7)43.436.079.4+7.457%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 72.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.017.5
50.0%
50.9%35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.87.8
31.5%
33.0%23.4
🏀 Free throws20.314.2
70.0%
72.7%14.2
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 79.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.015.5
50.0%
50.9%31.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.111.3
37.5%
33.0%33.9
🏀 Free throws18.114.1
77.9%
72.7%14.1
They take 61.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
WLLLLLLLWL
Brasilia
LLLLWLWWWW
#13
League position
#6
-10.4
Net rating
+3.9
98.1
Offensive rating
110.9
108.6
Defensive rating
106.9
48.8%
Effective FG%
53.1%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.8%
17.8%
Turnover %
16.3%
22.3%
Off. rebound %
25.9%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.30
31.5%
3-point %
37.5%
73.1%
Assist %
63.1%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence98.1 · 110.9Defence108.6 · 106.9Shooting48.8% · 53.1%3-point %31.5% · 37.5%Ball care17.8% · 16.3%Off. rebounds22.3% · 25.9%Free throws0.34 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)20% · 50%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Brasilia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Sao Paulo wins
0
Brasilia wins
DateGameScore
21/12/24Brasilia v Sao Paulo83-85
02/04/24Sao Paulo v Brasilia93-84
23/12/23Brasilia v Sao Paulo63-72
10/03/23Sao Paulo v Brasilia88-72
17/12/22Brasilia v Sao Paulo89-96
25/01/22Brasilia v Sao Paulo86-90 OT
29/10/21Sao Paulo v Brasilia85-66
10/03/21Sao Paulo v Brasilia92-46
11/12/20Brasilia v Sao Paulo80-104
13/02/20Brasilia v Sao Paulo73-96
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/04/25HMinas71-67
05/04/25ABotafogo85-86
04/04/25AFlamengo86-105
28/03/25HPato65-69
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
13/03/25ACaxias do Sul65-76
08/03/25AVasco78-88
04/03/25HCearense75-79
13/02/25HUnifacisa68-66
08/02/25APinheiros71-80
Brasilialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/04/25APaulistano69-81
08/04/25HFlamengo79-88
05/04/25HVasco77-79
01/04/25HMinas63-77
17/03/25HBotafogo94-71
14/03/25APato80-98
26/02/25HPinheiros72-70
14/02/25HUniao Corinthians95-71
12/02/25HCaxias do Sul83-77
07/02/25ACearense84-62

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW36%
HomeLWLLW50%
AwayLLLLL24%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331617
Win %36%50%24%
Points / game76.075.776.3
Allowed / game79.776.682.6
Point differential-3.7-0.9-6.4
Avg total155.7152.3158.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (15)57% (7)38% (8)
Overtime %3%0%6%
Brasilia
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL58%
HomeWWLLL71%
AwayLLWLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %58%71%44%
Points / game81.281.880.6
Allowed / game80.178.681.7
Point differential+1.1+3.1-1.1
Avg total161.3160.4162.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%18%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won69% (13)78% (9)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3429585%82.270.9+11.3
2 Flamengo3426876%84.776.1+8.6
3 Franca3425974%84.675.6+9.0
4 Brasilia33191458%81.280.1+1.1
5 Bauru33191458%78.678.3+0.3
6 Pinheiros34191556%76.874.7+2.1
7 Vasco34181653%76.476.1+0.3
8 Uniao Corinthians34181653%78.180.4-2.4
9 Corinthians Paulista34171750%81.679.7+2.0
10 Sao Jose34171750%78.278.1+0.1
11 Unifacisa34161847%75.375.4-0.1
12 Paulistano34151944%77.876.2+1.6
13 Pato34132138%81.583.4-1.9
14 Sao Paulo33122136%76.079.7-3.7
15 Mogi34112332%74.581.2-6.7
16 Caxias do Sul34112332%74.481.1-6.8
17 Cearense34102429%72.178.0-5.9
18 Botafogo3392427%72.882.0-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo1726311488
Brasilia2721102179
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