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ChelSU Kostanay vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 76-86
19-20 17-18 20-21 20-27
Position#8
Record13-10
FormLLWLL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game79.7
vs
Aktobe 🏆
Kazakhstan
Position#4
Record19-4
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game65.6
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · ChelSU Kostanay v Aktobe
30 Apr 2026
CHEL69
AKTO69
12 Mar 2026
CHEL76
AKTO86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

ChelSU Kostanay winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aktobe winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ChelSU KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKostanay
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
80-59
80
59
+21
82avg 67
A25/11
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
77-73
77
73
+4
no box
A18/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
62-55
62
55
+7
no box
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
71-69
71
69
+2
66avg 67
A20/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
83-68
83
68
+15
85avg 67
H21/01
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
68-85
68
85
-17
61avg 67
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
99-103
99
103
-4
90avg 67
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
93-88
93
88
+5
82avg 67
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
78-105
78
105
-27
73avg 67
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
56-85
56
85
-29
43avg 67
A11/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-12
19-13
11-19
26-15
16-17
12-19
22-17
27-20
18-12
15-20
16-16
13-7
19-15
16-15
18-20
18-19
16-21
26-13
32-19
9-15
15-24
23-16
16-22
14-23
23-24
30-25
27-28
19-26
24-27
22-16
16-26
31-19
14-21
17-38
17-30
30-16
13-20
18-21
8-22
17-22
155.7Avg total
76.7Scored
79.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)76.479.7156.1-3.357%
Season at home (12)82.381.0163.3+1.367%
Season away (11)69.978.3148.2-8.445%
Last 10 (10)76.779.0155.7-2.360%
Last 5 (5)78.893.2172.0-14.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)70.588.9159.4-18.313%
vs Similar (7)74.776.3151.0-1.671%
vs Weaker (8)72.452.9125.2+19.5100%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AktobeKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAktobe
Date
Competition
Karaganda
#7
W
82-79 OT
82
79
+3
no box
A17/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
112-52
112
52
+60
no box
H18/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
86-52
86
52
+34
no box
A19/01
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
57-81
57
81
-24
46avg 76
H11/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
58-66
58
66
-8
44avg 76
H12/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
54-61
54
61
-7
50avg 76
A13/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
W
77-70
77
70
+7
74avg 76
A14/02
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
95-46
95
46
+49
93avg 76
H09/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
110-61
110
61
+49
no box
A10/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
85-56
85
56
+29
80avg 76
H11/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-13
14-22
15-15
29-26
35-15
27-2
26-23
24-12
16-17
28-13
23-8
19-14
14-23
12-16
18-25
13-17
9-19
10-10
28-17
11-20
13-14
18-20
15-17
8-10
15-20
18-20
22-20
22-10
32-8
19-13
23-8
21-17
27-15
23-22
32-6
28-18
20-13
21-18
22-8
22-17
144.0Avg total
81.6Scored
62.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)83.765.6149.3+18.283%
Season at home (12)84.864.4149.2+20.483%
Season away (11)82.566.8149.4+15.782%
Last 10 (10)81.662.4144.0+19.270%
Last 5 (5)84.258.8143.0+25.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)53.061.8114.8-8.818%
vs Similar (2)93.086.5179.5+6.5100%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)88.564.4152.9+24.288%
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +4.2+4.2Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: +7.7+7.7Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +3.6+3.6
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +4.2+4.2Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: +7.7+7.7Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +3.6+3.6
ChelSU KostanayAktobe
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ChelSU KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
43-25
43
25
+18
A25/11
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A18/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A20/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H21/01
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H05/03
Higher League
Aktobe
#4
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A11/03
Higher League
76.9Avg total
38.0Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)36.441.577.9-5.145%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.143.582.6-4.553%-
Last 30 away (14)33.539.372.8-5.836%-
Last 10 (10)38.038.976.9-0.960%-
Last 5 (5)39.846.486.2-6.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)33.349.783.0-16.520%-
vs Similar (7)37.138.075.1-0.943%-
vs Weaker (7)42.327.369.6+15.0100%-
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AktobeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Karaganda
#7
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A17/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
62-17
62
17
+45
H18/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
44-30
44
30
+14
A19/01
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
26-39
26
39
-13
H11/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
19-29
19
29
-10
H12/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A13/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/02
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
51-21
51
21
+30
H09/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
50-37
50
37
+13
A10/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H11/03
Higher League
70.2Avg total
38.9Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (28)40.132.472.5+7.764%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.430.971.3+9.469%-
Last 30 away (12)39.834.474.2+5.358%-
Last 10 (10)38.931.370.2+7.650%-
Last 5 (5)41.232.673.8+8.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)30.936.066.9-5.122%-
vs Similar (2)42.541.083.5+1.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)44.729.574.2+15.288%-
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
ChelSU Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

ChelSU Kostanay: 78.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.421.0
51.9%
49.5%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.96.7
27.0%
28.5%20.1
🏀 Free throws23.616.1
68.5%
63.9%16.1
They take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aktobetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aktobe: 90.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.0 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.526.5
62.4%
49.5%53.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.58.5
26.2%
28.5%25.5
🏀 Free throws18.011.5
63.9%
63.9%11.5
They take 75.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 7/2 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
ChelSU Kostanay
LLWLLWWWWW
Aktobe
WWWWLLLWWW
#8
League position
#4
-10.0
Net rating
+51.0
99.6
Offensive rating
117.7
109.6
Defensive rating
66.7
47.6%
Effective FG%
52.3%
49.7%
Opp. effective FG%
33.7%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.24
27.0%
3-point %
26.2%
59.8%
Assist %
60.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence99.6 · 117.7Defence109.6 · 66.7Shooting47.6% · 52.3%3-point %27.0% · 26.2%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.36 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ ChelSU Kostanay   ■ Aktobe
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
ChelSU Kostanay wins
1
Aktobe wins
DateGameScore
11/03/26Aktobe v ChelSU Kostanay85-56
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26AAktobe56-85
05/03/26HBC Almaty 278-105
04/03/26ACHAMP1ON93-88
03/03/26HBC Almaty 299-103
02/03/26ACHAMP1ON68-85
21/01/26HAiRom83-68
20/01/26AArlans71-69
19/01/26HAiRom62-55
18/01/26AArlans77-73
25/11/25AKaspiy Aktau 280-59
Aktobelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HChelSU Kostanay85-56
10/03/26ATobol Kostanay 2110-61
09/03/26HTobol Kostanay 295-46
14/02/26AShymkent77-70
13/02/26ATuran54-61
12/02/26HShymkent58-66
11/02/26HTuran57-81
19/01/26APavlodar86-52
18/01/26HPavlodar112-52
17/01/26AKaraganda82-79 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

ChelSU Kostanay
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL57%
HomeWWWLL67%
AwayWWLWL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %57%67%45%
Points / game76.482.369.9
Allowed / game79.781.078.3
Point differential-3.3+1.3-8.4
Avg total156.1163.3148.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%33%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)75% (4)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Aktobe
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW83%
HomeWLLWW83%
AwayWWLWW82%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %83%83%82%
Points / game83.784.882.5
Allowed / game65.664.466.8
Point differential+18.2+20.4+15.7
Avg total149.3149.2149.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%58%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (1)100% (3)
Overtime %4%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan24240100%89.760.0+29.7
2 Shymkent2421388%95.268.1+27.2
3 Aktobe2319483%83.765.6+18.2
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2015575%82.861.0+21.8
5 Atyrau 22115671%77.768.9+8.9
6 BC Almaty 22012860%80.873.3+7.4
7 ChelSU Kostanay23131057%76.479.7-3.3
8 CHAMP1ON20101050%73.872.8+0.9
9 Karaganda2091145%80.278.0+2.2
10 Tigers-KazATU1971237%66.977.2-10.3
11 Arlans2371630%74.981.7-6.9
12 AiRom2341917%63.381.9-18.7
13 Tobol Kostanay 22442017%68.483.1-14.8
14 Pavlodar2021810%53.389.8-36.5
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2221215%53.083.6-30.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
ChelSU Kostanay1917202076
Aktobe2018212786
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