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Aktobe vs ChelSU Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 85-56
20-13 21-18 22-8 22-17
Position#4
Record18-4
FormLLWWW
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game66.0
Aktobe 🏆
Kazakhstan
vs
Position#8
Record13-9
FormWLLWL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game79.5
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Aktobe v ChelSU Kostanay
29 Apr 2026
AKTO83
CHEL80
11 Mar 2026
AKTO85
CHEL56
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aktobe winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
ChelSU Kostanay winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AktobeKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAktobe
Date
Competition
Karaganda
#7
W
95-58
95
58
+37
no box
H16/01
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
W
82-79 OT
82
79
+3
no box
A17/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
112-52
112
52
+60
no box
H18/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
86-52
86
52
+34
no box
A19/01
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
57-81
57
81
-24
46avg 75
H11/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
58-66
58
66
-8
44avg 75
H12/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
54-61
54
61
-7
50avg 75
A13/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
W
77-70
77
70
+7
74avg 75
A14/02
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
95-46
95
46
+49
93avg 75
H09/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
110-61
110
61
+49
no box
A10/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-10
32-11
22-21
22-16
18-13
14-22
15-15
29-26
35-15
27-2
26-23
24-12
16-17
28-13
23-8
19-14
14-23
12-16
18-25
13-17
9-19
10-10
28-17
11-20
13-14
18-20
15-17
8-10
15-20
18-20
22-20
22-10
32-8
19-13
23-8
21-17
27-15
23-22
32-6
28-18
145.2Avg total
82.6Scored
62.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)83.766.0149.7+17.782%
Season at home (11)84.865.2150.0+19.682%
Season away (11)82.566.8149.4+15.782%
Last 10 (10)82.662.6145.2+20.070%
Last 5 (5)78.860.8139.6+18.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)54.564.3118.8-9.817%
vs Similar (2)93.086.5179.5+6.5100%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)88.864.9153.6+23.988%
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKostanay
Date
Competition
Atyrau 2
#6
W
95-72
95
72
+23
92avg 68
H24/11
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
80-59
80
59
+21
82avg 68
A25/11
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
77-73
77
73
+4
no box
A18/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
62-55
62
55
+7
no box
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
71-69
71
69
+2
66avg 68
A20/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
83-68
83
68
+15
85avg 68
H21/01
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
68-85
68
85
-17
61avg 68
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
99-103
99
103
-4
90avg 68
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
93-88
93
88
+5
82avg 68
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
78-105
78
105
-27
73avg 68
H05/03
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-15
26-29
19-17
28-11
24-12
19-13
11-19
26-15
16-17
12-19
22-17
27-20
18-12
15-20
16-16
13-7
19-15
16-15
18-20
18-19
16-21
26-13
32-19
9-15
15-24
23-16
16-22
14-23
23-24
30-25
27-28
19-26
24-27
22-16
16-26
31-19
14-21
17-38
17-30
30-16
158.3Avg total
80.6Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)77.379.5156.8-2.159%
Season at home (12)82.381.0163.3+1.367%
Season away (10)71.377.6148.9-6.350%
Last 10 (10)80.677.7158.3+2.970%
Last 5 (5)84.289.8174.0-5.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)70.087.5157.5-17.513%
vs Similar (7)74.776.3151.0-1.671%
vs Weaker (8)72.452.9125.2+19.5100%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +6.4+6.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: +4.4+4.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +5.2+5.2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +6.4+6.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: +4.4+4.4
AktobeChelSU Kostanay
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AktobeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Karaganda
#7
W
51-21
51
21
+30
H16/01
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A17/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
62-17
62
17
+45
H18/01
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
44-30
44
30
+14
A19/01
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
26-39
26
39
-13
H11/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
19-29
19
29
-10
H12/02
Higher League
Turan
#1
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A13/02
Higher League
Shymkent
#2
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/02
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
51-21
51
21
+30
H09/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
50-37
50
37
+13
A10/03
Higher League
70.2Avg total
39.9Scored
30.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (28)39.632.772.4+6.961%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.330.971.3+9.467%-
Last 30 away (13)38.834.873.6+4.154%-
Last 10 (10)39.930.370.2+9.650%-
Last 5 (5)36.832.269.0+4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)30.636.366.9-5.720%-
vs Similar (2)42.541.083.5+1.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)44.929.474.4+15.588%-
This opponent (ChelSU Kostanay) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ChelSU KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atyrau 2
#6
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H24/11
Higher League
Kaspiy Aktau 2
#15
W
43-25
43
25
+18
A25/11
Higher League
Arlans
#11
L
28-36
28
36
-8
A18/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H19/01
Higher League
Arlans
#11
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A20/01
Higher League
AiRom
#13
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H21/01
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A02/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H03/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A04/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
31-59
31
59
-28
H05/03
Higher League
78.9Avg total
39.7Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)36.241.777.9-5.545%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.143.582.6-4.553%-
Last 30 away (14)33.139.872.9-6.636%-
Last 10 (10)39.739.278.9+0.570%-
Last 5 (5)42.045.087.0-3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)32.950.283.1-17.320%-
vs Similar (7)37.138.075.1-0.943%-
vs Weaker (7)42.327.369.6+15.0100%-
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aktobetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aktobe: 95.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.0 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.027.0
58.7%
49.5%54.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.010.0
31.2%
28.5%30.0
🏀 Free throws21.011.0
52.4%
63.9%11.0
They take 78.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
ChelSU Kostanaytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

ChelSU Kostanay: 82.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.7 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.222.3
54.3%
49.5%44.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.76.5
28.7%
28.5%19.5
🏀 Free throws26.317.8
67.7%
63.9%17.8
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 1/6 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aktobe
WWWLLLWWWW
ChelSU Kostanay
LWLLWWWWWW
#4
League position
#8
+65.3
Net rating
-5.5
126.6
Offensive rating
104.2
61.3
Defensive rating
109.7
53.8%
Effective FG%
50.3%
33.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.5%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.41
31.2%
3-point %
28.7%
59.5%
Assist %
59.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence126.6 · 104.2Defence61.3 · 109.7Shooting53.8% · 50.3%3-point %31.2% · 28.7%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.27 · 0.41Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Aktobe   ■ ChelSU Kostanay
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Aktobe wins
0
ChelSU Kostanay wins
No previous meetings.
Aktobelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/26ATobol Kostanay 2110-61
09/03/26HTobol Kostanay 295-46
14/02/26AShymkent77-70
13/02/26ATuran54-61
12/02/26HShymkent58-66
11/02/26HTuran57-81
19/01/26APavlodar86-52
18/01/26HPavlodar112-52
17/01/26AKaraganda82-79 OT
16/01/26HKaraganda95-58
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26HBC Almaty 278-105
04/03/26ACHAMP1ON93-88
03/03/26HBC Almaty 299-103
02/03/26ACHAMP1ON68-85
21/01/26HAiRom83-68
20/01/26AArlans71-69
19/01/26HAiRom62-55
18/01/26AArlans77-73
25/11/25AKaspiy Aktau 280-59
24/11/25HAtyrau 295-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aktobe
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW82%
HomeWWLLW82%
AwayWWLWW82%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %82%82%82%
Points / game83.784.882.5
Allowed / game66.065.266.8
Point differential+17.7+19.6+15.7
Avg total149.7150.0149.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%55%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (1)100% (3)
Overtime %5%0%9%
ChelSU Kostanay
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL59%
HomeWWWLL67%
AwayWWWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221210
Win %59%67%50%
Points / game77.382.371.3
Allowed / game79.581.077.6
Point differential-2.1+1.3-6.3
Avg total156.8163.3148.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%33%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)75% (4)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan22220100%90.059.6+30.4
2 Shymkent2320387%94.968.1+26.8
3 Aktobe2218482%83.766.0+17.7
4 Bars Petropavlovsk2015575%82.861.0+21.8
5 Atyrau 22115671%77.768.9+8.9
6 BC Almaty 22012860%80.873.3+7.4
7 ChelSU Kostanay2213959%77.379.5-2.1
8 CHAMP1ON20101050%73.872.8+0.9
9 Karaganda2091145%80.278.0+2.2
10 Tigers-KazATU1971237%66.977.2-10.3
11 Arlans2171433%75.380.3-5.0
12 AiRom2241818%63.681.9-18.3
13 Tobol Kostanay 22442017%68.483.1-14.8
14 Pavlodar2021810%53.389.8-36.5
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2221215%53.083.6-30.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aktobe2021222285
ChelSU Kostanay131881756
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