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Citadel vs Samford Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 23 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#90
Record3-1
FormLLWWW
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game64.5
vs
Position#281
Record1-2
FormWLWLL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game78.7
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Citadel v Samford
23 Jan 2027
CITA v SAMF
upcoming
19 Feb 2026
CITA75
SAMF78
01 Feb 2025
CITA58
SAMF83
06 Jan 2024
CITA64
SAMF80
31 Dec 2022
CITA63
SAMF75
05 Feb 2022
CITA107
SAMF93
15 Feb 2020
CITA62
SAMF74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Citadel win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Samford win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CitadelUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Samford
#149
L
75-78
75
78
-3
H20/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
L
72-93
72
93
-21
H21/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
51-72
51
72
-21
A25/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
W
93-90 OT
93
90
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
W
88-85
88
85
+3
A06/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
76-83
76
83
-7
A07/03
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#117
L
52-77
52
77
-25
A03/11
NCAA
Erskine
#421
W
100-57
100
57
+43
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
131-50
131
50
+81
H11/11
NCAA
North Florida
#331
W
77-74
77
74
+3
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
34-31
41-47
29-50
43-43
31-33
20-39
39-39
44-44
49-49
39-36
32-36
44-47
27-36
25-41
44-28
56-29
66-20
65-30
29-35
48-39
157.4Avg total
81.5Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)90.064.5154.5+25.575%
Season at home (2)115.553.5169.0+62.0100%
Season away (2)64.575.5140.0-11.050%
Last 10 (10)81.575.9157.4+5.650%
Last 5 (5)87.268.2155.4+19.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)68.781.8150.5-13.126%
vs Similar (6)70.561.8132.3+8.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)91.666.2157.8+25.480%
This opponent (Samford) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wofford
#126
W
97-80
97
80
+17
H12/02
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
82-72 OT
82
72
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Citadel
#302
W
78-75
78
75
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A21/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
W
80-61
80
61
+19
H27/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H07/03
NCAA
Berry Vikings
#413
W
87-58
87
58
+29
H03/11
NCAA
UNLV
#74
L
79-88
79
88
-9
A07/11
NCAA
Wright State
#41
L
66-90
66
90
-24
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
47-34
50-46
38-37
30-31
31-34
47-41
41-44
45-45
36-36
44-25
50-41
37-37
46-46
35-40
45-28
42-30
40-45
39-43
34-40
32-50
160.0Avg total
82.3Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)77.378.7156.0-1.333%
Season at home (2)76.574.0150.5+2.550%
Season away (1)79.088.0167.0-9.00%
Last 10 (10)82.377.7160.0+4.660%
Last 5 (5)80.080.0160.0+0.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)67.383.0150.3-15.717%
vs Similar (14)79.178.4157.6+0.743%
vs Weaker (9)83.665.3148.9+18.289%
This opponent (Citadel) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: +1.3+1.3
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.3+2.31st half: +2.3+2.32nd half2nd half: +3.0+3.02nd half: +1.3+1.3
CitadelSamford
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
CitadelLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Samford
#149
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H20/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
L
29-50
29
50
-21
H21/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A25/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A28/02
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#273
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A06/03
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A07/03
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#117
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A03/11
NCAA
Erskine
#421
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H07/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
66-20
66
20
+46
H11/11
NCAA
North Florida
#331
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A14/11
NCAA
73.7Avg total
38.0Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.535.970.3-1.440%-
Last 30 at home (12)36.433.770.1+2.858%-
Last 30 away (18)33.237.370.5-4.228%-
Last 10 (10)38.035.773.7+2.330%-
Last 5 (5)39.631.070.6+8.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)31.939.871.8-7.921%-
vs Similar (6)34.526.761.2+7.883%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)44.031.875.8+12.260%-
This opponent (Samford) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wofford
#126
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H12/02
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Citadel
#302
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A20/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A21/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H27/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H07/03
NCAA
Berry Vikings
#413
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H03/11
NCAA
UNLV
#74
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A07/11
NCAA
Wright State
#41
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H14/11
NCAA
79.3Avg total
40.8Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.536.774.2+0.837%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.634.675.2+6.144%-
Last 30 away (14)34.039.173.1-5.129%-
Last 10 (10)40.838.579.3+2.340%-
Last 5 (5)43.040.083.0+3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)31.339.370.7-8.017%-
vs Similar (14)37.939.177.0-1.329%-
vs Weaker (9)40.332.172.4+8.256%-
This opponent (Citadel) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Citadel wins
9
Samford wins
DateGameScore
20/02/26Citadel v Samford75-78
06/02/26Samford v Citadel78-64
01/02/25Citadel v Samford58-83
02/01/25Samford v Citadel86-56
02/03/24Samford v Citadel92-80
06/01/24Citadel v Samford64-80
11/02/23Samford v Citadel76-70
31/12/22Citadel v Samford63-75
22/02/22Samford v Citadel76-74
05/02/22Citadel v Samford107-93
Citadellast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANorth Florida77-74
11/11/26HVirginia-Lynchburg131-50
07/11/26HErskine100-57
03/11/26ALoyola Chicago52-77
07/03/26AEast Tennessee St76-83
06/03/26AChattanooga Mocs88-85
28/02/26AWofford93-90 OT
25/02/26AFurman51-72
21/02/26HChattanooga Mocs72-93
20/02/26HSamford75-78
Samfordlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HWright State66-90
07/11/26AUNLV79-88
03/11/26HBerry Vikings87-58
07/03/26HFurman81-86
28/02/26HNC Greensboro87-78
27/02/26HVMI80-61
21/02/26AMercer86-89
20/02/26ACitadel78-75
14/02/26AEast Tennessee St82-72 OT
12/02/26HWofford97-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Citadel
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game90.0115.564.5
Allowed / game64.553.575.5
Point differential+25.5+62.0-11.0
Avg total154.5169.0140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Samford
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game77.376.579.0
Allowed / game78.774.088.0
Point differential-1.3+2.5-9.0
Avg total156.0150.5167.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Furman54180%88.068.8+19.2
2 Citadel43175%90.064.5+25.5
3 VMI53260%77.870.4+7.4
4 Western Carolina42250%89.874.5+15.2
5 NC Greensboro42250%81.070.8+10.2
6 Chattanooga Mocs42250%84.279.5+4.8
7 Wofford52340%82.482.0+0.4
8 Mercer52340%78.280.6-2.4
9 Samford31233%77.378.7-1.3
10 East Tennessee St31233%65.368.3-3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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