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Duke vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 27 Feb 2021
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 73-80 (OT)
26-36 39-29 8-15
Position#154
Record11-8
FormLWWWW
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game71.2
vs
Position#94
Record12-5
FormWLWLW
Points / game68.5
Allowed / game65.8
USANCAA
Other2020-21
Meetings · Duke v Louisville
26 Jan 2026
DUKE83
LOUI52
15 Mar 2025
DUKE73
LOUI62
28 Feb 2024
DUKE84
LOUI59
20 Feb 2023
DUKE79
LOUI62
27 Feb 2021
DUKE73
LOUI80
18 Jan 2020
DUKE73
LOUI79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#94
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A23/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
75-68
75
68
+7
H27/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
79-53
79
53
+26
H30/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
L
75-77
75
77
-2
A02/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
87-91
87
91
-4
H06/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
L
89-93
89
93
-4
H09/02
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
69-53
69
53
+16
A13/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
84-60
84
60
+24
A18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#43
W
66-65
66
65
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#96
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H23/02
NCAA
1H
2H
33-36
32-34
33-25
42-43
41-22
38-31
35-33
40-44
39-41
48-50
50-45
39-48
39-21
30-32
45-26
39-34
39-36
27-29
52-34
33-37
147.5Avg total
77.4Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)76.171.2147.2+4.958%
Season at home (12)78.172.8150.9+5.267%
Season away (7)72.668.3140.9+4.343%
Last 10 (10)77.470.1147.5+7.360%
Last 5 (5)78.668.4147.0+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)72.068.5140.5+3.550%
vs Similar ◀ (10)73.668.9142.5+4.760%
vs Weaker (18)81.675.1156.7+6.567%
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#332
W
76-64
76
64
+12
A02/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#65
W
73-71
73
71
+2
H06/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
77-65
77
65
+12
A14/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#42
L
65-78
65
78
-13
H19/01
NCAA
Duke
#154
W
70-65
70
65
+5
H23/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
L
50-54
50
54
-4
A28/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H01/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
54-99
54
99
-45
A20/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
W
69-57
69
57
+12
H24/02
NCAA
1H
2H
37-24
39-40
36-31
37-40
46-34
31-31
21-33
51-45
28-42
37-36
36-33
34-32
22-21
28-33
33-27
41-31
29-48
25-51
33-24
36-33
136.9Avg total
68.0Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)68.565.8134.4+2.771%
Season at home (10)72.462.0134.4+10.490%
Season away (7)63.071.3134.3-8.343%
Last 10 (10)68.068.9136.9-0.960%
Last 5 (5)63.466.6130.0-3.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.771.0145.7+3.767%
vs Similar ◀ (12)66.266.9133.1-0.867%
vs Weaker (15)73.063.8136.8+9.273%
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +8.7+8.71st half: +0.4+0.42nd half2nd half: -1.4-1.42nd half: -1.3-1.3
-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +8.7+8.71st half: +0.4+0.42nd half2nd half: -1.4-1.42nd half: -1.3-1.3
DukeLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Louisville
#94
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A23/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
33-25
33
25
+8
H27/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H30/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A02/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H06/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H09/02
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
39-21
39
21
+18
A13/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
45-26
45
26
+19
A18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#43
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#96
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H23/02
NCAA
72.5Avg total
40.6Scored
31.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.534.171.5+3.460%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.633.673.2+6.176%-
Last 30 away (13)34.634.769.3-0.138%-
Last 10 (10)40.631.972.5+8.780%-
Last 5 (5)45.032.477.4+12.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.034.066.0-2.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.733.671.3+4.160%-
vs Weaker (18)37.934.372.3+3.661%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston College
#332
W
37-24
37
24
+13
A02/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#65
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H06/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A14/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
L
21-33
21
33
-12
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#42
L
28-42
28
42
-14
H19/01
NCAA
Duke
#154
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H23/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
22-21
22
21
+1
A28/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H01/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
29-48
29
48
-19
A20/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
W
33-24
33
24
+9
H24/02
NCAA
63.8Avg total
32.1Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.231.664.8+1.663%-
Last 30 at home (17)35.530.766.2+4.871%-
Last 30 away (13)30.232.863.0-2.554%-
Last 10 (10)32.131.763.8+0.470%-
Last 5 (5)30.630.661.2+0.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)35.034.769.7+0.367%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)31.832.163.9-0.375%-
vs Weaker (15)34.030.664.6+3.453%-
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Duke wins
2
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
23/01/21Louisville v Duke70-65
18/01/20Duke v Louisville73-79
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/02/21HSyracuse85-71
21/02/21HVirginia66-65
18/02/21AWake Forest84-60
13/02/21ANC State69-53
09/02/21HNotre Dame89-93
06/02/21HNorth Carolina87-91
02/02/21AMiami (FL)75-77
30/01/21HClemson79-53
27/01/21HGeorgia Tech75-68
23/01/21ALouisville65-70
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/02/21HNotre Dame69-57
20/02/21ANorth Carolina54-99
01/02/21HGeorgia Tech74-58
28/01/21AClemson50-54
23/01/21HDuke70-65
19/01/21HFlorida State65-78
17/01/21AMiami (FL)72-78
14/01/21AWake Forest77-65
06/01/21HVirginia Tech73-71
02/01/21ABoston College76-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW58%
HomeWLLWW67%
AwayLLLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19127
Win %58%67%43%
Points / game76.178.172.6
Allowed / game71.272.868.3
Point differential+4.9+5.2+4.3
Avg total147.2150.9140.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%42%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)50% (4)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW71%
HomeWLWWW90%
AwayWWLLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %71%90%43%
Points / game68.572.463.0
Allowed / game65.862.071.3
Point differential+2.7+10.4-8.3
Avg total134.4134.4134.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%50%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Florida State1814478%79.269.7+9.6
2 Virginia Tech2015575%72.164.8+7.3
3 Clemson2015575%65.361.6+3.7
4 SMU Mustangs1511473%74.366.6+7.7
5 Virginia2115671%68.860.6+8.2
6 Louisville1712571%68.565.8+2.7
7 North Carolina2315865%74.369.4+4.9
8 Georgia Tech2113862%75.370.0+5.4
9 Syracuse2113862%76.371.6+4.7
10 Stanford24141058%71.768.8+2.9
11 Duke1911858%76.171.2+4.9
12 NC State2011955%73.569.8+3.8
13 Pittsburgh189950%72.270.3+1.9
14 Notre Dame2291341%72.772.8-0.1
15 Miami (FL)2271532%66.071.4-5.5
16 Wake Forest1961332%66.471.5-5.1
17 California2781930%65.370.0-4.7
18 Boston College1741324%72.778.3-5.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Duke2639873
Louisville36291580
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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