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Duke vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 82-75
41-35 41-40
Position#8
Record14-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game87.1
Allowed / game66.0
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
SMU Mustangs
USA
Position#129
Record12-3
FormLWWWL
Points / game90.1
Allowed / game76.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Niagara
#351
W
100-42
100
42
+58
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
93-56
93
56
+37
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
80-71
80
71
+9
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H03/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
66-60
66
60
+6
A06/12
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
W
97-73
97
73
+24
H16/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
L
81-82
81
82
-1
H21/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H31/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
91-87
91
87
+4
A03/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
84-73
84
73
+11
A07/01
NCAA
1H
2H
47-19
53-23
52-18
41-38
41-35
39-36
36-24
31-42
31-34
35-26
48-45
49-28
46-36
35-46
39-43
46-36
42-42
49-45
38-47
46-26
153.3Avg total
84.4Scored
68.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)87.166.0153.1+21.193%
Season at home (10)87.164.0151.1+23.190%
Season away (5)87.070.0157.0+17.0100%
Last 10 (10)84.468.9153.3+15.590%
Last 5 (5)87.678.8166.4+8.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)67.066.0133.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)88.566.3154.8+22.293%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#98
W
100-69
100
69
+31
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H25/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
87-81 OT
87
81
+6
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
69-88
69
88
-19
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
93-80 OT
93
80
+13
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
77-89
77
89
-12
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
97-83
97
83
+14
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A08/01
NCAA
1H
2H
50-30
50-39
46-38
43-34
39-43
35-31
38-48
31-40
41-27
36-50
44-47
33-42
51-47
48-35
51-19
59-44
39-39
58-44
25-34
45-40
167.2Avg total
89.1Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)90.176.7166.8+13.380%
Season at home (11)95.374.5169.7+20.8100%
Season away (4)75.883.0158.8-7.225%
Last 10 (10)89.178.1167.2+11.070%
Last 5 (5)90.678.2168.8+12.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)69.088.0157.0-19.00%
vs Similar (13)83.575.5159.0+7.962%
vs Weaker (15)83.971.3155.3+12.680%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +7.7+7.71st half: +5.2+5.22nd half2nd half: +7.8+7.82nd half: +3.9+3.9
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +7.7+7.71st half: +5.2+5.22nd half2nd half: +7.8+7.82nd half: +3.9+3.9
DukeSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Niagara
#351
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H22/11
NCAA
Howard
#55
W
52-18
52
18
+34
H23/11
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A28/11
NCAA
Florida
#28
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H03/12
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A06/12
NCAA
Lipscomb
#121
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H16/12
NCAA
Texas Tech
#63
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H21/12
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H31/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A03/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A07/01
NCAA
76.3Avg total
42.0Scored
34.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.132.775.8+10.477%-
Last 30 at home (21)43.131.174.2+12.081%-
Last 30 away (9)43.136.479.6+6.767%-
Last 10 (10)42.034.376.3+7.760%-
Last 5 (5)42.642.685.2+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)36.024.060.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)43.433.076.4+10.476%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#98
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H22/11
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H25/11
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A29/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A04/12
NCAA
Texas A&M
#82
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A08/01
NCAA
79.6Avg total
42.4Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.834.674.4+5.360%-
Last 30 at home (20)41.233.574.7+7.780%-
Last 30 away (10)37.136.773.8+0.420%-
Last 10 (10)42.437.279.6+5.250%-
Last 5 (5)42.037.279.2+4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)38.048.086.0-10.00%-
vs Similar (13)40.035.675.6+4.462%-
vs Weaker (15)40.332.973.2+7.360%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Duke wins
0
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
04/01/25SMU Mustangs v Duke62-89
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/26ALouisville84-73
03/01/26AFlorida State91-87
31/12/25HGeorgia Tech85-79
21/12/25HTexas Tech81-82
16/12/25HLipscomb97-73
06/12/25AMichigan State66-60
03/12/25HFlorida67-66
28/11/25AArkansas80-71
23/11/25HHoward93-56
22/11/25HNiagara100-42
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26AClemson70-74
03/01/26HNorth Carolina97-83
28/12/25HCS Fullerton110-63
21/12/25HCentral Arkansas99-82
14/12/25ALSU77-89
07/12/25HTexas A&M93-80 OT
04/12/25AVanderbilt69-88
29/11/25AMississippi St.87-81 OT
25/11/25HRadford89-72
22/11/25HArkansas State100-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW93%
HomeWWWLW90%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15105
Win %93%90%100%
Points / game87.187.187.0
Allowed / game66.064.070.0
Point differential+21.1+23.1+17.0
Avg total153.1151.1157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%70%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL80%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15114
Win %80%100%25%
Points / game90.195.375.8
Allowed / game76.774.583.0
Point differential+13.3+20.8-7.2
Avg total166.8169.7158.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%91%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %13%9%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1514193%87.166.0+21.1
2 Miami (FL)1614288%88.269.2+19.0
3 North Carolina1513287%81.365.9+15.4
4 Virginia1613381%84.170.0+14.1
5 Clemson1613381%77.965.9+12.0
6 California1613381%80.169.5+10.6
7 Stanford1613381%78.370.7+7.6
8 SMU Mustangs1512380%90.176.7+13.3
9 Louisville1612475%88.369.6+18.7
10 Virginia Tech1612475%82.673.7+8.9
11 NC State1712571%86.571.2+15.3
12 Syracuse1510567%74.265.3+8.9
13 Notre Dame1510567%74.366.7+7.6
14 Wake Forest1610662%81.674.7+6.9
15 Georgia Tech1710759%76.072.1+3.9
16 Pittsburgh157847%73.368.7+4.6
17 Florida State167944%82.981.3+1.6
18 Boston College167944%69.067.9+1.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke414182
SMU Mustangs354075
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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