PythiaBasketballBETA
Premier leagueRound 7· MVA-hollin Egilsstodum
Hottur will host Valur on 19 November 2026 in the Premier league, with Valur the clear favourite as the model gives the away side a 61% chance of victory against Hottur's 39%. Hottur, 2-4 this season, averages 92.0 points and allows 101.5, while Valur, 5-1, scores 84.2 and concedes 78.8, positioning them fourth in the standings. At home Hottur has split its two games 1-1, averaging 90.5 points and 88.0 allowed, and has gone 2-3 in its last five, losing to KR Basket 92-112, Tindastoll 73-80 and Keflavik 99-112. Valur has been unbeaten on the road, 2-0, with 89.5 points and 79.0 allowed, and has gone 4-1 in its last five, dropping only to Alftanes 68-80 at home but winning 86-73 and 87-84 against Sindri and Armann respectively. Historically Valur has dominated the rivalry, winning eight of ten meetings, most recently 92-58 on 7 February 2025. The model projects a 86-89 scoreline and 174.7 total points, with a 5% chance of overtime; Valur's probability of covering the home team's line remains unprovided.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 92.0 | 101.5 | 193.5 | -9.5 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 90.5 | 88.0 | 178.5 | +2.5 | 50% |
| Season away (4) | 92.8 | 108.2 | 201.0 | -15.5 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 91.2 | 98.0 | 189.2 | -6.8 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 95.0 | 99.6 | 194.6 | -4.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (22) | 85.5 | 96.4 | 182.0 | -10.9 | 23% |
| vs Similar (5) | 91.4 | 92.6 | 184.0 | -1.2 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 97.0 | 84.5 | 181.5 | +12.5 | 50% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 84.2 | 78.8 | 163.0 | +5.3 | 83% |
| Season at home (4) | 81.5 | 78.8 | 160.2 | +2.8 | 75% |
| Season away (2) | 89.5 | 79.0 | 168.5 | +10.5 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 81.8 | 82.6 | 164.4 | -0.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 83.0 | 79.2 | 162.2 | +3.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 82.1 | 88.6 | 170.7 | -6.4 | 33% |
| vs Similar (14) | 86.4 | 85.3 | 171.6 | +1.1 | 64% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 87.5 | 82.0 | 169.5 | +5.5 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.9 | 47.5 | 90.4 | -4.6 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 43.5 | 45.5 | 89.0 | -1.9 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 42.3 | 49.5 | 91.7 | -7.2 | 13% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 47.1 | 49.5 | 96.6 | -2.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 49.2 | 51.2 | 100.4 | -2.0 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (22) | 42.2 | 48.8 | 91.0 | -6.6 | 23% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 46.6 | 48.2 | 94.8 | -1.6 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 43.5 | 37.0 | 80.5 | +6.5 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.4 | 43.3 | 85.7 | -0.9 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 43.0 | 42.9 | 85.9 | +0.1 | 44% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 41.7 | 43.9 | 85.6 | -2.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 44.6 | 43.5 | 88.1 | +1.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.4 | 43.2 | 89.6 | +3.2 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 40.8 | 43.9 | 84.7 | -3.1 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 43.1 | 43.6 | 86.6 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 42.5 | 41.8 | 84.3 | +0.7 | 50% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.5 | 19.0 | 56.2% | 38.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 32.8 | 10.8 | 33.0% | 32.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.6 | 17.8 | 73.9% | 17.8 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 41.4 | 21.6 | 56.2% | 43.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.7 | 9.0 | 33.0% | 27.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 18.5 | 13.2 | 73.9% | 13.2 |
Hottur
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 07/02/25 | Valur v Hottur | 92-58 |
| 08/11/24 | Hottur v Valur | 83-70 |
| 22/04/24 | Hottur v Valur | 97-103 OT |
| 18/04/24 | Valur v Hottur | 94-74 |
| 14/04/24 | Hottur v Valur | 84-77 |
| 10/04/24 | Valur v Hottur | 94-75 |
| 15/02/24 | Hottur v Valur | 83-92 |
| 17/11/23 | Valur v Hottur | 80-69 |
| 05/03/23 | Hottur v Valur | 81-90 |
| 11/01/23 | Hottur v Valur | 47-74 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | KR Basket | 92-112 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Tindastoll | 73-80 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Keflavik | 99-112 |
| 22/10/26 | H | IR Reykjavik | 108-96 |
| 16/10/26 | A | Stjarnan | 103-98 |
| 08/10/26 | A | Alftanes | 77-111 |
| 27/03/25 | H | Alftanes | 99-95 |
| 14/03/25 | A | IR Reykjavik | 83-84 |
| 06/03/25 | H | Thorl | 103-95 |
| 01/03/25 | A | KR Basket | 75-97 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLLL | 33% |
| Home | WL | 50% |
| Away | LWLL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Win % | 33% | 50% | 25% |
| Points / game | 92.0 | 90.5 | 92.8 |
| Allowed / game | 101.5 | 88.0 | 108.2 |
| Point differential | -9.5 | +2.5 | -15.5 |
| Avg total | 193.5 | 178.5 | 201.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 17% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWWL | 83% |
| Home | WWWL | 75% |
| Away | WW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Win % | 83% | 75% | 100% |
| Points / game | 84.2 | 81.5 | 89.5 |
| Allowed / game | 78.8 | 78.8 | 79.0 |
| Point differential | +5.3 | +2.8 | +10.5 |
| Avg total | 163.0 | 160.2 | 168.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 25% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KR Basket | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 100.7 | 85.8 | +14.8 |
| 2 |  Alftanes | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 107.0 | 91.7 | +15.3 |
| 3 |  Tindastoll | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 91.8 | 83.7 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Valur | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 84.2 | 78.8 | +5.3 |
| 5 |  Keflavik | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 105.0 | 102.0 | +3.0 |
| 6 |  Grindavik | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 90.0 | 87.3 | +2.7 |
| 7 |  Stjarnan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 97.5 | 93.3 | +4.2 |
| 8 | Hottur | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 92.0 | 101.5 | -9.5 |
| 9 |  Njardvik | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 87.3 | 94.3 | -7.0 |
| 10 |  IR Reykjavik | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 92.3 | 102.3 | -10.0 |
| 11 | Sindri | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 83.8 | 93.0 | -9.2 |
| 12 | Armann | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 85.3 | 103.2 | -17.8 |
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