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Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 02 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 01:30
Scheduled
Position#4
Record7-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game121.3
Allowed / game110.9
vs
Position#21
Record4-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game113.6
Allowed / game116.9
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks
01 Jan 2027
HOU v DAL
upcoming
21 Oct 2026
HOU128
DAL110
11 Oct 2026
HOU115
DAL132
31 Jan 2026
HOU111
DAL107
03 Nov 2025
HOU110
DAL102
14 Mar 2025
HOU133
DAL96
01 Jan 2025
HOU110
DAL99
31 Mar 2024
HOU107
DAL125
22 Dec 2023
HOU122
DAL96
02 Jan 2023
HOU106
DAL111
23 Dec 2022
HOU106
DAL112
11 Mar 2022
HOU100
DAL113
07 Jan 2022
HOU106
DAL130
07 Apr 2021
HOU102
DAL93
04 Jan 2021
HOU100
DAL113
31 Jan 2020
HOU128
DAL121
24 Nov 2019
HOU123
DAL137
11 Feb 2019
HOU120
DAL104
28 Nov 2018
HOU108
DAL128
11 Feb 2018
HOU104
DAL97
21 Oct 2017
HOU107
DAL91
10 Dec 2016
HOU109
DAL87
30 Oct 2016
HOU93
DAL92
24 Jan 2016
HOU115
DAL104
14 Nov 2015
HOU98
DAL110
07 Oct 2015
HOU109
DAL82
28 Apr 2015
HOU103
DAL94
21 Apr 2015
HOU111
DAL99
18 Apr 2015
HOU118
DAL108
28 Jan 2015
HOU99
DAL94
22 Nov 2014
HOU95
DAL92
23 Dec 2013
HOU104
DAL111
01 Nov 2013
HOU113
DAL105
21 Oct 2013
HOU100
DAL95
03 Mar 2013
HOU136
DAL103
08 Dec 2012
HOU109
DAL116
24 Mar 2012
HOU99
DAL101
11 Apr 2011
HOU91
DAL98
12 Feb 2011
HOU102
DAL106
31 Dec 2009
HOU97
DAL94
25 Nov 2009
HOU99
DAL130
23 Oct 2009
HOU94
DAL98
20 Feb 2009
HOU93
DAL86
19 Nov 2008
HOU86
DAL96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
78-98
78
98
-20
H02/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
135-117
135
117
+18
A09/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
115-132
115
132
-17
H11/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
116-89
116
89
+27
H16/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
128-110
128
110
+18
H22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
W
114-110
114
110
+4
A24/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
W
121-114
121
114
+7
A25/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
W
120-110
120
110
+10
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#28
W
132-100
132
100
+32
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
111-116
111
116
-5
A31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-23
13-26
24-22
23-27
27-19
38-26
34-35
36-37
27-28
24-30
34-37
30-37
33-15
21-32
25-22
37-20
32-26
38-12
30-38
28-34
32-27
29-32
24-22
29-29
30-26
29-22
33-33
29-33
32-35
31-31
28-19
29-25
23-21
34-14
38-34
37-31
20-27
31-17
33-32
27-40
226.6Avg total
117.0Scored
109.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)121.3110.9232.2+10.478%
Season at home (4)119.8110.2230.0+9.575%
Season away (5)122.6111.4234.0+11.280%
Last 10 (10)117.0109.6226.6+7.470%
Last 5 (5)119.6110.0229.6+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)118.6113.4232.0+5.260%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)116.6108.2224.8+8.468%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
149-128
149
128
+21
H13/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
117-135
117
135
-18
H09/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
132-115
132
115
+17
A11/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
97-101
97
101
-4
H15/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
L
111-135
111
135
-24
H17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
110-128
110
128
-18
A22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
L
106-122
106
122
-16
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
113-109
113
109
+4
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
120-96
120
96
+24
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
116-111
116
111
+5
H31/10
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
45-34
35-22
39-32
30-40
19-27
26-38
35-34
37-36
28-27
30-24
37-34
37-30
18-24
27-32
18-19
34-26
34-39
20-34
24-29
33-33
26-32
12-38
38-30
34-28
31-32
29-36
29-24
17-30
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
235.1Avg total
117.1Scored
118.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)113.6116.9230.4-3.344%
Season at home (6)111.2116.7227.8-5.533%
Season away (3)118.3117.3235.7+1.067%
Last 10 (10)117.1118.0235.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)113.0113.2226.2-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)115.7126.2241.9-10.622%
vs Similar (7)113.7111.7225.4+2.057%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +2.2+2.2Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +2.8+2.8
Houston RocketsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H02/05
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
65-45
65
45
+20
A09/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
51-58
51
58
-7
H11/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H16/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
70-38
70
38
+32
H22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
W
61-59
61
59
+2
A24/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
W
59-48
59
48
+11
A25/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
L
63-66
63
66
-3
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#28
W
57-35
57
35
+22
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBA
105.1Avg total
56.2Scored
48.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.452.1109.5+5.367%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.854.1113.9+5.669%-
Last 30 away (14)54.849.8104.6+5.064%-
Last 10 (10)56.248.9105.1+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)58.250.4108.6+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)59.456.6116.0+2.860%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)57.051.2108.2+5.868%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
80-56
80
56
+24
H13/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
45-65
45
65
-20
H09/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A11/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#19
L
45-56
45
56
-11
H15/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#7
L
54-73
54
73
-19
H17/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
38-70
38
70
-32
A22/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#14
L
60-68
60
68
-8
H25/10
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#16
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
114.3Avg total
54.2Scored
60.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.561.5118.0-5.137%-
Last 30 at home (14)58.262.6120.8-4.436%-
Last 30 away (16)54.960.6115.6-5.738%-
Last 10 (10)54.260.1114.3-5.940%-
Last 5 (5)52.060.0112.0-8.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)55.662.5118.1-7.030%-
vs Similar (7)59.458.3117.7+1.157%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 110.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.027.7
53.3%
54.0%55.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.411.1
33.2%
34.9%33.3
🏀 Free throws28.322.2
78.4%
76.4%22.2
They take 85.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 116.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.028.0
56.0%
54.0%56.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.013.6
34.9%
34.9%40.8
🏀 Free throws24.019.3
80.4%
76.4%19.3
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
LWWWWWWLWL
Dallas Mavericks
WWWLLLLWLW
#4
League position
#21
+1.8
Net rating
-3.5
109.3
Offensive rating
103.5
107.5
Defensive rating
107.0
51.9%
Effective FG%
54.4%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
14.5%
Turnover %
14.8%
30.2%
Off. rebound %
17.2%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.27
33.2%
3-point %
34.9%
61.3%
Assist %
64.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.3 · 103.5Defence107.5 · 107.0Shooting51.9% · 54.4%3-point %33.2% · 34.9%Ball care14.5% · 14.8%Off. rebounds30.2% · 17.2%Free throws0.33 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26ADallas Mavericks111-116
29/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks132-100
27/10/26HAtlanta Hawks120-110
25/10/26AAtlanta Hawks121-114
24/10/26ASan Antonio Spurs114-110
22/10/26HDallas Mavericks128-110
16/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder116-89
11/10/26HDallas Mavericks115-132
09/10/26ADallas Mavericks135-117
02/05/26HLos Angeles Lakers78-98
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109
25/10/26HSan Antonio Spurs106-122
22/10/26AHouston Rockets110-128
17/10/26HAtlanta Hawks111-135
15/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans97-101
11/10/26AHouston Rockets132-115
09/10/26HHouston Rockets117-135
13/04/26HChicago Bulls149-128

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL78%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %78%75%80%
Points / game121.3119.8122.6
Allowed / game110.9110.2111.4
Point differential+10.4+9.5+11.2
Avg total232.2230.0234.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%75%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW44%
HomeLLLWW33%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %44%33%67%
Points / game113.6111.2118.3
Allowed / game116.9116.7117.3
Point differential-3.3-5.5+1.0
Avg total230.4227.8235.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%17%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Memphis Grizzlies98189%117.9108.2+9.7
2 Boston Celtics87188%125.5110.9+14.6
3 Detroit Pistons108280%113.3106.3+7.0
4 Houston Rockets97278%121.3110.9+10.4
5 Portland Trail Blazers75271%120.3114.3+6.0
6 Orlando Magic85362%118.9118.1+0.8
7 Atlanta Hawks106460%120.0119.2+0.8
8 Denver Nuggets106460%114.8114.7+0.1
9 Philadelphia 76ers106460%110.6111.0-0.4
10 Golden State Warriors127558%115.2110.8+4.4
11 Washington Wizards95456%112.7111.2+1.4
12 Minnesota Timberwolves116555%119.2114.2+5.0
13 Los Angeles Lakers116555%113.2112.6+0.5
14 San Antonio Spurs105550%115.5109.4+6.1
15 Cleveland Cavaliers84450%117.2118.2-1.0
16 Oklahoma City Thunder105550%109.0110.8-1.8
17 Miami Heat115645%122.7121.9+0.8
18 Toronto Raptors94544%120.4112.6+7.9
19 New Orleans Pelicans94544%115.4116.6-1.1
20 Utah Jazz94544%112.8115.6-2.8
21 Dallas Mavericks94544%113.6116.9-3.3
22 Charlotte Hornets94544%98.8105.8-7.0
23 Los Angeles Clippers83538%107.4110.5-3.1
24 Chicago Bulls114736%117.4122.7-5.4
25 Indiana Pacers93633%119.3119.0+0.3
26 Brooklyn Nets93633%116.4118.9-2.4
27 New York Knicks103730%106.9116.0-9.1
28 Milwaukee Bucks103730%111.4122.0-10.6
29 Phoenix Suns92722%110.3119.0-8.7
30 Sacramento Kings100100%106.5122.2-15.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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