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Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 02 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 01:30
Scheduled
Position#5
Record10-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game116.2
Allowed / game107.4
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.5/10
Below normal
4.1/10
Below normal
Position#14
Record7-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game113.5
Allowed / game113.3
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks
01 Jan 2027
HOU v DAL
upcoming
21 Oct 2026
HOU128
DAL110
31 Jan 2026
HOU111
DAL107
03 Nov 2025
HOU110
DAL102
14 Mar 2025
HOU133
DAL96
01 Jan 2025
HOU110
DAL99
31 Mar 2024
HOU107
DAL125
22 Dec 2023
HOU122
DAL96
02 Jan 2023
HOU106
DAL111
23 Dec 2022
HOU106
DAL112
11 Mar 2022
HOU100
DAL113
07 Jan 2022
HOU106
DAL130
07 Apr 2021
HOU102
DAL93
04 Jan 2021
HOU100
DAL113
31 Jan 2020
HOU128
DAL121
24 Nov 2019
HOU123
DAL137
11 Feb 2019
HOU120
DAL104
28 Nov 2018
HOU108
DAL128
11 Feb 2018
HOU104
DAL97
21 Oct 2017
HOU107
DAL91
10 Dec 2016
HOU109
DAL87
30 Oct 2016
HOU93
DAL92
24 Jan 2016
HOU115
DAL104
14 Nov 2015
HOU98
DAL110
28 Apr 2015
HOU103
DAL94
21 Apr 2015
HOU111
DAL99
18 Apr 2015
HOU118
DAL108
28 Jan 2015
HOU99
DAL94
22 Nov 2014
HOU95
DAL92
23 Dec 2013
HOU104
DAL111
01 Nov 2013
HOU113
DAL105
03 Mar 2013
HOU136
DAL103
08 Dec 2012
HOU109
DAL116
24 Mar 2012
HOU99
DAL101
11 Apr 2011
HOU91
DAL98
12 Feb 2011
HOU102
DAL106
31 Dec 2009
HOU97
DAL94
25 Nov 2009
HOU99
DAL130
20 Feb 2009
HOU93
DAL86
19 Nov 2008
HOU86
DAL96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
120-110
120
110
+10
126avg 105
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
132-100
132
100
+32
127avg 105
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
111-116
111
116
-5
98avg 105
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
119-98
119
98
+21
110avg 105
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
109-93
109
93
+16
109avg 105
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
107-117
107
117
-10
97avg 105
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
L
99-102
99
102
-3
81avg 105
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
110-100
110
100
+10
107avg 105
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
115-108
115
108
+7
108avg 105
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
125-118
125
118
+7
117avg 105
H14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-35
31-31
28-19
29-25
23-21
34-14
38-34
37-31
20-27
31-17
33-32
27-40
35-26
27-25
30-24
27-23
29-29
28-21
25-23
27-20
30-33
27-24
27-25
23-35
23-35
24-12
28-29
24-26
32-24
22-16
23-28
33-32
35-20
21-31
29-28
30-29
27-27
36-26
29-36
33-29
220.9Avg total
114.7Scored
106.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)116.2107.4223.5+8.877%
Season at home (8)116.6106.8223.4+9.988%
Season away (5)115.4108.4223.8+7.060%
Last 10 (10)114.7106.2220.9+8.570%
Last 5 (5)111.2109.0220.2+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)114.0110.0224.0+4.0100%
vs Similar (12)106.5105.2211.7+1.342%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)120.8107.4228.2+13.588%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMavericks
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#15
W
113-109
113
109
+4
111avg 102
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
120-96
120
96
+24
114avg 102
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 102
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
100-115
100
115
-15
85avg 102
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
111-112
111
112
-1
98avg 102
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
112-100
112
100
+12
104avg 102
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
130-93
130
93
+37
134avg 102
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
125-122
125
122
+3
120avg 102
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
94-133
94
133
-39
78avg 102
A13/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
117-127
117
127
-10
100avg 102
A15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-27
30-25
30-32
30-25
33-30
32-29
29-22
26-15
27-20
17-31
32-33
40-27
18-19
35-35
21-27
26-34
26-32
25-36
29-22
31-22
26-28
31-29
32-19
23-24
33-26
33-20
34-25
30-22
26-31
30-35
34-27
35-29
26-34
26-33
17-36
25-30
33-33
20-38
38-34
26-22
225.6Avg total
113.8Scored
111.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)113.5113.3226.8+0.254%
Season at home (7)115.6108.4224.0+7.171%
Season away (6)111.0119.0230.0-8.033%
Last 10 (10)113.8111.8225.6+2.060%
Last 5 (5)115.6115.0230.6+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)115.2125.9241.1-10.722%
vs Similar (9)119.4116.8236.2+2.767%
vs Weaker (3)114.0102.7216.7+11.367%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +6.4+6.4Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +4.2+4.2
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +6.4+6.4Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +4.2+4.2
Houston RocketsDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
63-66
63
66
-3
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
57-35
57
35
+22
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
62-51
62
51
+11
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
63-53
63
53
+10
H14/11
NBA
106.1Avg total
56.7Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.350.4107.8+6.970%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.951.7111.6+8.276%-
Last 30 away (13)53.948.8102.7+5.262%-
Last 10 (10)56.749.4106.1+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.449.6105.0+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)61.059.0120.0+2.0100%-
vs Similar (12)53.053.1106.1-0.142%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)60.248.1108.2+12.188%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#15
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A26/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H03/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#1
L
51-68
51
68
-17
A05/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H07/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#26
W
66-46
66
46
+20
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
L
56-66
56
66
-10
H10/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A13/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
53-71
53
71
-18
A15/11
NBA
114.1Avg total
55.0Scored
59.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.261.1119.3-3.037%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.260.3120.5-0.140%-
Last 30 away (15)56.161.9118.1-5.833%-
Last 10 (10)55.059.1114.1-4.130%-
Last 5 (5)56.861.4118.2-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)56.463.6119.9-7.228%-
vs Similar (9)61.659.2120.8+2.356%-
vs Weaker (3)58.752.3111.0+6.333%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 115.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.429.3
53.9%
54.0%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.011.7
35.5%
35.1%35.1
🏀 Free throws26.321.3
81.0%
77.3%21.3
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 119.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.530.1
57.3%
54.0%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.413.5
37.1%
35.1%40.5
🏀 Free throws23.818.6
78.2%
77.3%18.6
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
WWWLLWWLWW
Dallas Mavericks
LLWWWLLWWW
#5
League position
#14
+4.5
Net rating
+6.0
115.9
Offensive rating
112.7
111.4
Defensive rating
106.8
53.6%
Effective FG%
56.6%
54.1%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
13.9%
Turnover %
15.4%
32.7%
Off. rebound %
31.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.5%
3-point %
37.1%
63.2%
Assist %
63.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.9 · 112.7Defence111.4 · 106.8Shooting53.6% · 56.6%3-point %35.5% · 37.1%Ball care13.9% · 15.4%Off. rebounds32.7% · 31.0%Free throws0.30 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HUtah Jazz125-118
12/11/26HGolden State Warriors115-108
10/11/26HDenver Nuggets110-100
08/11/26APhoenix Suns99-102
05/11/26HMinnesota Timberwolves107-117
03/11/26HBoston Celtics109-93
01/11/26HOklahoma City Thunder119-98
31/10/26ADallas Mavericks111-116
29/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks132-100
27/10/26HAtlanta Hawks120-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ACleveland Cavaliers117-127
13/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-133
10/11/26HIndiana Pacers125-122
09/11/26HBrooklyn Nets130-93
07/11/26HUtah Jazz112-100
05/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs111-112
03/11/26HSacramento Kings100-115
31/10/26HHouston Rockets116-111
29/10/26HOklahoma City Thunder120-96
26/10/26AMiami Heat113-109

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW77%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %77%88%60%
Points / game116.2116.6115.4
Allowed / game107.4106.8108.4
Point differential+8.8+9.9+7.0
Avg total223.5223.4223.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL54%
HomeWLWWW71%
AwayWWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %54%71%33%
Points / game113.5115.6111.0
Allowed / game113.3108.4119.0
Point differential+0.2+7.1-8.0
Avg total226.8224.0230.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%43%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1411379%112.6110.4+2.1
5 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers145936%112.1114.5-2.4
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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