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Illinois (Chi.) vs Indiana State Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 16 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#111
Record3-1
FormLWWWL
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game64.8
vs
Position#193
Record2-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game65.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Illinois (Chi.) v Indiana State
15 Dec 2026
ILLI v INDI
upcoming
27 Jan 2026
ILLI76
INDI74
01 Feb 2025
ILLI83
INDI88
24 Jan 2024
ILLI83
INDI89
15 Feb 2023
ILLI60
INDI79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois (Chi.) win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Indiana State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illinois (Chi.)USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
67-71
67
71
-4
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
93-86 OT
93
86
+7
H25/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
63-79
63
79
-16
A01/03
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
92-79
92
79
+13
A06/03
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
72-51
72
51
+21
H07/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
69-84
69
84
-15
H08/03
NCAA
St. Francis (ILL)
#485
W
96-47
96
47
+49
H02/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#405
W
79-56
79
56
+23
H07/11
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#200
W
82-72
82
72
+10
H10/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
L
61-84
61
84
-23
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-31
38-40
39-28
33-44
31-35
32-44
50-32
42-47
34-27
38-24
41-48
28-36
51-31
45-16
30-32
49-24
33-32
49-40
24-42
37-42
148.3Avg total
77.4Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)79.564.8144.2+14.875%
Season at home (3)85.758.3144.0+27.3100%
Season away (1)61.084.0145.0-23.00%
Last 10 (10)77.470.9148.3+6.560%
Last 5 (5)77.468.6146.0+8.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)66.080.0146.0-14.00%
vs Similar ◀ (15)73.671.9145.5+1.753%
vs Weaker (13)76.265.6141.8+10.569%
This opponent (Indiana State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Indiana StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
75-76
75
76
-1
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
60-81
60
81
-21
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
70-87
70
87
-17
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
55-66
55
66
-11
A26/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
79-63
79
63
+16
H01/03
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
62-63
62
63
-1
A06/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#227
L
70-78
70
78
-8
H03/11
NCAA
Ball State
#311
W
69-66
69
66
+3
A07/11
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#258
L
73-82
73
82
-9
H12/11
NCAA
Earlham
#535
W
109-37
109
37
+72
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
43-49
32-27
34-36
26-45
25-39
45-48
23-36
32-30
35-31
44-32
37-28
25-35
30-27
40-51
32-37
37-29
37-44
36-38
53-9
56-28
142.1Avg total
72.2Scored
69.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)80.265.8146.0+14.550%
Season at home (3)84.065.7149.7+18.333%
Season away (1)69.066.0135.0+3.0100%
Last 10 (10)72.269.9142.1+2.330%
Last 5 (5)76.665.2141.8+11.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)73.579.9153.4-6.520%
vs Similar ◀ (6)68.872.2141.0-3.317%
vs Weaker (8)76.969.2146.1+7.650%
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +1.0+1.0
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +2.4+2.41st half: +1.3+1.32nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: +1.0+1.0
Illinois (Chi.)Indiana State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Illinois (Chi.)Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H21/02
NCAA
Bradley
#91
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H25/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#311
L
31-35
31
35
-4
A01/03
NCAA
Murray State
#102
W
50-32
50
32
+18
A06/03
NCAA
Drake
#271
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H07/03
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
41-48
41
48
-7
H08/03
NCAA
St. Francis (ILL)
#485
W
51-31
51
31
+20
H02/11
NCAA
Robert Morris
#405
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H07/11
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#200
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H10/11
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#105
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A14/11
NCAA
70.0Avg total
36.2Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.231.066.1+4.267%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.829.465.2+6.475%-
Last 30 away (14)34.432.767.1+1.757%-
Last 10 (10)36.233.870.0+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)35.837.072.8-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)32.035.067.0-3.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)33.932.366.2+1.560%-
vs Weaker (13)35.729.164.8+6.677%-
This opponent (Indiana State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Indiana StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
43-49
43
49
-6
A15/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H19/02
NCAA
Belmont
#25
L
25-39
25
39
-14
A22/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H01/03
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A06/03
NCAA
Charlotte
#227
W
30-27
30
27
+3
H03/11
NCAA
Ball State
#311
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A07/11
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#258
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H12/11
NCAA
Earlham
#535
W
53-9
53
9
+44
H15/11
NCAA
68.5Avg total
34.9Scored
33.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.934.869.7+0.147%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.132.269.3+4.960%-
Last 30 away (15)32.737.370.1-4.633%-
Last 10 (10)34.933.668.5+1.340%-
Last 5 (5)37.829.066.8+8.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)32.838.371.1-5.533%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)36.033.769.7+2.350%-
vs Weaker (8)35.832.167.9+3.662%-
This opponent (Illinois (Chi.)) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Illinois (Chi.) wins
6
Indiana State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASt. Marys (CA)61-84
10/11/26HNC Greensboro82-72
07/11/26HRobert Morris79-56
02/11/26HSt. Francis (ILL)96-47
08/03/26HNorthern Iowa69-84
07/03/26HDrake72-51
06/03/26AMurray State92-79
01/03/26AIndiana State63-79
25/02/26HBradley93-86 OT
21/02/26HValparaiso67-71
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HEarlham109-37
12/11/26HWisc. Milwaukee73-82
07/11/26ABall State69-66
03/11/26HCharlotte70-78
06/03/26AValparaiso62-63
01/03/26HIllinois (Chi.)79-63
26/02/26ASouthern Illinois55-66
22/02/26ABelmont70-87
19/02/26HNorthern Iowa60-81
15/02/26AValparaiso75-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois (Chi.)
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWL75%
HomeWWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %75%100%0%
Points / game79.585.761.0
Allowed / game64.858.384.0
Point differential+14.8+27.3-23.0
Avg total144.2144.0145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Indiana State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLW50%
HomeLLW33%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%33%100%
Points / game80.284.069.0
Allowed / game65.865.766.0
Point differential+14.5+18.3+3.0
Avg total146.0149.7135.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State440100%95.067.5+27.5
2 Drake330100%85.762.7+23.0
3 Illinois (Chi.)43175%79.564.8+14.8
4 Belmont43175%73.562.2+11.2
5 Southern Illinois32167%85.070.0+15.0
6 Valparaiso32167%77.373.0+4.3
7 Indiana State42250%80.265.8+14.5
8 Evansville42250%76.076.2-0.2
9 Bradley52340%59.856.4+3.4
10 Northern Iowa52340%85.286.0-0.8
11 Illinois State41325%81.275.8+5.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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