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Murray State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 58-47
26-21 32-26
Position#214
Record9-7
FormLWLWW
Points / game75.2
Allowed / game68.7
vs
Position#248
Record10-6
FormWLWWW
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game73.8
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Murray State v Valparaiso
30 Jan 2027
MURR v VALP
upcoming
10 Jan 2026
MURR92
VALP79
11 Jan 2025
MURR58
VALP47
24 Feb 2024
MURR80
VALP68
02 Mar 2023
MURR78
VALP50
26 Feb 2023
MURR77
VALP76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murray State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Murray StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#319
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H04/12
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#94
W
73-53
73
53
+20
H08/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#182
L
76-81 OT
76
81
-5
A14/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
74-84
74
84
-10
A19/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#158
L
49-66
49
66
-17
H23/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#323
L
90-94 OT
90
94
-4
A24/12
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#75
W
71-68
71
68
+3
H25/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
68-74
68
74
-6
H03/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
W
66-59
66
59
+7
A05/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
71-68
71
68
+3
A09/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-25
30-36
33-33
40-20
39-33
28-34
26-41
48-43
14-34
35-32
29-38
42-33
34-36
37-32
25-33
43-41
26-26
40-33
33-27
38-41
140.9Avg total
70.1Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)75.268.7143.9+6.556%
Season at home (9)74.462.6137.0+11.967%
Season away (7)76.176.6152.7-0.443%
Last 10 (10)70.170.8140.9-0.750%
Last 5 (5)73.272.6145.8+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)68.372.0140.3-3.722%
vs Similar ◀ (16)68.169.7137.8-1.644%
vs Weaker (4)78.071.0149.0+7.075%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
DePaul
#269
L
70-89
70
89
-19
A29/11
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H06/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
93-77
93
77
+16
H14/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#172
L
73-95
73
95
-22
A18/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
W
76-73
76
73
+3
A20/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#539
W
107-57
107
57
+50
H22/12
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
75-81 OT
75
81
-6
A29/12
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
73-72
73
72
+1
A02/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
80-73
80
73
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
W
98-95 OT
98
95
+3
H09/01
NCAA
1H
2H
29-42
41-47
26-35
34-31
36-31
57-46
30-41
43-54
26-42
50-31
47-29
60-28
30-36
33-27
35-34
38-38
43-36
37-37
45-40
41-46
158.3Avg total
80.5Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)80.773.8154.5+6.962%
Season at home (10)86.168.8154.9+17.380%
Season away (6)71.782.2153.8-10.533%
Last 10 (10)80.577.8158.3+2.760%
Last 5 (5)86.675.6162.2+11.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)68.880.2148.9-11.515%
vs Similar ◀ (6)82.075.0157.0+7.083%
vs Weaker (3)90.070.7160.7+19.3100%
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.4-3.41st half: -1.9-1.92nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +4.9+4.9
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -3.4-3.41st half: -1.9-1.92nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +4.9+4.9
Murray StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Murray StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#319
W
33-25
33
25
+8
H04/12
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#94
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H08/12
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#182
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A14/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A19/12
NCAA
Nebraska
#158
L
14-34
14
34
-20
H23/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#323
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A24/12
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#75
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H25/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#141
L
25-33
25
33
-8
H03/01
NCAA
Drake
#8
D
26-26
26
26
+0
A05/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
33-27
33
27
+6
A09/01
NCAA
61.8Avg total
29.2Scored
32.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.633.365.9-0.740%-
Last 30 at home (17)31.931.062.9+0.947%-
Last 30 away (13)33.536.369.8-2.831%-
Last 10 (10)29.232.661.8-3.430%-
Last 5 (5)29.432.061.4-2.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)31.837.068.8-5.222%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)31.431.963.3-0.444%-
vs Weaker (4)33.534.267.8-0.850%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
DePaul
#269
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A29/11
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
26-35
26
35
-9
H06/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H14/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#172
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A18/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A20/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#539
W
47-29
47
29
+18
H22/12
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A29/12
NCAA
Missouri State
#334
W
35-34
35
34
+1
A02/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#107
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H04/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H09/01
NCAA
71.3Avg total
34.7Scored
36.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.137.072.1-1.950%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.834.972.8+2.965%-
Last 30 away (13)31.539.871.3-8.231%-
Last 10 (10)34.736.671.3-1.950%-
Last 5 (5)40.035.075.0+5.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)32.938.871.6-5.935%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)36.534.771.2+1.883%-
vs Weaker (3)38.036.774.7+1.367%-
This opponent (Murray State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Murray State wins
0
Valparaiso wins
DateGameScore
24/02/24Murray State v Valparaiso80-68
03/03/23Murray State v Valparaiso78-50
26/02/23Murray State v Valparaiso77-76 OT
04/12/22Valparaiso v Murray State70-77 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/25ANorthern Iowa71-68
05/01/25ADrake66-59
03/01/25HIllinois State68-74
25/12/24HLoyola Chicago71-68
24/12/24ACharlotte90-94 OT
23/12/24HNebraska49-66
19/12/24AIndiana State74-84
14/12/24AWestern Kentucky76-81 OT
08/12/24HSoutheast Missouri State73-53
04/12/24HEvansville63-61
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/25HIndiana State98-95 OT
04/01/25HNorthern Iowa80-73
02/01/25AMissouri State73-72
29/12/24ABradley75-81 OT
22/12/24HCalumet College107-57
20/12/24AWestern Michigan76-73
18/12/24AOhio State73-95
14/12/24HCentral Michigan93-77
06/12/24HDrake60-66
29/11/24ADePaul70-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murray State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW56%
HomeWWLWL67%
AwayLLLWW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %56%67%43%
Points / game75.274.476.1
Allowed / game68.762.676.6
Point differential+6.5+11.9-0.4
Avg total143.9137.0152.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%44%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %12%0%29%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW62%
HomeLWWWW80%
AwayLLWLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games16106
Win %62%80%33%
Points / game80.786.171.7
Allowed / game73.868.882.2
Point differential+6.9+17.3-10.5
Avg total154.5154.9153.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %12%10%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake1513287%71.958.1+13.7
2 Bradley1714382%78.967.6+11.3
3 Belmont1712571%81.878.8+3.0
4 Illinois (Chi.)1711665%79.572.6+6.8
5 Valparaiso1610662%80.773.8+6.9
6 Illinois State1610662%77.470.7+6.7
7 Northern Iowa169756%76.967.8+9.2
8 Murray State169756%75.268.7+6.5
9 Indiana State179853%83.878.4+5.5
10 Evansville1661038%65.268.9-3.7
11 Southern Illinois1651131%72.076.2-4.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Murray State263258
Valparaiso212647
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