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Incarnate Word vs TX A&M Commerce Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 20 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 72-76 (OT)
25-36 41-30 6-10
Position#343
Record8-17
FormWLLWL
Points / game73.1
Allowed / game78.0
vs
Position#290
Record9-17
FormLLWLL
Points / game71.6
Allowed / game74.4
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Incarnate Word v TX A&M Commerce
07 Dec 2024
INCA65
TX A53
19 Feb 2024
INCA72
TX A76
25 Feb 2023
INCA79
TX A75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Incarnate Word winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
TX A&M Commerce winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Incarnate WordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern St.
#334
L
71-97
71
97
-26
A13/01
NCAA
McNeese State
#7
L
66-80
66
80
-14
H20/01
NCAA
Nicholls State
#138
L
74-78 OT
74
78
-4
H23/01
NCAA
Houston Christian
#358
W
79-75
79
75
+4
H27/01
NCAA
TX A&M Commerce
#290
L
66-71
66
71
-5
A01/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#327
W
82-80
82
80
+2
A03/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#244
L
64-76
64
76
-12
A06/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#358
L
83-86
83
86
-3
A10/02
NCAA
Lamar
#146
W
76-67
76
67
+9
H13/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#334
L
61-81
61
81
-20
H17/02
NCAA
1H
2H
35-38
36-59
30-42
36-38
35-34
27-28
37-31
42-44
33-34
33-37
38-36
44-44
24-36
40-40
41-45
42-41
35-33
41-34
34-34
27-47
151.3Avg total
72.2Scored
79.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)73.178.0151.1-4.932%
Season at home (10)75.073.5148.5+1.550%
Season away (15)71.881.0152.8-9.220%
Last 10 (10)72.279.1151.3-6.930%
Last 5 (5)73.278.0151.2-4.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)69.877.2147.0-7.525%
vs Similar ◀ (10)72.180.5152.6-8.420%
vs Weaker (3)88.774.7163.3+14.067%
This opponent (TX A&M Commerce) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TX A&M CommerceUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SE Louisiana
#244
W
68-52
68
52
+16
A20/01
NCAA
Lamar
#146
L
65-76
65
76
-11
A23/01
NCAA
Nicholls State
#138
L
84-87 OT
84
87
-3
H27/01
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#78
L
54-69
54
69
-15
H30/01
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#343
W
71-66
71
66
+5
H01/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#334
L
57-70
57
70
-13
A03/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#7
L
51-77
51
77
-26
A06/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#327
W
89-83
89
83
+6
H10/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#244
L
77-79 OT
77
79
-2
H13/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#78
L
63-86
63
86
-23
A17/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-22
34-30
21-29
44-47
27-29
38-36
20-24
34-45
34-33
37-33
22-33
35-37
26-30
25-47
41-38
48-45
35-36
31-30
32-44
31-42
142.4Avg total
67.9Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)71.674.4146.0-2.835%
Season at home (13)85.372.8158.1+12.554%
Season away (13)57.876.0133.8-18.215%
Last 10 (10)67.974.5142.4-6.630%
Last 5 (5)67.479.0146.4-11.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)62.479.5141.9-17.120%
vs Similar ◀ (9)74.175.0149.1-0.933%
vs Weaker (5)90.669.0159.6+21.660%
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -2.1-2.11st half: -2.6-2.62nd half2nd half: -4.4-4.42nd half: -3.5-3.5
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -2.1-2.11st half: -2.6-2.62nd half2nd half: -4.4-4.42nd half: -3.5-3.5
Incarnate WordTX A&M Commerce
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Incarnate WordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northwestern St.
#334
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A13/01
NCAA
McNeese State
#7
L
30-42
30
42
-12
H20/01
NCAA
Nicholls State
#138
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H23/01
NCAA
Houston Christian
#358
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H27/01
NCAA
TX A&M Commerce
#290
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A01/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#327
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A03/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#244
L
24-36
24
36
-12
A06/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#358
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A10/02
NCAA
Lamar
#146
W
35-33
35
33
+2
H13/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#334
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H17/02
NCAA
70.5Avg total
34.2Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.835.470.2-0.643%-
Last 30 at home (12)37.031.768.7+5.367%-
Last 30 away (18)33.437.971.3-4.528%-
Last 10 (10)34.236.370.5-2.140%-
Last 5 (5)34.436.871.2-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)31.636.668.2-4.938%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)36.034.670.6+1.440%-
vs Weaker (3)44.733.378.0+11.367%-
This opponent (TX A&M Commerce) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TX A&M CommerceLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SE Louisiana
#244
W
34-22
34
22
+12
A20/01
NCAA
Lamar
#146
L
21-29
21
29
-8
A23/01
NCAA
Nicholls State
#138
L
27-29
27
29
-2
H27/01
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#78
L
20-24
20
24
-4
H30/01
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#343
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H01/02
NCAA
Northwestern St.
#334
L
22-33
22
33
-11
A03/02
NCAA
McNeese State
#7
L
26-30
26
30
-4
A06/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#327
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H10/02
NCAA
SE Louisiana
#244
L
35-36
35
36
-1
H13/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#78
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A17/02
NCAA
61.0Avg total
29.2Scored
31.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.735.468.1-2.633%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.333.571.7+4.847%-
Last 30 away (15)27.237.364.5-10.120%-
Last 10 (10)29.231.861.0-2.630%-
Last 5 (5)31.236.267.4-5.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)27.537.164.5-9.620%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)31.834.466.2-2.733%-
vs Weaker (5)44.234.078.2+10.260%-
This opponent (Incarnate Word) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Incarnate Word wins
2
TX A&M Commerce wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/02/24HNorthwestern St.61-81
13/02/24HLamar76-67
10/02/24AHouston Christian83-86
06/02/24ASE Louisiana64-76
03/02/24ANew Orleans82-80
01/02/24ATX A&M Commerce66-71
27/01/24HHouston Christian79-75
23/01/24HNicholls State74-78 OT
20/01/24HMcNeese State66-80
13/01/24ANorthwestern St.71-97
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/02/24ATexas A&M-CC63-86
13/02/24HSE Louisiana77-79 OT
10/02/24HNew Orleans89-83
06/02/24AMcNeese State51-77
03/02/24ANorthwestern St.57-70
01/02/24HIncarnate Word71-66
30/01/24HTexas A&M-CC54-69
27/01/24HNicholls State84-87 OT
23/01/24ALamar65-76
20/01/24ASE Louisiana68-52

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Incarnate Word
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL32%
HomeLLWWL50%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251015
Win %32%50%20%
Points / game73.175.071.8
Allowed / game78.073.581.0
Point differential-4.9+1.5-9.2
Avg total151.1148.5152.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%10%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)50% (4)33% (6)
Overtime %4%10%0%
TX A&M Commerce
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL35%
HomeLLWWL54%
AwayWLLLL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %35%54%15%
Points / game71.685.357.8
Allowed / game74.472.876.0
Point differential-2.8+12.5-18.2
Avg total146.0158.1133.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%31%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)40% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %12%23%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southland conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 McNeese State2623388%80.460.8+19.5
2 Texas A&M-CC25151060%75.366.6+8.7
3 Lamar26151158%80.574.7+5.8
4 Stephen F. Austin25141156%76.971.0+5.9
5 Nicholls State25131252%72.374.8-2.5
6 SE Louisiana27131448%69.370.7-1.4
7 TX A&M Commerce2691735%71.674.4-2.8
8 Incarnate Word2581732%73.178.0-4.9
9 New Orleans2681831%74.880.2-5.4
10 Northwestern St.2681831%70.376.2-6.0
11 Houston Christian2461825%70.882.5-11.7
12 UTRGV2561924%73.580.5-7.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Incarnate Word2541672
TX A&M Commerce36301076
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