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Japan vs Lebanon Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 01 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 11:00
Scheduled
Position#16
Record6-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game74.8
vs
Position#18
Record6-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game89.6
Allowed / game74.6
EuropeWorld CupRound 6
Other2027
Meetings · Japan v Lebanon
01 Mar 2027
JAPA v LEBA
upcoming
12 Aug 2025
JAPA73
LEBA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Japan win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Lebanon win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

JapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Guam
#14
W
102-63
102
63
+39
A10/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
L
73-97
73
97
-24
H12/08
Asia Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
90-64
90
64
+26
H28/11
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
80-73
80
73
+7
A01/12
World Cup
China
#30
L
80-87
80
87
-7
H26/02
World Cup
South Korea
#46
W
78-72
78
72
+6
H01/03
World Cup
China
#30
W
92-73
92
73
+19
A03/07
World Cup
South Korea
#46
L
79-81
79
81
-2
A06/07
World Cup
Saudi Arabia
#59
W
106-78
106
78
+28
A27/08
World Cup
Qatar
#50
W
123-70
123
70
+53
H31/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-15
25-18
26-19
24-11
19-23
22-30
23-28
9-16
23-10
22-12
20-20
25-22
17-22
25-14
15-21
23-16
21-11
26-22
9-25
24-29
15-16
27-22
12-17
24-17
22-21
28-19
24-19
18-14
25-25
12-10
17-20
25-26
33-22
23-18
34-12
16-26
29-11
24-23
40-11
30-25
166.1Avg total
90.3Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)91.074.8165.8+16.275%
Season at home (4)92.873.2166.0+19.575%
Season away (4)89.276.2165.5+13.075%
Last 10 (10)90.375.8166.1+14.570%
Last 5 (5)95.674.8170.4+20.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.684.6155.1-14.029%
vs Similar ◀ (5)79.485.2164.6-5.840%
vs Weaker (18)89.571.1160.6+18.489%
This opponent (Lebanon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LebanonLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Japan
#6
W
97-73
97
73
+24
A12/08
Asia Cup
New Zealand
#4
L
86-90
86
90
-4
A14/08
Asia Cup
Qatar
#50
W
75-74
75
74
+1
A27/11
World Cup
Qatar
#50
L
83-86
83
86
-3
H30/11
World Cup
Saudi Arabia
#59
W
94-64
94
64
+30
H27/02
World Cup
India
#91
W
99-56
99
56
+43
H29/06
World Cup
Saudi Arabia
#59
W
88-82
88
82
+6
A02/07
World Cup
India
#91
W
98-72
98
72
+26
A05/07
World Cup
South Korea
#46
W
93-74
93
74
+19
H27/08
World Cup
China
#30
L
87-89
87
89
-2
A31/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
30-22
28-23
16-9
32-12
13-18
17-26
24-34
21-9
12-17
17-17
25-31
19-14
19-21
17-25
28-26
26-17
25-16
28-13
15-18
25-13
28-16
25-14
21-13
22-19
19-23
22-24
25-16
28-15
20-23
27-16
23-18
18-24
20-17
25-19
30-14
14-23
28-23
27-21
18-22
166.0Avg total
90.0Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.674.6164.2+15.075%
Season at home (4)92.270.0162.2+22.275%
Season away (4)87.079.2166.2+7.875%
Last 10 (10)90.076.0166.0+14.070%
Last 5 (5)93.074.6167.6+18.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)79.496.6176.0-17.114%
vs Similar ◀ (1)97.073.0170.0+24.0100%
vs Weaker (22)90.277.5167.7+12.882%
This opponent (Japan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.5+5.5Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.4+2.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.5+5.5Q1: +6.3+6.3Q2Q2: +4.6+4.6Q2: +1.8+1.8Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.4+2.4
JapanLebanon
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
JapanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Guam
#14
W
52-33
52
33
+19
A10/08
Asia Cup
Lebanon
#5
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H12/08
Asia Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H28/11
World Cup
Chinese Taipei
#62
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A01/12
World Cup
China
#30
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H26/02
World Cup
South Korea
#46
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H01/03
World Cup
China
#30
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A03/07
World Cup
South Korea
#46
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A06/07
World Cup
Saudi Arabia
#59
W
56-40
56
40
+16
A27/08
World Cup
Qatar
#50
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H31/08
World Cup
82.9Avg total
46.5Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.339.380.6+2.157%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.337.880.1+4.656%-
Last 30 away (14)40.241.081.2-0.857%-
Last 10 (10)46.536.482.9+10.190%-
Last 5 (5)47.637.485.0+10.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)34.144.378.4-10.114%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)34.845.880.6-11.00%-
vs Weaker (18)45.935.581.4+10.489%-
This opponent (Lebanon) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LebanonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Japan
#6
W
53-41
53
41
+12
A12/08
Asia Cup
New Zealand
#4
W
45-30
45
30
+15
A14/08
Asia Cup
Qatar
#50
W
33-26
33
26
+7
A27/11
World Cup
Qatar
#50
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H30/11
World Cup
Saudi Arabia
#59
W
51-33
51
33
+18
H27/02
World Cup
India
#91
W
53-29
53
29
+24
H29/06
World Cup
Saudi Arabia
#59
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A02/07
World Cup
India
#91
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A05/07
World Cup
South Korea
#46
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H27/08
World Cup
China
#30
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A31/08
World Cup
80.3Avg total
44.2Scored
36.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.240.383.6+2.960%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.840.382.1+1.562%-
Last 30 away (17)44.440.484.7+4.059%-
Last 10 (10)44.236.180.3+8.170%-
Last 5 (5)44.439.283.6+5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.348.986.1-11.614%-
vs Similar ◀ (1)53.041.094.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker (22)44.737.682.3+7.173%-
This opponent (Japan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Japantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Japan: 81.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀35%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers27.014.2
52.6%
-28.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.212.6
33.9%
-37.8
🏀 Free throws18.914.8
78.3%
-14.8
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 58% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lebanontheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lebanon: 88.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.4 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 16% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.526.2
55.2%
-52.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.97.2
32.9%
-21.6
🏀 Free throws18.914.1
74.6%
-14.1
They take 69.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Japan
WWLWWLWWLW
Lebanon
LWWWWWLWLW
#16
League position
#18
+6.7
Net rating
+10.4
106.5
Offensive rating
110.9
99.8
Defensive rating
100.4
51.6%
Effective FG%
53.3%
47.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
16.8%
Turnover %
17.1%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
32.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.27
33.9%
3-point %
32.9%
73.5%
Assist %
65.3%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Japan   ■ Lebanon
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Japan wins
1
Lebanon wins
DateGameScore
12/08/25Japan v Lebanon73-97
Japanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/26HQatar123-70
27/08/26ASaudi Arabia106-78
06/07/26ASouth Korea79-81
03/07/26AChina92-73
01/03/26HSouth Korea78-72
26/02/26HChina80-87
01/12/25AChinese Taipei80-73
28/11/25HChinese Taipei90-64
12/08/25HLebanon73-97
10/08/25AGuam102-63
Lebanonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/08/26AChina87-89
27/08/26HSouth Korea93-74
05/07/26AIndia98-72
02/07/26ASaudi Arabia88-82
29/06/26HIndia99-56
27/02/26HSaudi Arabia94-64
30/11/25HQatar83-86
27/11/25AQatar75-74
14/08/25ANew Zealand86-90
12/08/25AJapan97-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Japan
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW75%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %75%75%75%
Points / game91.092.889.2
Allowed / game74.873.276.2
Point differential+16.2+19.5+13.0
Avg total165.8166.0165.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lebanon
World Cup 2027
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL75%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %75%75%75%
Points / game89.692.287.0
Allowed / game74.670.079.2
Point differential+15.0+22.2+7.8
Avg total164.2162.2166.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%75%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada880100%100.981.1+19.8
4 Turkey880100%91.972.6+19.2
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Dominican Republic65183%93.377.8+15.5
10 Mexico65183%93.781.8+11.8
11 Senegal97278%86.370.6+15.8
12 South Sudan97278%82.068.6+13.4
13 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
14 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
15 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
16 Japan86275%91.074.8+16.2
17 Argentina86275%87.271.5+15.8
18 Lebanon86275%89.674.6+15.0
19 Brazil86275%90.878.1+12.6
20 Uruguay86275%84.473.4+11.0
21 Serbia86275%87.178.1+9.0
22 Ukraine129375%83.275.9+7.3
23 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
24 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
25 Mali96367%81.478.0+3.4
26 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
27 Spain85362%90.178.8+11.4
28 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
29 Italy85362%83.076.9+6.1
30 China85362%84.581.6+2.9
31 Georgia85362%85.582.6+2.9
32 Finland85362%80.679.2+1.4
33 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
34 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
35 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
36 Tunisia95456%71.769.9+1.8
37 Portugal84450%83.879.5+4.2
38 Hungary126650%80.977.9+3.0
39 Greece84450%77.174.5+2.6
40 Latvia84450%83.481.2+2.1
41 Lithuania84450%85.984.6+1.2
42 Bahamas84450%93.292.1+1.1
43 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
44 Slovenia84450%84.083.8+0.2
45 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
46 South Korea84450%78.479.1-0.8
47 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
48 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
49 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
50 Qatar84450%75.981.5-5.6
51 Montenegro84450%71.879.1-7.4
52 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
53 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
54 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
55 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
56 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
57 Bosnia & Herzegovina83538%78.177.1+1.0
58 Estonia83538%80.483.0-2.6
59 Saudi Arabia83538%76.479.6-3.2
60 Iceland83538%81.293.8-12.5
61 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
62 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
63 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
64 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
65 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
66 Chile72529%71.380.6-9.3
67 Israel82625%79.283.5-4.2
68 Puerto Rico82625%85.990.2-4.4
69 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
70 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
71 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
72 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
73 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
74 Panama82625%75.488.9-13.5
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.
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