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Larisa vs AEK Athens Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 30 Jan 2021
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 76-75
21-20 30-23 13-17 12-15
Position#11
Record3-9
FormWLWLL
Points / game75.7
Allowed / game81.7
Larisa 🏆
Greece
vs
Position#3
Record10-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game79.6
Allowed / game71.5
GreeceBasket LeagueRound 13
Domestic2020-21
Meetings · Larisa v AEK Athens
12 Feb 2022
LAR82
AAT65
30 Jan 2021
LAR76
AAT75
22 Dec 2019
LAR76
AAT86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Larisa winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
AEK Athens winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LarisaGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
L
64-90
64
90
-26
A05/12
Basket League
PAOK
#5
W
93-91
93
91
+2
A09/12
Basket League
Ionikos
#8
L
76-97
76
97
-21
H12/12
Basket League
Aris
#9
L
84-88
84
88
-4
H16/12
Basket League
Peristeri
#6
L
78-82
78
82
-4
A19/12
Basket League
Harilaos Trikoupis
#12
W
84-58
84
58
+26
H27/12
Basket League
Iraklis
#10
L
69-73
69
73
-4
A02/01
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
W
85-81
85
81
+4
H06/01
Basket League
Lavrio
#2
L
58-66
58
66
-8
H11/01
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
89-98
89
98
-9
H24/01
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-27
25-18
11-21
13-24
20-26
26-23
18-27
29-15
22-24
19-31
17-20
18-22
21-23
26-19
21-24
16-22
23-19
17-19
18-21
20-23
27-20
18-11
13-14
26-13
16-19
23-10
15-30
15-14
19-22
16-22
19-18
31-19
17-9
11-25
14-14
16-18
25-23
24-33
17-18
23-24
160.4Avg total
78.0Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)75.781.7157.3-6.025%
Season at home (6)79.381.3160.7-2.033%
Season away (6)72.082.0154.0-10.017%
Last 10 (10)78.082.4160.4-4.430%
Last 5 (5)77.075.2152.2+1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)75.385.2160.5-9.835%
vs Similar (8)78.678.0156.6+0.638%
vs Weaker (1)71.074.0145.0-3.00%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cholet
#28
L
70-79
70
79
-9
A15/12
Champions League
Aris
#9
W
84-67
84
67
+17
H20/12
Basket League
Lavrio
#2
L
70-78
70
78
-8
A27/12
Basket League
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
W
89-72
89
72
+17
H02/01
Basket League
Hapoel Holon
#9
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A05/01
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A10/01
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
H16/01
Basket League
Minsk
#21
W
95-90
95
90
+5
A20/01
Champions League
Ionikos
#8
W
81-74
81
74
+7
H23/01
Basket League
PAOK
#5
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H27/01
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-24
26-16
16-18
11-21
15-16
27-15
21-17
21-19
13-20
22-18
19-20
16-20
19-25
32-22
21-14
17-11
19-18
13-20
21-17
18-22
18-24
19-19
25-24
13-13
15-12
19-20
19-31
22-19
20-16
20-17
27-22
28-35
14-18
19-19
20-19
28-18
26-6
18-21
17-12
15-17
154.1Avg total
78.6Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)79.671.5151.1+8.277%
Season at home (7)82.471.9154.3+10.686%
Season away (6)76.371.0147.3+5.367%
Last 10 (10)78.675.5154.1+3.150%
Last 5 (5)80.476.4156.8+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)84.088.5172.5-4.525%
vs Similar (9)81.880.6162.3+1.256%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)84.071.4155.4+12.6100%
This opponent (Larisa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.7-0.7Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: -4.4-4.4Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -0.6-0.6
LarisaAEK Athens
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LarisaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A05/12
Basket League
PAOK
#5
L
46-49
46
49
-3
A09/12
Basket League
Ionikos
#8
L
41-55
41
55
-14
H12/12
Basket League
Aris
#9
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H16/12
Basket League
Peristeri
#6
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A19/12
Basket League
Harilaos Trikoupis
#12
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H27/12
Basket League
Iraklis
#10
W
39-29
39
29
+10
A02/01
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H06/01
Basket League
Lavrio
#2
L
28-34
28
34
-6
H11/01
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
49-56
49
56
-7
H24/01
Basket League
83.3Avg total
41.0Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.841.580.2-2.737%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.441.482.8-0.143%-
Last 30 away (16)36.541.578.0-5.031%-
Last 10 (10)41.042.383.3-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)39.238.878.0+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)37.243.580.7-6.220%-
vs Similar (8)40.637.678.2+3.075%-
vs Weaker (1)35.037.072.0-2.00%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cholet
#28
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A15/12
Champions League
Aris
#9
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H20/12
Basket League
Lavrio
#2
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A27/12
Basket League
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H02/01
Basket League
Hapoel Holon
#9
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A05/01
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A10/01
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
W
34-32
34
32
+2
H16/01
Basket League
Minsk
#21
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A20/01
Champions League
Ionikos
#8
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H23/01
Basket League
PAOK
#5
W
44-27
44
27
+17
H27/01
Basket League
75.7Avg total
39.1Scored
36.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.338.080.3+4.373%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.639.484.1+5.275%-
Last 30 away (14)39.636.476.0+3.371%-
Last 10 (10)39.136.675.7+2.560%-
Last 5 (5)37.634.472.0+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)47.545.893.2+1.875%-
vs Similar (9)40.238.378.6+1.967%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)42.236.078.2+6.276%-
This opponent (Larisa) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Larisatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Larisa: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.1 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.714.5
48.8%
51.8%29.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.711.3
40.8%
35.6%33.9
🏀 Free throws18.313.7
74.9%
74.2%13.7
They take 57.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 78.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.3 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.1 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.021.4
54.9%
51.8%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.16.1
28.9%
35.6%18.3
🏀 Free throws21.816.9
77.5%
74.2%16.9
They take 60.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Larisa
LLWLWLLLWL
AEK Athens
WWWLLLWLWL
#11
League position
#3
-7.5
Net rating
+4.4
107.7
Offensive rating
108.4
115.1
Defensive rating
104.0
54.8%
Effective FG%
50.8%
55.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
23.4%
Turnover %
19.2%
34.2%
Off. rebound %
33.1%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.36
40.8%
3-point %
28.9%
57.4%
Assist %
59.6%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence107.7 · 108.4Defence115.1 · 104.0Shooting54.8% · 50.8%3-point %40.8% · 28.9%Ball care23.4% · 19.2%Off. rebounds34.2% · 33.1%Free throws0.32 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Larisa   ■ AEK Athens
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Larisa wins
2
AEK Athens wins
DateGameScore
31/10/20AEK Athens v Larisa87-68
22/12/19Larisa v AEK Athens76-86
Larisalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/21HPanathinaikos89-98
11/01/21HLavrio58-66
06/01/21HPromitheas85-81
02/01/21AIraklis69-73
27/12/20HHarilaos Trikoupis84-58
19/12/20APeristeri78-82
16/12/20HAris84-88
12/12/20HIonikos76-97
09/12/20APAOK93-91
05/12/20AKolossos Rhodes64-90
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/21HPAOK76-56
23/01/21HIonikos81-74
20/01/21AMinsk95-90
16/01/21HPromitheas75-82
10/01/21APanathinaikos75-80
05/01/21AHapoel Holon71-77
02/01/21HKolossos Rhodes89-72
27/12/20ALavrio70-78
20/12/20HAris84-67
15/12/20ACholet70-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Larisa
Basket League 2020-21
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL25%
HomeLWWLL33%
AwayLLWLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %25%33%17%
Points / game75.779.372.0
Allowed / game81.781.382.0
Point differential-6.0-2.0-10.0
Avg total157.3160.7154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
AEK Athens
Basket League 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW77%
HomeWWLWW86%
AwayWWWLL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %77%86%67%
Points / game79.682.476.3
Allowed / game71.571.971.0
Point differential+8.2+10.6+5.3
Avg total151.1154.3147.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%57%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos1110191%85.670.5+15.2
2 AEK Athens1310377%79.671.5+8.2
3 Lavrio139469%78.874.7+4.2
4 Promitheas117464%80.577.4+3.1
5 Peristeri138562%74.173.8+0.2
6 PAOK146843%77.480.3-2.9
7 Iraklis125742%70.675.7-5.1
8 Kolossos Rhodes135838%77.275.8+1.4
9 Aris124833%74.778.6-3.9
10 Ionikos134931%74.880.1-5.2
11 Harilaos Trikoupis134931%71.878.9-7.2
12 Larisa123925%75.781.7-6.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Larisa2130131276
AEK Athens2023171575
← all games of the day
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