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Leiden vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 31 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 81-77
19-27 27-13 19-18 16-19
Position#14
Record5-4
FormWWLLW
Points / game66.8
Allowed / game68.0
Leiden 🏆
vs
Position#7
Record7-3
FormWLLWW
Points / game93.7
Allowed / game87.9
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 5· Vijf Meihal
European cup2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leiden winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
QSTA Utd
#3
W
81-65
81
65
+16
no box
A16/12
DBL Cup
QSTA Utd
#3
L
64-74
64
74
-10
no box
H20/12
DBL Cup
Den Bosch
#2
L
55-70
55
70
-15
47avg 69
H23/12
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#18
W
78-58
78
58
+20
76avg 69
H06/01
BNXT League
Chemnitz
#2
L
58-88
58
88
-30
46avg 69
H10/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Zwolle
#12
W
76-71
76
71
+5
75avg 69
A14/01
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#1
W
70-58
70
58
+12
no box
H18/01
DBL Cup
Den Bosch
#1
L
72-87 OT
72
87
-15
no box
A21/01
DBL Cup
CSM Oradea
#17
L
77-90
77
90
-13
76avg 69
A24/01
FIBA Europe Cup
BAL Weert
#15
W
72-64
72
64
+8
65avg 69
H27/01
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-13
21-14
28-15
14-23
10-17
12-13
22-15
20-29
13-18
10-11
16-19
16-22
17-14
29-11
12-19
20-14
13-17
7-27
20-24
18-20
22-15
10-14
22-23
22-19
21-12
15-22
13-16
21-8
21-21
10-17
14-21
21-19
27-21
16-24
13-20
21-25
15-13
16-16
23-20
18-15
142.8Avg total
70.3Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)66.868.0134.8-1.256%
Season at home (4)73.078.8151.8-5.850%
Season away (5)61.859.4121.2+2.460%
Last 10 (10)70.372.5142.8-2.250%
Last 5 (5)73.474.0147.4-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)65.878.8144.5-13.025%
vs Similar (9)76.171.9148.0+4.278%
vs Weaker (10)83.566.9150.4+16.690%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Leiden
#14
L
79-82
79
82
-3
74avg 83
H13/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
70-74
70
74
-4
64avg 83
H17/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#16
W
88-81
88
81
+7
82avg 83
A23/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
W
116-93
116
93
+23
121avg 83
H29/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
101-96
101
96
+5
98avg 83
A06/01
Lega A
CSM Oradea
#17
W
100-81
100
81
+19
98avg 83
H10/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Venezia
#4
L
92-103
92
103
-11
84avg 83
H14/01
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
69-81
69
81
-12
56avg 83
H21/01
Lega A
Chemnitz
#2
W
90-78
90
78
+12
88avg 83
H24/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Cremona
#11
W
83-82
83
82
+1
80avg 83
A28/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-19
27-20
21-19
13-24
18-17
21-22
18-17
13-18
18-21
19-24
24-21
27-15
39-17
31-24
25-28
21-24
24-26
33-24
23-20
21-26
26-19
26-19
29-16
19-27
22-31
25-29
18-26
27-17
20-27
20-20
16-17
13-17
25-21
20-16
18-20
27-21
19-12
20-23
26-22
18-25
173.9Avg total
88.8Scored
85.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)93.787.9181.6+5.870%
Season at home (6)92.384.2176.5+8.267%
Season away (4)95.893.5189.2+2.275%
Last 10 (10)88.885.1173.9+3.760%
Last 5 (5)86.885.0171.8+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)81.497.2178.6-15.912%
vs Similar (15)90.088.0178.0+2.053%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)93.782.8176.5+10.883%
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.5-1.5
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.5-1.5
LeidenVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
QSTA Utd
#3
W
39-27
39
27
+12
A16/12
DBL Cup
QSTA Utd
#3
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H20/12
DBL Cup
Den Bosch
#2
L
23-29
23
29
-6
H23/12
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#18
W
46-25
46
25
+21
H06/01
BNXT League
Chemnitz
#2
L
20-44
20
44
-24
H10/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Zwolle
#12
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A14/01
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#1
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H18/01
DBL Cup
Den Bosch
#1
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A21/01
DBL Cup
CSM Oradea
#17
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A24/01
FIBA Europe Cup
BAL Weert
#15
W
31-29
31
29
+2
H27/01
BNXT League
65.3Avg total
32.3Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)37.234.371.6+2.966%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.433.970.3+2.671%-
Last 30 away (15)38.034.872.8+3.260%-
Last 10 (10)32.333.065.3-0.750%-
Last 5 (5)34.635.069.6-0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)31.239.570.8-8.225%-
vs Similar (9)37.134.972.0+2.267%-
vs Weaker (10)41.631.673.2+10.090%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Leiden
#14
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H13/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H17/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#16
L
37-45
37
45
-8
A23/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
W
70-41
70
41
+29
H29/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
57-50
57
50
+7
A06/01
Lega A
CSM Oradea
#17
W
52-38
52
38
+14
H10/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Venezia
#4
L
47-60
47
60
-13
H14/01
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
40-47
40
47
-7
H21/01
Lega A
Chemnitz
#2
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H24/01
FIBA Europe Cup
Cremona
#11
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A28/01
Lega A
90.2Avg total
47.1Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.244.689.8+0.647%-
Last 30 at home (16)47.642.890.3+4.856%-
Last 30 away (14)42.546.889.3-4.336%-
Last 10 (10)47.143.190.2+4.060%-
Last 5 (5)44.643.488.0+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)42.053.195.1-11.112%-
vs Similar (15)45.643.288.8+2.453%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)50.237.888.0+12.383%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 71.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.9 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.0 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.919.9
46.4%
52.2%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.27.7
36.3%
33.8%23.1
🏀 Free throws13.68.9
65.4%
73.0%8.9
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 88.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.0 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.716.9
53.3%
52.2%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.113.0
41.8%
33.8%39.0
🏀 Free throws20.915.5
74.2%
73.0%15.5
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Leiden
WLLWWLWLLW
Varese
WWLLWWWWLL
#14
League position
#7
-4.0
Net rating
+5.6
98.7
Offensive rating
111.6
102.7
Defensive rating
106.0
49.1%
Effective FG%
58.0%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.0%
16.5%
Turnover %
19.5%
25.0%
Off. rebound %
23.8%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.33
36.3%
3-point %
41.8%
67.8%
Assist %
58.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence98.7 · 111.6Defence102.7 · 106.0Shooting49.1% · 58.0%3-point %36.3% · 41.8%Ball care16.5% · 19.5%Off. rebounds25.0% · 23.8%Free throws0.21 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Leiden   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Leiden wins
0
Varese wins
DateGameScore
13/12/23Varese v Leiden79-82
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/24HBAL Weert72-64
24/01/24ACSM Oradea77-90
21/01/24ADen Bosch72-87 OT
18/01/24HDen Bosch70-58
14/01/24AZwolle76-71
10/01/24HChemnitz58-88
06/01/24HFeyenoord78-58
23/12/23HDen Bosch55-70
20/12/23HQSTA Utd64-74
16/12/23AQSTA Utd81-65
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/24ACremona83-82
24/01/24HChemnitz90-78
21/01/24HVirtus Bologna69-81
14/01/24HVenezia92-103
10/01/24HCSM Oradea100-81
06/01/24ATreviso101-96
29/12/23HReggiana116-93
23/12/23APesaro88-81
17/12/23HOlimpia Milano70-74
13/12/23HLeiden79-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Leiden
FIBA Europe Cup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL56%
HomeWWLL50%
AwayWWLWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %56%50%60%
Points / game66.873.061.8
Allowed / game68.078.859.4
Point differential-1.2-5.8+2.4
Avg total134.8151.8121.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%0%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
FIBA Europe Cup 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW70%
HomeWWLWW67%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %70%67%75%
Points / game93.792.395.8
Allowed / game87.984.293.5
Point differential+5.8+8.2+2.2
Avg total181.6176.5189.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %10%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bnei Herzliya220100%92.075.5+16.5
2 Chemnitz1110191%92.273.9+18.3
3 Bahcesehir Kol.1110191%90.576.5+14.1
4 Bilbao109190%82.968.8+14.1
5 Nymburk119282%83.772.0+11.7
6 Rostock86275%87.277.4+9.9
7 Gottingen118373%88.480.1+8.3
8 Legia118373%87.279.0+8.2
9 Varese107370%93.787.9+5.8
10 Basket Zaragoza107370%78.974.6+4.3
11 FC Porto128467%84.277.6+6.6
12 Rapid Bucuresti32167%75.770.7+5.0
13 Manisa138562%75.874.2+1.5
14 Leiden95456%66.868.0-1.2
15 CSM Oradea116555%87.985.2+2.7
16 Anwil Wloclawek63350%78.268.2+10.0
17 Gravelines-Dunkerque84450%71.567.0+4.5
18 Boras21150%91.590.0+1.5
19 Tindastoll21150%69.069.5-0.5
20 BC Kalev/Cramo42250%73.875.2-1.5
21 Kormend21150%89.592.0-2.5
22 AEK Larnaca63350%78.882.0-3.2
23 Chernomorets21150%97.0100.5-3.5
24 Spojnia Stargard63350%79.384.2-4.8
25 Trepca63350%68.275.2-7.0
26 Caledonia Gladiators63350%71.879.2-7.3
27 Jamtland21150%71.078.5-7.5
28 Sporting CP94544%86.386.8-0.4
29 Sabah Baku94544%77.783.6-5.9
30 Jonava114736%84.391.0-6.7
31 Bakken Bears62433%84.285.3-1.2
32 Donar Groningen31233%67.368.7-1.3
33 Levice62433%74.880.0-5.2
34 Balkan93633%75.185.3-10.2
35 Peja62433%82.593.3-10.8
36 Alba Fehervar41325%85.589.5-4.0
37 Brindisi41325%77.881.8-4.0
38 Keravnos82625%79.484.9-5.5
39 Kataja82625%78.285.0-6.8
40 Den Bosch61517%79.086.7-7.7
41 TSU61517%78.786.5-7.8
42 Karhu Basket61517%82.390.7-8.3
43 Norrkoping61517%70.281.7-11.5
44 Mornar Bar61517%71.885.3-13.5
45 Pardubice2020%82.085.5-3.5
46 Parnu2020%64.573.0-8.5
47 Rabotnicki3030%66.778.3-11.7
48 Nevezis2020%86.099.0-13.0
49 Anorthosis2020%75.089.0-14.0
50 Galil Elyon1010%0.020.0-20.0
51 CSU Sibiu6060%63.283.5-20.3
52 Feniks 20102020%66.0104.0-38.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 52 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Leiden1927191681
Varese2713181977
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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