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Varese vs Olimpia Milano Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 17 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 16:30
Final 70-74
18-17 21-22 18-17 13-18
Position#12
Record3-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game83.5
Allowed / game91.8
vs
Position#1
Record6-5
FormLLLWW
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game77.4
ItalyLega ARound 12· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Varese v Olimpia Milano
18 Apr 2027
VAR v MIL
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
VAR61
MIL94
15 Dec 2024
VAR94
MIL92
17 Dec 2023
VAR70
MIL74
12 Feb 2023
VAR75
MIL87
10 Oct 2021
VAR79
MIL82
06 Dec 2020
VAR70
MIL96
29 Aug 2020
VAR77
MIL110
08 Mar 2020
VAR v MIL
upcoming
13 Apr 2019
VAR84
MIL94
29 Jan 2018
VAR76
MIL72
05 Feb 2017
VAR82
MIL98
24 Jan 2016
VAR64
MIL86
23 Nov 2014
VAR97
MIL105
27 Jan 2014
VAR71
MIL76
14 Apr 2013
VAR95
MIL81
07 Feb 2013
VAR92
MIL74
22 Jan 2012
VAR74
MIL64
17 Apr 2011
VAR82
MIL71
11 Oct 2009
VAR73
MIL66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Olimpia Milano winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#38
W
97-90
97
90
+7
93avg 82
H08/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Basket Napoli
#7
L
96-97
96
97
-1
96avg 82
A11/11
Lega A
Gottingen
#8
W
109-104 OT
109
104
+5
109avg 82
A15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Scafati
#14
W
94-93
94
93
+1
92avg 82
H19/11
Lega A
TSU
#41
W
94-81
94
81
+13
94avg 82
A22/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
L
73-116
73
116
-43
55avg 82
A26/11
Lega A
Cremona
#11
L
68-75
68
75
-7
59avg 82
H03/12
Lega A
Chemnitz
#2
L
85-109
85
109
-24
72avg 82
A06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
L
81-86
81
86
-5
71avg 82
A10/12
Lega A
Leiden
#14
L
79-82
79
82
-3
74avg 82
H13/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-22
21-20
21-19
27-29
18-22
27-19
21-22
30-34
15-23
26-23
26-24
24-21
20-25
29-30
25-17
20-21
16-16
32-21
21-14
25-30
11-33
22-31
15-27
25-25
16-18
16-12
22-26
14-19
16-35
25-27
29-18
15-29
21-27
12-13
26-17
22-29
18-19
27-20
21-19
13-24
180.9Avg total
87.6Scored
93.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)83.591.8175.4-8.327%
Season at home (6)82.882.3165.2+0.550%
Season away (5)84.4103.2187.6-18.80%
Last 10 (10)87.693.3180.9-5.740%
Last 5 (5)77.293.6170.8-16.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)82.4108.0190.4-25.60%
vs Similar (16)85.888.4174.2-2.638%
vs Weaker (8)94.085.6179.6+8.488%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Olimpia MilanoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMilano
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#10
W
92-76
92
76
+16
96avg 78
H16/11
Euroleague
Venezia
#4
W
95-72
95
72
+23
98avg 78
H19/11
Lega A
Crvena zvezda
#16
W
93-71
93
71
+22
88avg 78
A24/11
Euroleague
Pistoia
#10
L
81-86
81
86
-5
79avg 78
H26/11
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#13
L
70-83
70
83
-13
61avg 78
H30/11
Euroleague
Sassari
#8
L
83-89
83
89
-6
72avg 78
A03/12
Lega A
Bayern
#15
L
84-91 OT
84
91
-7
68avg 78
A05/12
Euroleague
Partizan
#11
L
69-82
69
82
-13
63avg 78
A07/12
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#2
W
82-80
82
80
+2
78avg 78
H10/12
Lega A
Barcelona
#5
W
90-86
90
86
+4
81avg 78
A15/12
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-18
24-21
20-22
29-15
24-16
20-12
30-18
21-26
20-19
18-20
25-17
30-15
28-19
25-20
10-29
18-18
19-18
12-23
21-18
18-24
14-20
16-21
28-24
25-24
25-22
14-22
13-11
24-21
25-20
19-19
18-22
7-21
21-23
27-21
19-21
15-15
29-19
22-21
17-19
22-27
165.5Avg total
83.9Scored
81.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)80.977.4158.3+3.555%
Season at home (6)84.279.3163.5+4.867%
Season away (5)77.075.0152.0+2.040%
Last 10 (10)83.981.6165.5+2.350%
Last 5 (5)81.685.6167.2-4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)71.088.0159.0-17.00%
vs Similar (18)80.177.3157.4+2.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)79.578.4157.9+1.140%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.1-6.1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: +0.3+0.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.1-6.1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -4.6-4.6Q4: +0.3+0.3
VareseOlimpia Milano
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#38
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H08/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Basket Napoli
#7
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A11/11
Lega A
Gottingen
#8
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Scafati
#14
L
49-55
49
55
-6
H19/11
Lega A
TSU
#41
W
48-37
48
37
+11
A22/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
L
33-64
33
64
-31
A26/11
Lega A
Cremona
#11
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H03/12
Lega A
Chemnitz
#2
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A10/12
Lega A
Leiden
#14
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H13/12
FIBA Europe Cup
87.2Avg total
41.6Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.645.489.0-1.933%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.943.489.3+2.450%-
Last 30 away (16)41.647.288.8-5.619%-
Last 10 (10)41.645.687.2-4.050%-
Last 5 (5)36.847.083.8-10.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)40.857.097.8-16.20%-
vs Similar (16)42.244.686.8-2.431%-
vs Weaker (8)49.140.689.8+8.562%-
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Olimpia MilanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Anadolu Efes
#10
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H16/11
Euroleague
Venezia
#4
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H19/11
Lega A
Crvena zvezda
#16
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A24/11
Euroleague
Pistoia
#10
W
53-39
53
39
+14
H26/11
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#13
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H30/11
Euroleague
Sassari
#8
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A03/12
Lega A
Bayern
#15
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A05/12
Euroleague
Partizan
#11
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A07/12
Euroleague
Virtus Bologna
#2
W
48-44
48
44
+4
H10/12
Lega A
Barcelona
#5
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A15/12
Euroleague
81.5Avg total
42.1Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.737.877.5+1.853%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.836.577.3+4.373%-
Last 30 away (15)38.539.177.7-0.633%-
Last 10 (10)42.139.481.5+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)42.441.684.0+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)42.042.084.0+0.00%-
vs Similar (18)40.638.979.5+1.756%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)38.535.974.4+2.660%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 86.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.2 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.9 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.416.1
54.8%
53.1%32.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.811.9
35.2%
35.7%35.7
🏀 Free throws24.718.9
76.5%
76.3%18.9
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Olimpia Milanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Olimpia Milano: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.717.6
55.5%
53.1%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.511.3
39.6%
35.7%33.9
🏀 Free throws16.012.5
78.1%
76.3%12.5
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LLLLLWWWLW
Olimpia Milano
WWLLLLLWWW
#12
League position
#1
-7.0
Net rating
-0.3
106.9
Offensive rating
115.4
113.9
Defensive rating
115.6
53.7%
Effective FG%
57.4%
53.5%
Opp. effective FG%
56.9%
17.3%
Turnover %
16.7%
18.9%
Off. rebound %
26.5%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.2%
3-point %
39.6%
60.4%
Assist %
55.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.9 · 115.4Defence113.9 · 115.6Shooting53.7% · 57.4%3-point %35.2% · 39.6%Ball care17.3% · 16.7%Off. rebounds18.9% · 26.5%Free throws0.39 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Varese   ■ Olimpia Milano
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Varese wins
9
Olimpia Milano wins
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/23HLeiden79-82
10/12/23ABrindisi81-86
06/12/23AChemnitz85-109
03/12/23HCremona68-75
26/11/23ABrescia73-116
22/11/23ATSU94-81
19/11/23HScafati94-93
15/11/23AGottingen109-104 OT
11/11/23ABasket Napoli96-97
08/11/23HKeravnos97-90
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/12/23ABarcelona90-86
10/12/23HVirtus Bologna82-80
07/12/23APartizan69-82
05/12/23ABayern84-91 OT
03/12/23ASassari83-89
30/11/23HZalgiris Kaunas70-83
26/11/23HPistoia81-86
24/11/23ACrvena zvezda93-71
19/11/23HVenezia95-72
16/11/23HAnadolu Efes92-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL27%
HomeLLWWL50%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %27%50%0%
Points / game83.582.884.4
Allowed / game91.882.3103.2
Point differential-8.3+0.5-18.8
Avg total175.4165.2187.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%17%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)50% (4)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Olimpia Milano
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW55%
HomeWLWLW67%
AwayLWWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %55%67%40%
Points / game80.984.277.0
Allowed / game77.479.375.0
Point differential+3.5+4.8+2.0
Avg total158.3163.5152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%33%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Brescia1210283%88.874.7+14.1
2 Venezia129375%81.777.9+3.8
3 Virtus Bologna128467%87.878.4+9.4
4 Trento128467%85.281.2+4.0
5 Basket Napoli117464%85.580.5+4.9
6 Reggiana127558%84.682.1+2.5
7 Olimpia Milano116555%80.977.4+3.5
8 Pistoia116555%80.481.0-0.6
9 Cremona126650%85.181.5+3.6
10 Tortona125742%78.083.1-5.1
11 Scafati114736%85.588.0-2.5
12 Pesaro114736%81.587.5-6.1
13 Sassari114736%76.386.1-9.8
14 Varese113827%83.591.8-8.3
15 Treviso123925%79.283.9-4.7
16 Brindisi112918%70.081.3-11.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese1821181370
Olimpia Milano1722171874
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