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Liberty vs New Mexico State Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 15 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 73-71
46-29 27-42
Position#26
Record13-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game67.8
Liberty 🏆
USA
vs
New Mexico State
USA
Position#178
Record10-5
FormWLLWL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game68.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Liberty v New Mexico State
30 Jan 2027
LIBE v NEW
upcoming
15 Jan 2026
LIBE73
NEW 71
18 Jan 2025
LIBE68
NEW 60
29 Feb 2024
LIBE83
NEW 58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Liberty winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
New Mexico State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LibertyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#91
L
64-74
64
74
-10
A26/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
92-50
92
50
+42
H06/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
45-85
45
85
-40
A11/12
NCAA
Midway
#519
W
95-57
95
57
+38
H16/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
W
64-61
64
61
+3
A20/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
97-94 OT
97
94
+3
A28/12
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
81-73
81
73
+8
H03/01
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
78-69
78
69
+9
H04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
72-56
72
56
+16
A09/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
82-74
82
74
+8
A10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-43
31-31
55-14
37-36
19-45
26-40
50-27
45-30
29-33
35-28
41-33
41-49
46-33
35-40
27-27
51-42
34-27
38-29
34-33
48-41
146.3Avg total
77.0Scored
69.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)80.867.8148.5+13.081%
Season at home (9)87.763.0150.7+24.789%
Season away (7)71.973.9145.7-2.071%
Last 10 (10)77.069.3146.3+7.780%
Last 5 (5)82.073.2155.2+8.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)72.670.3142.9+2.278%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)78.465.4143.9+13.081%
This opponent (New Mexico State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Mexico StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia State
#332
W
77-58
77
58
+19
H26/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
77-75
77
75
+2
A03/12
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A06/12
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
70-83
70
83
-13
H13/12
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H21/12
NCAA
Southwest Mustangs
#706
W
104-33
104
33
+71
H28/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
74-89
74
89
-15
A02/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
82-89
82
89
-7
A04/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
80-64
80
64
+16
H09/01
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H11/01
NCAA
1H
2H
37-28
40-30
32-36
45-39
27-35
42-42
27-49
43-34
48-28
39-50
52-17
52-16
39-44
35-45
41-53
41-36
46-28
34-36
29-29
26-30
148.0Avg total
77.5Scored
70.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)76.468.0144.4+8.467%
Season at home (10)78.764.5143.2+14.280%
Season away (5)71.875.0146.8-3.240%
Last 10 (10)77.570.5148.0+7.050%
Last 5 (5)79.066.8145.8+12.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)67.367.7135.0-0.350%
vs Similar (17)67.868.2136.1-0.447%
vs Weaker (5)73.063.4136.4+9.660%
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +5.3+5.31st half: +3.1+3.12nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: +3.9+3.9
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +5.3+5.31st half: +3.1+3.12nd half2nd half: +2.1+2.12nd half: +3.9+3.9
LibertyNew Mexico State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LibertyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#91
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A26/11
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
W
55-14
55
14
+41
H06/12
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
19-45
19
45
-26
A11/12
NCAA
Midway
#519
W
50-27
50
27
+23
H16/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A20/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A28/12
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H03/01
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H04/01
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A09/01
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A10/01
NCAA
68.3Avg total
36.8Scored
31.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.130.667.6+6.573%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.827.867.6+12.188%-
Last 30 away (13)33.534.267.7-0.854%-
Last 10 (10)36.831.568.3+5.360%-
Last 5 (5)36.430.667.0+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (9)34.433.768.1+0.856%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)38.229.267.4+9.081%-
This opponent (New Mexico State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Mexico StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia State
#332
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H26/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A03/12
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
L
27-35
27
35
-8
A06/12
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
27-49
27
49
-22
H13/12
NCAA
Sam Houston St.
#69
W
48-28
48
28
+20
H21/12
NCAA
Southwest Mustangs
#706
W
52-17
52
17
+35
H28/12
NCAA
Florida International
#232
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A02/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#223
L
41-53
41
53
-12
A04/01
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#151
W
46-28
46
28
+18
H09/01
NCAA
Middle Tenn. St.
#179
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H11/01
NCAA
72.5Avg total
37.8Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.030.364.3+3.757%-
Last 30 at home (17)34.928.062.9+6.971%-
Last 30 away (13)32.833.266.1-0.438%-
Last 10 (10)37.834.772.5+3.140%-
Last 5 (5)41.434.275.6+7.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)31.330.361.7+1.050%-
vs Similar (17)33.530.363.8+3.253%-
vs Weaker (5)33.631.665.2+2.060%-
This opponent (Liberty) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Liberty wins
1
New Mexico State wins
DateGameScore
14/02/25New Mexico State v Liberty54-64
19/01/25Liberty v New Mexico State68-60
01/03/24Liberty v New Mexico State83-58
02/02/24New Mexico State v Liberty79-73 OT
Libertylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26ASam Houston St.82-74
09/01/26ALouisiana Tech72-56
04/01/26HJacksonville State78-69
03/01/26HKennesaw State81-73
28/12/25AFlorida International97-94 OT
20/12/25ADayton64-61
16/12/25HMidway95-57
11/12/25ANC State45-85
06/12/25HCoppin State92-50
26/11/25ABradley64-74
New Mexico Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/26HMiddle Tenn. St.55-59
09/01/26HWestern Kentucky80-64
04/01/26AMissouri State82-89
02/01/26AFlorida International74-89
28/12/25HSouthwest Mustangs104-33
21/12/25HSam Houston St.87-78
13/12/25HTulsa70-83
06/12/25AAbilene Christian69-77
03/12/25ASouth Alabama77-75
26/11/25HGeorgia State77-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Liberty
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW81%
HomeLWWWW89%
AwayLWWWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %81%89%71%
Points / game80.887.771.9
Allowed / game67.863.073.9
Point differential+13.0+24.7-2.0
Avg total148.5150.7145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%67%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %6%0%14%
New Mexico State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL67%
HomeLWWWL80%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15105
Win %67%80%40%
Points / game76.478.771.8
Allowed / game68.064.575.0
Point differential+8.4+14.2-3.2
Avg total144.4143.2146.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%50%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty1613381%80.867.8+13.0
2 New Mexico State1510567%76.468.0+8.4
3 Kennesaw State1711665%88.977.0+11.9
4 Western Kentucky1711665%81.475.5+5.9
5 Sam Houston St.1710759%84.674.8+9.8
6 Louisiana Tech1710759%68.160.3+7.8
7 Middle Tenn. St.1710759%74.868.8+6.0
8 Missouri State1710759%75.271.8+3.4
9 Florida International179853%84.978.4+6.5
10 Jacksonville State178947%73.566.7+6.8
11 UTEP1651131%69.872.6-2.8
12 Delaware1651131%65.970.8-4.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Liberty462773
New Mexico State294271
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