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Lithuania vs Italy Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 30 Nov 2025
Tip-off: 16:30
Final 81-82
19-16 20-18 15-20 27-28
Position#41
Record1-0
FormWWWLW
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game88.0
vs
Italy 🏆
Position#29
Record0-1
FormWWWLL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game81.0
EuropeWorld CupRound 2· Svyturio Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Lithuania v Italy
30 Nov 2025
LITH81
ITAL82
25 Feb 2019
LITH86
ITAL73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lithuania winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Italy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Poland
#24
W
82-48
82
48
+34
86avg 86
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
82-75
82
75
+7
78avg 86
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
94-70
94
70
+24
95avg 86
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
94-67
94
67
+27
98avg 86
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
88-107
88
107
-19
88avg 86
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
81-78
81
78
+3
76avg 86
A01/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
W
74-71
74
71
+3
69avg 86
H03/09
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
88-79
88
79
+9
86avg 86
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
76-87
76
87
-11
77avg 86
H09/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#81
W
89-88
89
88
+1
no box
A27/11
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-18
22-14
25-10
20-6
28-19
32-24
7-21
15-11
23-15
18-18
24-17
29-20
26-15
21-13
19-17
28-22
20-32
27-23
25-28
16-24
20-21
25-15
12-12
24-30
14-21
19-18
21-14
20-18
28-18
19-19
19-17
22-25
19-24
19-20
14-20
24-23
16-21
22-30
30-16
21-21
161.8Avg total
84.8Scored
77.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)89.088.0177.0+1.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)89.088.0177.0+1.0100%
Last 10 (10)84.877.0161.8+7.880%
Last 5 (5)81.680.6162.2+1.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)74.693.4168.0-18.80%
vs Similar (10)82.978.1161.0+4.860%
vs Weaker (15)86.568.8155.3+17.793%
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormItaly
Date
Competition
Iceland
#25
L
74-81
74
81
-7
no box
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
80-67
80
67
+13
75avg 73
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
67-71
67
71
-4
60avg 73
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
66-75
66
75
-9
54avg 73
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
W
78-62
78
62
+16
74avg 73
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
96-79
96
79
+17
97avg 73
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
W
67-63
67
63
+4
58avg 73
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
89-54
89
54
+35
87avg 73
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
77-84
77
84
-7
77avg 73
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
76-81
76
81
-5
no box
H27/11
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-22
20-10
27-26
18-23
17-12
31-19
12-19
20-17
10-13
17-19
23-10
17-29
12-22
20-14
13-20
21-19
18-10
14-22
21-15
25-15
22-21
22-19
28-21
24-18
10-18
20-18
19-11
18-16
24-6
16-13
27-24
22-11
11-29
29-21
16-22
21-12
21-21
13-17
20-23
22-20
148.7Avg total
77.0Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)76.081.0157.0-5.00%
Season at home (1)76.081.0157.0-5.00%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)77.071.7148.7+5.350%
Last 5 (5)81.072.2153.2+8.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.878.7160.5+3.267%
vs Similar (12)79.479.2158.7+0.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)82.770.7153.3+12.067%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +2.8+2.8
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +2.8+2.8
LithuaniaItaly
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Poland
#24
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
60-43
60
43
+17
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H30/08
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A01/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H03/09
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
47-37
47
37
+10
H06/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H09/09
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#81
L
38-51
38
51
-13
A27/11
World Cup
83.1Avg total
43.3Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.539.181.6+3.460%-
Last 30 at home (17)43.840.884.5+3.053%-
Last 30 away (13)40.837.077.8+3.869%-
Last 10 (10)43.339.883.1+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)40.241.481.6-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)38.044.482.4-6.420%-
vs Similar (10)43.739.883.5+3.970%-
vs Weaker (15)43.236.980.1+6.367%-
This opponent (Italy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ItalyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iceland
#25
L
29-32
29
32
-3
H25/11
EuroBasket
Turkey
#20
W
48-31
48
31
+17
A20/02
EuroBasket
Hungary
#35
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H23/02
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
32-36
32
36
-4
A28/08
EuroBasket
Georgia
#14
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H30/08
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A31/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#15
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H02/09
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#24
W
40-19
40
19
+21
H04/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H07/09
EuroBasket
Iceland
#60
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H27/11
World Cup
70.2Avg total
35.6Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.437.476.8+2.047%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.436.974.3+0.533%-
Last 30 away (15)41.438.079.4+3.460%-
Last 10 (10)35.634.670.2+1.030%-
Last 5 (5)37.636.674.2+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.340.780.0-1.333%-
vs Similar (12)39.238.978.1+0.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)39.734.374.0+5.350%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 85.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 21% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.222.5
57.4%
-45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.07.3
33.2%
-21.9
🏀 Free throws25.518.2
71.4%
-18.2
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Italytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Italy: 78.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.216.8
49.1%
-33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.29.6
34.0%
-28.8
🏀 Free throws21.315.7
73.7%
-15.7
They take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Nov 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Lithuania
WLWWWLWWWW
Italy
LLWWWWLLWL
#41
League position
#29
+14.1
Net rating
+12.0
111.9
Offensive rating
108.6
97.9
Defensive rating
96.7
54.7%
Effective FG%
50.0%
48.1%
Opp. effective FG%
47.6%
18.4%
Turnover %
15.4%
32.7%
Off. rebound %
30.5%
0.42
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.2%
3-point %
34.0%
74.2%
Assist %
75.0%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Lithuania   ■ Italy
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Lithuania wins
1
Italy wins
DateGameScore
25/02/19Lithuania v Italy86-73
29/11/18Italy v Lithuania70-65
27/08/13Italy v Lithuania63-79
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/25AGreat Britain89-88
09/09/25HGreece76-87
06/09/25HLatvia88-79
03/09/25HSweden74-71
01/09/25AFinland81-78
30/08/25HGermany88-107
29/08/25HMontenegro94-67
27/08/25AGreat Britain94-70
24/02/25HEstonia82-75
21/02/25APoland82-48
Italylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/25HIceland76-81
07/09/25HSlovenia77-84
04/09/25HCyprus89-54
02/09/25HSpain67-63
31/08/25ABosnia & Herzegovina96-79
30/08/25HGeorgia78-62
28/08/25AGreece66-75
23/02/25HHungary67-71
20/02/25ATurkey80-67
25/11/24HIceland74-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lithuania
World Cup 2027
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game89.0-89.0
Allowed / game88.0-88.0
Point differential+1.0-+1.0
Avg total177.0-177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
Italy
World Cup 2027
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
HomeL0%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %0%0%-
Points / game76.076.0-
Allowed / game81.081.0-
Point differential-5.0-5.0-
Avg total157.0157.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Philippines110100%87.046.0+41.0
2 Canada110100%111.075.0+36.0
3 Jordan220100%87.053.5+33.5
4 Uruguay110100%93.060.0+33.0
5 Croatia550100%96.465.6+30.8
6 Greece110100%91.064.0+27.0
7 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
8 Japan110100%90.064.0+26.0
9 Saudi Arabia220100%78.054.0+24.0
10 Turkey220100%89.065.5+23.5
11 Portugal110100%83.062.0+21.0
12 Iran220100%90.069.5+20.5
13 Germany110100%89.069.0+20.0
14 Czech Republic110100%97.080.0+17.0
15 Brazil110100%82.066.0+16.0
16 France110100%79.063.0+16.0
17 Argentina110100%80.068.0+12.0
18 Poland110100%90.078.0+12.0
19 Guinea330100%72.360.7+11.7
20 Spain110100%74.064.0+10.0
21 Dominican Republic110100%92.085.0+7.0
22 Australia110100%84.079.0+5.0
23 Iceland110100%81.076.0+5.0
24 Serbia110100%90.086.0+4.0
25 South Korea110100%80.076.0+4.0
26 Colombia110100%80.078.0+2.0
27 Jamaica110100%92.090.0+2.0
28 Estonia110100%94.093.0+1.0
29 Lebanon110100%75.074.0+1.0
30 Lithuania110100%89.088.0+1.0
31 Ukraine54180%81.473.2+8.2
32 Netherlands54180%79.873.0+6.8
33 South Sudan32167%81.364.7+16.7
34 Switzerland128467%75.466.5+8.9
35 Tunisia32167%74.770.0+4.7
36 Cameroon32167%71.369.7+1.7
37 Romania96367%75.774.0+1.7
38 Cape Verde32167%82.086.7-4.7
39 Hungary53260%82.072.8+9.2
40 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
41 Austria95456%88.077.8+10.2
42 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
43 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
44 Denmark52340%75.878.8-3.0
45 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
46 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
47 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
48 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
49 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
50 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
51 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
52 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
53 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
54 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
55 Great Britain1010%88.089.0-1.0
56 Qatar1010%74.075.0-1.0
57 Slovenia1010%93.094.0-1.0
58 Puerto Rico1010%90.092.0-2.0
59 Venezuela1010%78.080.0-2.0
60 China1010%76.080.0-4.0
61 Italy1010%76.081.0-5.0
62 New Zealand1010%79.084.0-5.0
63 Finland1010%82.089.0-7.0
64 Mexico1010%85.092.0-7.0
65 Latvia1010%78.086.0-8.0
66 Cuba1010%68.080.0-12.0
67 Nigeria2020%66.578.5-12.0
68 Rwanda2020%68.080.5-12.5
69 Georgia1010%79.092.0-13.0
70 Libya3030%66.780.3-13.7
71 Belgium1010%63.079.0-16.0
72 Chile1010%66.082.0-16.0
73 Sweden1010%80.097.0-17.0
74 Israel1010%69.089.0-20.0
75 Iraq2020%69.590.0-20.5
76 Montenegro1010%62.083.0-21.0
77 Bosnia & Herzegovina1010%71.093.0-22.0
78 India2020%54.078.0-24.0
79 Chinese Taipei1010%64.090.0-26.0
80 Panama1010%60.093.0-33.0
81 Syria2020%53.587.0-33.5
82 Bahamas1010%75.0111.0-36.0
83 Cyprus1010%60.0100.0-40.0
84 Guam1010%46.087.0-41.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 84 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Lithuania1920152781
Italy1618202882
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