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Louisville vs Notre Dame Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 76-65
38-32 38-33
Position#53
Record15-6
FormLWWLW
Points / game86.1
Allowed / game70.5
vs
Position#269
Record11-11
FormLLWLL
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game72.2
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Louisville v Notre Dame
04 Feb 2026
LOUI76
NOTR65
21 Feb 2024
LOUI50
NOTR72
22 Jan 2022
LOUI70
NOTR82
23 Feb 2021
LOUI69
NOTR57
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Notre Dame winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Montana
#186
W
94-54
94
54
+40
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
90-70
90
70
+20
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
76-80
76
80
-4
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
73-84
73
84
-11
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
75-62
75
62
+13
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
100-59
100
59
+41
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
52-83
52
83
-31
A27/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
88-74
88
74
+14
H31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
42-20
52-34
48-34
42-36
34-35
42-45
47-38
26-46
30-34
45-28
28-33
42-46
53-22
47-37
37-22
48-49
28-38
24-45
44-47
44-27
151.9Avg total
80.3Scored
71.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)86.170.5156.6+15.671%
Season at home (14)91.068.0159.0+23.086%
Season away (7)76.375.4151.7+0.943%
Last 10 (10)80.371.6151.9+8.760%
Last 5 (5)79.073.2152.2+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)62.380.0142.3-17.70%
vs Similar (6)73.780.2153.8-6.533%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)88.566.6155.1+22.095%
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Notre DameUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IPFW
#181
L
69-72
69
72
-3
H21/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-40
47
40
+7
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
L
71-72
71
72
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
61-76
61
76
-15
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
69-81
69
81
-12
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
76-89
76
89
-13
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
69-91
69
91
-22
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
68-64
68
64
+4
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
97-100 OT
97
100
-3
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
72-86
72
86
-14
A31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
24-27
45-45
22-17
25-23
31-27
40-45
34-39
27-37
39-39
30-42
34-45
42-44
33-42
36-49
24-35
44-29
44-35
29-38
31-40
41-46
147.0Avg total
69.9Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)74.072.2146.1+1.850%
Season at home (13)78.871.1149.9+7.869%
Season away (9)66.973.8140.7-6.922%
Last 10 (10)69.977.1147.0-7.220%
Last 5 (5)76.486.0162.4-9.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)68.975.2144.1-6.233%
vs Similar (11)79.272.5151.6+6.773%
vs Weaker (1)82.058.0140.0+24.0100%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: -3.0-3.02nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: -3.9-3.9
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.8+6.81st half: -3.0-3.02nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: -3.9-3.9
LouisvilleNotre Dame
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Montana
#186
W
42-20
42
20
+22
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
53-22
53
22
+31
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
28-38
28
38
-10
A27/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H31/01
NCAA
71.4Avg total
39.1Scored
32.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.431.872.2+8.667%-
Last 30 at home (21)42.531.173.6+11.476%-
Last 30 away (9)35.433.468.9+2.044%-
Last 10 (10)39.132.371.4+6.850%-
Last 5 (5)38.032.470.4+5.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)37.736.374.0+1.367%-
vs Similar (6)31.737.369.0-5.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)43.229.672.8+13.776%-
This opponent (Notre Dame) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Notre DameLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
IPFW
#181
L
24-27
24
27
-3
H21/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
22-17
22
17
+5
A31/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
31-27
31
27
+4
A03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H10/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H14/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
34-45
34
45
-11
A17/01
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A22/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
24-35
24
35
-11
H24/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H28/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A31/01
NCAA
66.2Avg total
31.6Scored
34.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.233.665.8-1.443%-
Last 30 at home (18)33.231.965.1+1.350%-
Last 30 away (12)30.736.266.8-5.533%-
Last 10 (10)31.634.666.2-3.030%-
Last 5 (5)33.239.472.6-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (18)31.736.568.2-4.828%-
vs Similar (11)32.329.361.5+3.064%-
vs Weaker (1)41.029.070.0+12.0100%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Louisville wins
4
Notre Dame wins
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26HSMU Mustangs88-74
27/01/26ADuke52-83
24/01/26HVirginia Tech85-71
18/01/26APittsburgh100-59
14/01/26HVirginia70-79
10/01/26HBoston College75-62
07/01/26HDuke73-84
03/01/26AStanford76-80
31/12/25ACalifornia90-70
20/12/25HMontana94-54
Notre Damelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/26ASyracuse72-86
28/01/26HVirginia97-100 OT
24/01/26HBoston College68-64
22/01/26ANorth Carolina69-91
17/01/26AVirginia Tech76-89
14/01/26HMiami (FL)69-81
10/01/26HClemson61-76
03/01/26ACalifornia71-72
31/12/25AStanford47-40
21/12/25HIPFW69-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW71%
HomeLWLWW86%
AwayLWLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21147
Win %71%86%43%
Points / game86.191.076.3
Allowed / game70.568.075.4
Point differential+15.6+23.0+0.9
Avg total156.6159.0151.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%71%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Notre Dame
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL50%
HomeLLLWL69%
AwayWLLLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22139
Win %50%69%22%
Points / game74.078.866.9
Allowed / game72.271.173.8
Point differential+1.8+7.8-6.9
Avg total146.1149.9140.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%38%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (8)60% (5)33% (3)
Overtime %9%8%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2221195%84.163.6+20.5
2 Virginia2319483%82.069.9+12.1
3 North Carolina2218482%83.170.6+12.5
4 Clemson2218482%76.564.5+11.9
5 Miami (FL)2217577%84.770.1+14.6
6 NC State2317674%85.872.4+13.4
7 California2216673%78.370.6+7.7
8 Louisville2115671%86.170.5+15.6
9 Virginia Tech2316770%80.074.0+6.0
10 SMU Mustangs2215768%86.577.8+8.6
11 Stanford2214864%75.973.5+2.4
12 Syracuse23131057%75.870.7+5.1
13 Wake Forest22111150%80.077.6+2.5
14 Notre Dame22111150%74.072.2+1.8
15 Georgia Tech22111150%74.574.0+0.5
16 Florida State22101245%80.879.6+1.2
17 Boston College2291341%67.268.3-1.1
18 Pittsburgh2391439%71.070.9+0.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville383876
Notre Dame323365
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